honda indy toronto

[captjohn67]

26-32 (+15.47)

now we head to Toronto for a doubleheader on the 1.755 mile street course (150 miler). Ganassi has won four of the last six, with the Penske and Andretti teams picking up a win each. Fifty points is all that seperates the top 4 in the standings. In these 6 races, the winner has never qualified worse than 6th.

Bourdais - 9 efforts here with top shelf qualifying avg of 3.55 and avg finish of 5.22 consisting of 4 podiums. The last time i said i should probably bet on him i didn't, and he made me pay for betting against him. Feel free to call me a dumbass if a i fade him here.

Kanaan - only three top 5's in 10 efforts with a piss poor 14.6 avg. There are not many times i don't entertain the thought of backing him, but i will not this weekend.

Kimball - hardly ever qualifies well and hasn't here in his 4 attempts ( 17.25 ). Has a sneaky 6th and 2nd with the other two being wrecks. He is on my radar regardless.

Montoya - if you are Carpenter, keep your distance would be my advice (obviously not this race). Forgettable 22nd + 24th in his only two. Have no vibes whatsoever on him in this spot, but would be shocked if he qualifies well.

Sato - standard crackhead 19.6 in 5 attempts. I'll bet you a six pack they have him matched with Rahal.

Rahal - one top 5 in seven efforts with a 15.0 avg ( not exactly a bold proposition on my part above)

Helio - only one podium and two top 10's in 10 efforts?? yep. Hope and pray we get Dixon -130 against him

Dixon - six top 5's in 8 starts and scooped both wins last year - here is the short fav at +400ish

Power - three podiums (2 wins) in his first 4 attempts, and nothing better than 15th in the last 4 attempts. If you feel like the wheels are coming off another championship run, you're not alone. Melt down city coming your way this weekend. Hopeful fade even tho his avg qualifying is 5.5.

Hinch - best was 8th in four efforts

Conway - it seems like Long Beach was a looong time ago, doesn't it?? the last three here were a 3rd, 3rd and a seventh and he hasn't finished better than 13th since Long Beach and you think that i think that he is going to win?? I do, and if i catch a pre-qualifying +2500 ( which i should) then yes i'll have some pennies on him

back with more in a little bit...

 

[captjohn67]

RHR - new rubber with a few laps to go last weekend and picks up an awesome win, and is a mere 32 points from 1st in the race for the crown. In 9 efforts here he has an avg qualif position of 8.66 and has six top 8's ( 3 podiums) He will be the second fav.

Pagenaud - 4 starts ( 9.0 qualf/ 9.25 finish ) hopefully he will be disrespected

Wilson - four top 5's ( including a win ) in 10 starts - avg quailf 5.1 -only four top 10's out of 12 races this year and mired in 14th in the points. I would not have predicted such a miserable year for him. Will entertain a matchup, but will not regret missing this darkhorse if he comes home. I just don't see it.

no Saavedra, Newgarden, Huertas, or Hawksworth writeups needed

Briscoe - 9.8 qualif/ 13.6 finish in 5 efforts - has reeled of a 8th, 4th and a 9th in the last three races this year and i expect that to continue

Marco - i couldn't begin to tell you what he will do here and neither could he. He has five top 10's here in 6 races, but i just don't trust him

i'll be back when we have some numbers up. :cheers:

 

[captjohn67]

hell, they are up.

Kimball + 3900 (0.05)
Conway +1800 (0.05)

sure as hell trimmed Bourdais down from what we usually see (+1350) and am surprised Montoya is as high as he is (+1800). I understand the Power number, i just respectfully disagree with them. Kanaan +3350 is insulting as hell, but i'm passing. Man i can't believe that number.

 

[captjohn67]

Newgarden -130 Sato
Helio +110 Power
parlay...Pagenaud -170 Dixon + Wilson -155 Conway ( 1 to win 1.61)

That'll probably be it unless a Kanaan and/or Marco surfaces. GLTA

 

[Toronto_Mike]

I live very close to the track, can hear it.
pretty slick out there!

gl capt

 

[Toronto_Mike]

haha even the pace car has slipped

 

[captjohn67]

I live very close to the track, can hear it.
pretty slick out there!

gl capt

if you're that close, you should wander over there and drink a cold one and see what's up. Appreciate the good luck Mike. I can't recall seeing the pace car ever sliding off the track like that, lol. It's a good thing they canceled it imo. Going 180 mph on the long straight is insane when you have that limited visibility. I thought they would cancel my plays, but they didn't. So I'm still live and they start at 9:30 cdt. I might skip the second race, but we'll see. Good luck today gentlemen.

 

[captjohn67]

put me down on Kanaan -145 Marco as well. That line should be more like -185 or better. Hell I wouldn't even post it, but I appreciate them doing so. Make it a good one.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

if you're that close, you should wander over there and drink a cold one and see what's up. Appreciate the good luck Mike. I can't recall seeing the pace car ever sliding off the track like that, lol. It's a good thing they canceled it imo. Going 180 mph on the long straight is insane when you have that limited visibility. I thought they would cancel my plays, but they didn't. So I'm still live and they start at 9:30 cdt. I might skip the second race, but we'll see. Good luck today gentlemen.

haha not really into it, I bitch more about the traffic it's caused!
Was watching it on the tele yesterday though seems like there was some controversy with Will Power's vehicle being able to get repaired.
it doesn't usually rain like that in Toronto, it's usually a quick spit and shower for a hour or 2 but yesterday was full day. Better today, but pretty humid now, there is still a chance of more rain coming in the afternoon

 

[captjohn67]

haha not really into it, I bitch more about the traffic it's caused!
Was watching it on the tele yesterday though seems like there was some controversy with Will Power's vehicle being able to get repaired.
it doesn't usually rain like that in Toronto, it's usually a quick spit and shower for a hour or 2 but yesterday was full day. Better today, but pretty humid now, there is still a chance of more rain coming in the afternoon

yeah, I bet it is a cluster will all the traffic. And yes, there was a lot of bitching about him being able to work on his car. They never called that first lap official, so I'd have to look into the rules to be honest with you. A.J. Foyt is always a good interview, you never know what he's going to say. He certainly implied the favoritism angle, and Helio pretty much said the same thing. Guess we'll see what mother nature has to offer and go from there. It's about time to crank em up. Cheers.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

it's only a certain area but you know what this entire city is a cluster fuck, they decided to do a 2 year construction on the only freeway that leads in and out of the city so from 4 lanes it's down to 2. Such a joke.
Anyways I am slowly getting an appreciation for motor sports, I am always curious and interested about strategy in sports so thus it was great to hear thoughts on "Strategists" yesterday, so many people make up on team for one fucking car!!!
That Kannan guy looks like a tool bag, there's got to be one dude in a sport that is just a prick and he looks like one haha.
Weather update right now is it's very cloudy, the roads have cleared up so not as slick. It's not as humid right now and if the clouds are still above it might actually be mild.
I don't think it will rain as whenever the weather report suggest "chance of thunderstorm" it's been a fail.

There was talk about the new paved roads there yesterday so if that gets wet again you will see a lot of cars spin off.

Let me know if you need any other info for weather and shit.

 

[captjohn67]

appreciate it again Mike. We saw the sun for a few minutes, but I'm guessing passing showers are possible. They're going to points to assemble the starting grid and I'm going to take a shot on Montoya +1650 for 0.10. Waiting on matchups. I don't think Power had a very good ride and will look to fade him again in theory. Kimball looked strong and Conway is lost. Let's see what they offer.

 

[captjohn67]

Wilson -135 Conway

 

[captjohn67]

Wilson already jumped to -150. They won't even post a Marco I bet. He's got problems today.

 

[captjohn67]

Kimball +100 Rahal....do you really think Rahal will put back to back good runs together?? I call bullshit.

 

[captjohn67]

think those two are the best plays on the board and I'm not going to force anything when I have a guaranteed good day sewed up. Hope I scoop these two, and I hope everyone finds nothing but winners. I'm outta here, it's time for a cold one.