By the way, the conviction of my pick is such that if I could get ATL +4.5 I'd probably take that too.
Here are in essence what I think:
1. Belichick...best coach ever
2. Brady...as cool and smart a customer as there is
3. Experience with the pressure in Super Bowls
4. Defense - I give the edge to Pats, but not as large as most, but still the edge and they keep folks out of end zone
5. If you bet agst Pats & lose you will feel like an idiot - why the hell didn't I lay 3 with the Pats? What was I thinking?
6. Under - 58.5 is a large number, particularly with Pats defense requiring teams to grind out to score...Belichick is going to try and prevent long downfield passes to Julio imo and play a tough bend no break defense with longer drives for ATL. Can he succeed is the Question? If not then Under in trouble. I ain't too confident that's why I bought the .5. I do feel good abt the 1H wager more than the game under
7. Brady & company are methodical & will have deliberate drives and try and eat up clock. It's old saying, you cannot score if you do not have the ball
8. NE is very good with a lead in last 5 minutes. If score is close with NE up, they're good at grinding for 5 minutes.
9. All that said, as I said a few weeks back in Discussion thread, this aint your old Falcons...they have weapons (plural) and that's scary for this bet
The thing abt Super Bowl, kinda forced to bet. If this was a MNF game in Mexico for example (neutral site)...I'd probably bet OVER for game and that's it. But this is Super Bowl and I just not going to put my $$ agst Belichick & Brady
