Home Team Stats off Game 1 Loss

[JPicks]

Since so many teams have lost their first home game this year I thought I'd look at the last 3 years and see how those teams have responded in the 2nd game.

Home teams have lost the first home game of a series 10 times in the last 3 years. They are 9-1 SU in the 2nd game, 7-3 ATS (some of those being close covers), and 3-7 O/U. The list includes

'08 Playoffs

PHI@DET Pistons led by 15 in game one midway through the 3rd period before losing SU in game 1. Pistons won game 2 by 17. Total sails over by 25 points.

Utah@HOU The only road team in the last three years to take both road games to start the series. Total goes under by 9 points.

'07 Playoffs

NJN@TOR Nets steal game one in Toronto while the Raptors squeaked out a 6 point win in game 2 to cover a 5.5 point spread. Under covers by 22 points.

GSW@DAL Warriors shock the world with game 1 win against the #1 seeded Mavericks. Mavericks cover a 9.5 point spread in game 2 winning by 12. Total goes over by 2.

DEN@SAN Nugget grab home court while the Spurs covered game 2 by a half point. Total goes under by 9.

SAN@PHX Spurs do to the Suns what the Nuggets did to them. After stealing game 1 in Phx they mail it in and get beat by 20 in game 2 while the total falls 23 points short.

'06 Playoffs

IND@NJN Jersey loses game 1 but gets the cover winning by 15 in game 2. Under cashes 2 points short of the listed total.

MIA@DET Heat win game 1 and get game 2 cover. They covered 5 of 6 in the series while every game goes under.

NJN@MIA Jersey yet again involved in a game 1 upset. After surprising the Heat in game 1 they go down by 22 in game two while the total sailed over by 13.

PHX@DAL Suns win game 1 and cover game 2 while the total in Game 2 fell 19 points short.


We have Boston, San Antonio, Portland and Orlando all in this scenario already I'm going to update this thread as the playoffs go on. Probably add a few more years preceding this list as well.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I looked at your post pretty quick. But can we further analyze and say the more experienced team who loses in game 1, usually comes back and takes care of business in game 2?

 

[JPicks]

I looked at your post pretty quick. But can we further analyze and say the more experienced team who loses in game 1, usually comes back and takes care of business in game 2?

Not really. In fact the 3 teams that didn't cover were the '06 Mavs (nba finals), '06 Pistons (still very much in their prime) and the '08 Rockets (who happened to lose SU). I'd say the more experienced teams (who won the game 1 road games) are more likely to mail in game 2.

 

[tbone14]

damnit, i got my hopes up when i opened this thread. but then i didn't see how the teams did for the series . i was researching it on bbr, but haven't finished, as i got distracted watching chi/bos...

 

[B.A.R.]

good stuff

 

[tbone14]

jpicks - i did the research back to 2003 for series results. if you wanted a heads up on which series they were, check out my thread...

 

[GWarner27]

so it'd be reasonable to expect the Rockettes to mail this one in.

hmm. I still think they're much better than the Blazers, but that is nice to hear because now i can lay off HOU as i have every wager so far in the NBA playoffs sitting at 0-0 ha

 

[JPicks]

jpicks - i did the research back to 2003 for series results. if you wanted a heads up on which series they were, check out my thread...

Saw your thread. Appreciate the info. I'll check the stats with the games you listed later this evening and see if it backs up the previous #'s. :shake:




Also seeing that SF pointed out the Portland 1st quarter play and BAR on it I thought I'd look at the previous 10 games to see how the home team did in the 1st quarter.

Home team would be 7-3 ATS winning by 7, 2, 6, 4, 13, 13, and 5 while losing by 9, 2 and 6 points.

Yesterday provided a split of covers for the trend while the home team covered both 1st quarters by 6 and 11 bring the 1st quarter trend to 9-3 ATS.

The entire thread/trend is really just culminating in me really liking the Magic to blow the doors off of the Sixers.

Orlando -10 for a pretty good sized bet. Will add the 1st quarter as well tomorrow.

 

[Ca$He]

Great stuff Jpicks.

 

[SF_capper]

Saw your thread. Appreciate the info. I'll check the stats with the games you listed later this evening and see if it backs up the previous #'s. :shake:




Also seeing that SF pointed out the Portland 1st quarter play and BAR on it I thought I'd look at the previous 10 games to see how the home team did in the 1st quarter.

Home team would be 7-3 ATS winning by 7, 2, 6, 4, 13, 13, and 5 while losing by 9, 2 and 6 points.

Yesterday provided a split of covers for the trend while the home team covered both 1st quarters by 6 and 11 bring the 1st quarter trend to 9-3 ATS.

The entire thread/trend is really just culminating in me really liking the Magic to blow the doors off of the Sixers.

Orlando -10 for a pretty good sized bet. Will add the 1st quarter as well tomorrow.

already on it, couldn't agree more. Think we see them hang a 30+ beatdown. Up 20 in the 4th Q I think we see them try to extend to after sunday's showing

 

[JPicks]

already on it, couldn't agree more. Think we see them hang a 30+ beatdown. Up 20 in the 4th Q I think we see them try to extend to after sunday's showing

Not sure which thread it was in but I saw that you played the Magic bet to win the EC. Think that is a very solid bet. Can't remember/find which thread it was in, but IF they end up playing the Cavs in the EC finals it might be worth waiting to hedge until after the first two games. The way they've played the Cavs I wouldn't be shocked if they won one of the first two games. Doubt you'll lose much money waiting to hedge even if the Cavs go up 2-0. Could be wrong though. Either way I think it's an easy way to make some cash.

 

[cogenman]

good info Jpicks. :shake: