Holy f**k, I'm getting killed today

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Right, Vancouver could come back and win this thing, but sweet merciful motherf**kers, I'm getting my ass handed to me.

Sorry, just had to vent.
 
Ahhhhhhh, here's how my day has gone. I just typed up this really long response to this thing, and then it got deleted.

There's a way, I'm not sure exactly what it is, in Firefox that when I type too fast, it jumps me back a page or two in the browser. And when that happens, everything in the text field gets erased.

F**k.

I'm going to go have some wine and revist this in a minute.

Go 'Nucks.
 
Ugh, got it. It's the delete button then the backslash button in rapid succession. Not like you care, but that's the combination.

Ack.
 
Oh, it's happened before. I've just never been motivated to figure out exactly what it was. I know the shortcut keys, well, most of them. But why in the holy hell would you combine anything with the delete key that's right next to it. Ugh.

Here's what I was saying before I was so rudely interrupted by my wandering digits.

From the Pens end of things, yes, I like them on Tuesday. Unfortunately we now know who the team is that should win that series is, and it's not Pittsburgh. They did some things today, some things they've done in the two games before this one, which suggest they're a long way from knowing how to win a playoff series. This makes me worry for my series bet, and a little about Tuesday because while I think they win, it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.

Minnesota, however, f**k that team. They're dead to me. Three straight wagers on that team and three straight losses. F**k them and the horse they rode in on. I hope they get swept, they and their f**king horrible color scheme can go blow goats at a St. Paul petting zoo for all I care.

The thing for me is, I think there are now three tiers of teams. Teams that we know will win their series, teams that should win their series but are playing teams with enough talent to steal the series, and teams that would need a deal with the devil to get through.

The first tier includes teams like:
Buffalo
Detroit
Anaheim
NY Rangers

The problem with this tier is what do you do with them. Do you bet on them every game, sort of leaning on them to win the series, doubling up if you lose on them. Or do you try to guess the one game they lose from here on out.

The second tier is a little more interesting, in its teams that should win their series, but could get tripped up. These teams are:

NJ
Ottawa
Vancouver

But, again, what do you do. Do you play the dog here knowing that, eventually, you'll make money on it then you can be up for the series? Or do you, again, bet the team that's playing better.

Then there's that SJ series which seems completely up in the air.

I need to take a step back, I think, even if that's only for a night, and try to get my bearings.
 
In retrospect, I don't think Fleury should have played today.

Granted, he wasn't the reason they lost. He actually played all right. But if they would have gotten pushed around like they did today in front of Thibault it could have been easier to write off. But now there's that sense of worry about whether or not Fleury can really get it done. Whereas I would argue that it was the forwards (excluding Gary Roberts) who lost that game.

Pittsburgh needs a good effort on Tuesday, really, a great effort. And that's just to get even. Fact is, they can still win this series, but they are young, they're inexperienced, and whereas I thought before this series started that might help them not be rattled by the pressure, but instead what it's proven out to be is simply that, the inexperience of things you may be able to get away with in the regular season, but not in the playoffs.
 
The first tier includes teams like:
Buffalo
Detroit
Anaheim
NY Rangers

The problem with this tier is what do you do with them. Do you bet on them every game, sort of leaning on them to win the series, doubling up if you lose on them. Or do you try to guess the one game they lose from here on out.

What do you do with them? IMO, You wait til they're off a loss, and back them at reasonable odds (even if that necessitates taking -1.5). With Buffalo on the road for 2 straight games (and no way in hell they go down 1-3 in this series) that may mean chasing a lower ml for not so small bets (I'll ponder that one).

Anaheim? can't do jack shit now they won G3. I've declined to back Minny with their terrible 1-goal reg season stats vs other playoff teams. Best we can hope is Minny pulls out G4, and the Ducks are a *mortal* lock for G5.

The Rangers will be vulnerable G3 and if ATL empty their tank in managing a win (in a game I'll pass on), then it'll be a straight Rangers bet come G4.

Same tactic with Detroit. Pray they lose G3 while leaving it alone, then people assume CAL is actually in that series with games simply going to each strong home team, but we wont be fooled.
 
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Yeah, those are all very good points, Bet. Somebody made the point today that Detroit will drop a game to Calgary because, one, Calgary is so good at home and, two, then they can squeeze another home game out of the series for extra revenue.

A bit cynical, but Calgary is good at home.

You're right, hopefully the game they take is Game Three which will then set up a tiny bit of value in Game Four for Detroit.
 
Thats tough luck Joe, Im sure many thought Minny wouldve won at least one. I agree with BC's Atl/NY logic. I got to think Atlanta wins game 3.
 
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