Historical probabilities going into Game 7

[Santacapper]

Courtesy of www.whowins.com


Schedule and 2007 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 96-66, Cleveland 96-66
Game 1 on Friday, 12 October: Cleveland loses at Boston, 10-runs-3
Game 2 on Saturday, 13 October: Cleveland wins at Boston, 13-runs-6 (11 innings)
Game 3 on Monday, 15 October: Boston loses at Cleveland, 4-runs-2
Game 4 on Tuesday, 16 October: Boston loses at Cleveland, 7-runs-3
Game 5 on Thursday, 18 October: Boston at Cleveland, 8pmEDT
Game 6* on Saturday, 20 October: Cleveland at Boston, TBD
Game 7* on Sunday, 21 October: Cleveland at Boston, TBD
* if needed
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up 3-games-1:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-1 irrespective of site (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 424-38 (.918)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 120-9 (.930)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 55-10 (.846)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 20-5 (.800)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 271-191 (.587)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 76-53 (.589)
Game 5 record, MLB only, all rounds: 34-31 (.523)
Game 5 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 12-13 (.480)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up 3-games-1 @ VVHH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-1 with Games 1-2 on the road and Games 3-4 at home (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 129-20 (.866)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 38-4 (.905)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 21-4 (.840)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 8-2 (.800)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 59-90 (.396)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 20-22 (.476)
Game 5 record, MLB only, all rounds: 12-13 (.480)
Game 5 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 5-5 (.500)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up LWWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team that loses Game 1 and wins Games 2-4 irrespective of site (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 96-10 (.906)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 28-4 (.875)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 17-2 (.895)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 7-2 (.778)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 48-58 (.453)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 13-19 (.406)
Game 5 record, MLB only, all rounds: 6-13 (.316)
Game 5 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 2-7 (.222)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up LWWW @ VVHH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team that loses Game 1 and wins Game 2 on the road and wins Games 3-4 at home (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 49-3 (.942)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 11-1 (.917)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 9-1 (.900)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 3-1 (.750)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 20-32 (.385)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 4-8 (.333)
Game 5 record, MLB only, all rounds: 3-7 (.300)
Game 5 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 1-3 (.250)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

 

[linewatcher]

wow...these are very interesting stats....

so does this mean cleveland will still win the series, but lose game 5?

 

[Santacapper]

you would think so by looking at the #'s Line. Asking to win 3 in a row is alot.

Could be a variety of things, typically the home field is the better team on paper, the season is on the line and more than likely have their #1 going where the team up 3-1 might take a little of their edge off or something.

The #'s are there... just will the Sox be there too, lol

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 20-32 (.385)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 4-8 (.333)
Game 5 record, MLB only, all rounds: 3-7 (.300)
Game 5 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 1-3 (.250)

Boston certainly has the starter going to keep those numbers going

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff santa

 

[The Farm]

Good price tonight on josh

 

[G-Man]

Good price tonight on josh

Yeah Farm. Its to get money on the Sox for all the series money bettors on them already. Beckett is a superior pitcher and could win this game, but just that fact that he has dropped to 120 and now looks attractive to bet, gives the gambler a hard way to go, to NOT bet him. Meaning, most moneyline bettors cant afford to bet against him at this number. Especially if they already have their money on the series with Boston. I think last time I looked, the series money was bet in favor of the RedSOX about 67%???

 

[G-Man]

Boston certainly has the starter going to keep those numbers going

Agree that he is their best chance and can dominate, but this reminds me of how Santana of the twins rocked Cleveland for years and now he cant beat them. 0-3 TY I think. Beckett did well in Boston but Cleveland can beat this kid. He would dominate NY at Boston then lose to them in NY?. Its not like he can beat the same team over and over. Good teams adjust and get their wins. At home is different than in Boston. C.C was rested too long with 3 straight starts off 7 days average rest. 8 days before the Boston start.. Both pitchers are now off the same amount of rest for this one. C.C should be back on track with 6 days.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

What I don't get is why Beckett is considered the superior pitcher to Sabathia. Based on ... their last game??? Geez, Chad Ogea won a few playoff games too. Sabathia and Beckett had the same 2007 season, C.C. less run support.

Sabathia is younger, same number of seasons, WAY more wins, better winning percentage, better ERA when you adjust for Beckett spending more than half of his career in the NL. Shutouts? C.C. has more. Complete games? Not even close, Sabathia, 16-to-4.

To be fair, C.C. does have more career starts. This is because he isn't on the DL with pussy blisters twice a year.

Beckett's good and has a signature playoff moment under his belt. But Sabathia's been the better pitcher for 7 years, and arguably a hair better this year.

 

[Santacapper]

be interesting what happens should Boston take the game tonight, going back to Boston.

This is where I think haivng a 2-2-1-1-1 format helps.

Not sure if I'll play anything tonight as Im torn right now

 

[tipyerbartender1]

As a cold and calculating bettor, in my opinion, I think your isolated one-game value for game five lies firmly with Cleveland, where it's been all post-season because of the brand name of the opponent. (Tribe hasn't been favored yet in 8 playoff games.) Not sure how anyone can argue otherwise. You get the Cleveland ace, at the VERY, VERY LEAST Beckett's equal as a pitcher. You get the home team (great at home all year, 4-0 in post-season), the team that equaled Boston's win total in the regular season and the team that is clearly playing better all-around ball right now. And you get them as a dog.

As an Indians fan, hell yes I'll be a little nervous if this goes back to Boston. Who wouldn't? (For the record, I'll also be mighty nervous if Borowski is protecting a 1-run lead.)

Almost time to start drinking for this thing. Go Tribe.

 

[Santacapper]

what Im personally tossing about is playing the Sox for the Series at +400 and change depending on the shop and the Indians for the game at +110 give or take....

IMO series could very well be decided tonight (for obvious reasons) but it also could present nice value should Boston win tonight too in game 6 / 7

 

[tipyerbartender1]

I don't know, Santa, I don't like the hedge where you can't win both and you could lose both. Boston backers taking a stand here would be better served to bet 'em tonight, roll it over if they win, roll it over 2X if they win again in game six ... you get the picture.

Or just back the hefty lefty tonight.

 

[Satyr]

Excellent thread and discussion going on here boys. I will share my thoughts in my thread shortly. Good luck to everyone. :shake: :cheers:

 

[Santacapper]

I don't know, Santa, I don't like the hedge where you can't win both and you could lose both. Boston backers taking a stand here would be better served to bet 'em tonight, roll it over if they win, roll it over 2X if they win again in game six ... you get the picture.

Or just back the hefty lefty tonight.

very true, never really thought about it like that as Im not particularly a hedging guy unless its a future I have bought prior to a deciding game.

I dunno, maybe just watch the game:down2::36_11_6:

 

[Santacapper]

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 463-115 (.801)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 126-34 (.788)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 57-26 (.687)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 18-8 (.692)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 314-264 (.543)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 89-71 (.556)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 36-47 (.434)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 14-12 (.538)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up 3-games-2 @ VVHHH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with Games 1-2 on the road and Games 3-5 at home (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 32-20 (.615)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 10-4 (.714)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 25-16 (.610)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 9-4 (.692)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 21-31 (.404)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 9-5 (.643)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 15-26 (.366)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 8-5 (.615)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up LWWWL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team that loses Game 1, wins Games 2-4, and loses Game 5 irrespective of site (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 48-10 (.828)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 15-4 (.789)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 11-2 (.846)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 5-2 (.714)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 36-22 (.621)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 12-7 (.632)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 11-2 (.846)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 5-2 (.714)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up LWWWL @ VVHHH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team that loses Game 1 and wins Game 2 on the road, wins Games 3-4 at home, and loses Game 5 at home (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 7-1 (.875)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 2-1 (.667)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 6-1 (.857)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 2-1 (.667)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 7-1 (.875)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 2-1 (.667)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 6-1 (.857)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 2-1 (.667)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

 

[linewatcher]

cleveland is the play for game 6, my friend. thank you for digging this out...i also believe if cleveland loses game 6, they will lose game 7. i'm banking that cleveland wins this in 6...no more chasing if this loses...:tiphat:

 

[Joe Public]

I don't have the stats, but I believe generally if you're up 3-2 and lose Game Six you also drop Game Seven.

Not shocking as the momentum swing is so huge and how tough it is to rebound off a closeout loss. Also, usually, I believe, that situation puts the team that just lost Game Six on the road, so, again, a pretty significant disadvantage.

 

[Santacapper]

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 3-games-all @ VVHHHV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 3-games-all with Games 1-2 on the road, Games 3-5 at home, and Game 6 on the road (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 Game 7 record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 21-30 (.412)
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 5-7 (.417)
Game 7 record, MLB only, all rounds: 20-24 (.455)
Game 7 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 5-7 (.417)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied LWWWLL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team that loses Game 1, wins Games 2-4, and loses Games 5-6 irrespective of site (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 Game 7 record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 12-10 (.545)
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 3-4 (.429)
Game 7 record, MLB only, all rounds: 0-2 (.000)
Game 7 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 0-2 (.000)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up LWWWLL @ VVHHHV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team that loses Game 1 and wins Game 2 on the road, wins Games 3-4 at home, loses Game 5 at home, and loses Game 6 on the road (Cleveland) has the following best-of-7 Game 7 record through the 2007 NBA Finals:
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 0-1 (.000)
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 0-1 (.000)
Game 7 record, MLB only, all rounds: 0-1 (.000)
Game 7 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 0-1 (.000)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1019 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2007 NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
SERIES NOTES: