NFL Upside Justifies Investment in ‚First QB Drafted‘ Prop
The NFL draft begins on April 26, 2018. This year’s edition could see more quarterbacks being taken early than last year’s. With the Cleveland Browns drafting first, they’ll likely determine which one gets drafted first.
Despite having worse statistics, USC’s Sam Darnold displays the upside that justifies an investment in him to be drafted first. Because of this upside, Darnold is an excellent underdog pick over UCLA’s Josh Rosen, who is favored because he is currently more NFL-ready.
Re-watching the USC-UCLA game yields insight into the differences between both quarterbacks. Rosen is arguably a better decision-maker. He is more comfortable staying inside the pocket and going through his progressions. Darnold is more dangerous with his feet, but also more likely to make mistakes. His mechanics aren’t as smooth and he’s more likely to bail out of a clean pocket. Rosen makes poor decisions as well, but Darnold makes more, partly because he gives himself more opportunity to do so by being so willing to leave the pocket. In terms of determining who is NFL-ready, the key statistical difference is that Rosen committed 13 turnovers, Sam Darnold committed 23. The difference in turnover vulnerability attests to Rosen’s superior mechanics and decision-making ability.
Besides turnovers, the two quarterbacks are similarly-sized and have similar statistics, keeping in mind that Rosen wasn’t able to achieve so many passing yards in 2017 due to injury. There are, however, four extra factors that speak for an underdog investment in Darnold.
For starters, Rosen has explicitly said that he does not want to play in Cleveland. But Darnold is willing.
For all of Rosen’s reliability as a passer, he has been more mistake-prone on the road. In 2017, he threw 8 picks on the road, compared to 2 at home. Half of an NFL team's games are on the road. Will Rosen be able to avoid turning the ball over too frequently in those eight games?
Another factor is experience. Teams aren’t looking to draft a player based on how he will perform in one season. They are looking for a long-term solution, one that the Browns are desperate for at quarterback because it is hard to win (the Browns went 0-16 in 2017) when your quarterback only completes 53% of his passes and turns the ball over 28 times. So Rosen is more polished and more likely to succeed than Darnold in 2018. But he has also had more opportunities to become polished because he has thrown 324 more collegiate passes than Darnold. Darnold is really young. He only played two seasons at USC.
The final factor is the „it“ factor. Teams are not simply looking for solid mechanics and decision-making because those things can be improved. Mechanics and decision-making aren’t inherent qualities like height or speed. Green Bay’s superstar Aaron Rodgers is a classic example of a quarterback who altered his mechanics, now holding his ball much lower in order to generate a smoother arm motion. Another legend Peyton Manning is famous for improving his decision-making in order to throw vastly fewer interceptions. While the Browns can assume that they can polish the young Darnold, they will already have a playmaker who, for instance against UCLA, displayed his ridiculous ability to make throws into tight windows while escaping the pocket. When he does leave the pocket, he is more likely to create a larger gain. This mobility is an important asset to a Cleveland quarterback because the Browns’ pass protection ranked in the bottom-ten last season. It also adds more excitement to a team which sorely lacks playmakers.
Rosen is more NFL-ready, sure, but Darnold possesses more upside. He’s a better long-term investment for the Browns (or any other team) and a very reasonable underdog investment for bettors.
NFL Pick: Sam Darnold +125
The NFL draft begins on April 26, 2018. This year’s edition could see more quarterbacks being taken early than last year’s. With the Cleveland Browns drafting first, they’ll likely determine which one gets drafted first.
Despite having worse statistics, USC’s Sam Darnold displays the upside that justifies an investment in him to be drafted first. Because of this upside, Darnold is an excellent underdog pick over UCLA’s Josh Rosen, who is favored because he is currently more NFL-ready.
Re-watching the USC-UCLA game yields insight into the differences between both quarterbacks. Rosen is arguably a better decision-maker. He is more comfortable staying inside the pocket and going through his progressions. Darnold is more dangerous with his feet, but also more likely to make mistakes. His mechanics aren’t as smooth and he’s more likely to bail out of a clean pocket. Rosen makes poor decisions as well, but Darnold makes more, partly because he gives himself more opportunity to do so by being so willing to leave the pocket. In terms of determining who is NFL-ready, the key statistical difference is that Rosen committed 13 turnovers, Sam Darnold committed 23. The difference in turnover vulnerability attests to Rosen’s superior mechanics and decision-making ability.
Besides turnovers, the two quarterbacks are similarly-sized and have similar statistics, keeping in mind that Rosen wasn’t able to achieve so many passing yards in 2017 due to injury. There are, however, four extra factors that speak for an underdog investment in Darnold.
For starters, Rosen has explicitly said that he does not want to play in Cleveland. But Darnold is willing.
For all of Rosen’s reliability as a passer, he has been more mistake-prone on the road. In 2017, he threw 8 picks on the road, compared to 2 at home. Half of an NFL team's games are on the road. Will Rosen be able to avoid turning the ball over too frequently in those eight games?
Another factor is experience. Teams aren’t looking to draft a player based on how he will perform in one season. They are looking for a long-term solution, one that the Browns are desperate for at quarterback because it is hard to win (the Browns went 0-16 in 2017) when your quarterback only completes 53% of his passes and turns the ball over 28 times. So Rosen is more polished and more likely to succeed than Darnold in 2018. But he has also had more opportunities to become polished because he has thrown 324 more collegiate passes than Darnold. Darnold is really young. He only played two seasons at USC.
The final factor is the „it“ factor. Teams are not simply looking for solid mechanics and decision-making because those things can be improved. Mechanics and decision-making aren’t inherent qualities like height or speed. Green Bay’s superstar Aaron Rodgers is a classic example of a quarterback who altered his mechanics, now holding his ball much lower in order to generate a smoother arm motion. Another legend Peyton Manning is famous for improving his decision-making in order to throw vastly fewer interceptions. While the Browns can assume that they can polish the young Darnold, they will already have a playmaker who, for instance against UCLA, displayed his ridiculous ability to make throws into tight windows while escaping the pocket. When he does leave the pocket, he is more likely to create a larger gain. This mobility is an important asset to a Cleveland quarterback because the Browns’ pass protection ranked in the bottom-ten last season. It also adds more excitement to a team which sorely lacks playmakers.
Rosen is more NFL-ready, sure, but Darnold possesses more upside. He’s a better long-term investment for the Browns (or any other team) and a very reasonable underdog investment for bettors.
NFL Pick: Sam Darnold +125
Last edited:
