Help me decide on my first pick

[Tide High]

14 team keeper (1) league
QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
TE
WR/TE
WR/RB

Standard scoring all around with bonuses for big passing days - 2points at 300-399. 4 more at 400+


I have the 5th pick and keep gronk (losing my 3rd rounder). I like it but my first two picks have to be perfect. Right now I'm thinking WR then RB but the argument can be made for almost any combo of QB RB WR.

Best available at my pick after keepers:

Luck Arod
Murray McCoy Hill Ingram Forsett
Dez Julio Nelson Thomas Calvin

I feel like I have to take 1 RB in the first or 2nd bc if I don't my #1 rb is going to be someone like Jennings/Blount/ivory or worse in the late 4th.

My initial lean is to take Dez then gore or miller. If I take Murray my WR in the 2nd will be someone like Jeffrey Hopkins Hilton. Anyone disagree? If I take luck I miss on any chance at a good WR and my #1 will be someone like Vincent Jackson.

So it's really...

Luck
Miller
Vincent Jackson

Vs

Romo/Ryan/etc
Miller
Dez

Vs

Romo/Ryan/etc
Murray
Hilton

Vs
Tannehill/Eli late
Blount
Dez
Cobb
(This is the WR WR strat that I hate but what if Cobb is there? It will be close)

 

[Tide High]

Usually in this league I start 2 RB and 4 WR

 

[orangemonk]

I would look hard at luck or rodgers due to the passing yards bonus, but I don't play in formats like yours so it's harder for me to say.

 

[twinkie13]

I like RBs....won many leagues sticking to the RB formula

 

[Tide High]

I love luck this year. He could throw for 400 half of his games. That's a lot of extra points. Especially since there are no rushing or receiving bonuses like this. The extra flex makes it tough to go qb though.

Thx for the advice Twinkie. The available rbs are so full of questions though. Foster was going to be my pick until his injury. picks 1-4 will be ap bell lacy lynch. Huge drop off at my pick

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'd first look to trade with someone who wants to move up to get one of the QBs.

I assume Charles is being kept. Your pick comes down to how you tier your RBs. If you have Murray and/or McCoy in Tier 1, then either would be the pick here in a non-ppr format. I'd prefer Murray over McCoy. But if you have Ingram and/or Miller in the same tier as Murray and McCoy, then you probably want to go WR in rd 1 and hope Ingram or Miller are there in round 2. In this deep of a league, I doubt a Tier 1 WR would be available in round 2.

I think Gronk, Dez, and Ingram would be a good start in a 14 team league. All three are double digit TD threats.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I love luck this year. He could throw for 400 half of his games. That's a lot of extra points. Especially since there are no rushing or receiving bonuses like this. The extra flex makes it tough to go qb though.

Thx for the advice Twinkie. The available rbs are so full of questions though. Foster was going to be my pick until his injury. picks 1-4 will be ap bell lacy lynch. Huge drop off at my pick

I agree. With the deeper roster, it's tough to start this draft TE-QB.

 

[Tide High]

Thanks gorg. I've been trying to trade back since we pulled the order out of a hat. I'm basically reaching for any player I take at my pick. I've set some guys up though bc I've been asking for too much and at our live draft I hope I can just do a straight swap for a later pick. We will see.

I have Murray up next but a big drop from lynch. I am not drafting McCoy at all. Do not like him. Charles kept, yes.

If I stay at this pick I'll prob go WR then hope for miller like u say. I'm glad we see it similar bc that's what this thread is about... Throw it on the wall and see what yall say.

 

[Carolina Guy]

You can still find a solid qb in the 6th or 7th round. Hell, you'll find one in the 10th or 11th. Stack your team with quality WR's and RB's and wait on the QB.

 

[Tide High]

I think you are right cg. Thx

 

[eggman]

QB is way too deep this year to go QB in Rd 1 imo. I would go RB first round though likely because WR is deeper and more likely for breakout guys as well.