Help for a friend...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
As a favor, I want to help him, but I am buried with baseball work and have 0 time to research this properly right now.

I guess the easiest way to "poke holes" would be making sure he doesn't hit 25 percent profit. Not sure how hard that is...



'Poke holes into this theory. ..start with $ 160...bet 10 on money line each nfl game...next week take whats in account divide by games and bet that on each game

Doing the math 25% profit each week from week 1 puts you at $5684 after week 17'




 
To be profitable at 25% wouldn't dog value have to be avg over +300? That's +9 kinda dogs each game? Maybe god is lookin at it wrong
 
Lookin at this weeks lines there are only 3 games wit a +300 or higher ML dog. Expected results would have to be higher than 25%
 
The assumption is he is winning at least half of those wagers. Tall order IMO
 
Week 1
4 dog winners = roughly with closing money lines (may vary by place) would have given him back $40 + $69 in winnings = $109

Week 2 would be $6.81 bet per 16 games ...
4 dog winners = $6.81*4= $27.24 + $45.63 in winnings =$72.87

Week 3 would be $4.55 bet per 16 games ...

I'm guessing this is not the thought process ??? But if it is, it doesn't appear profitable thus far this year ...
 
STEED said:
Yea winning 50% of dog games over course of season isn't a gimme.
Click to expand...

Really would only need 43%. dogs would have to avg +130 winning bets. 7 ML dogs of 16 to be profitable. Can happen, but a whole season is along time
 
tru said:
Really would only need 43%. dogs would have to avg +130 winning bets. 7 ML dogs of 16 to be profitable. Can happen, but a whole season is along time
Click to expand...

I think this shows there are too many assumptions(variables) to even conclude a 25% profit theory ... you could win 6 games a week with +220 (just throwing up a number, no clue on actual odds needed) ... or 5 games a week with +300 .... blah blah blah
 
NYGiants25 said:
I think this shows there are too many assumptions(variables) to even conclude a 25% profit theory ... you could win 6 games a week with +220 (just throwing up a number, no clue on actual odds needed) ... or 5 games a week with +300 .... blah blah blah
Click to expand...

Agreed, strange shit can happen.
 
You could apply this to the MLB season and exclude certain teams and turn a huge profit.
 
thanks for the insight fellas... i'll ask him to elaborate if he can; guy graduated HS with me and is in the Air Force in Vegas and is no idiot but it does seem like he left out some important factors.
 
think he just talking about picking winners and winning 25 percent over the course of each week. sorry to bother you all. will post my shit tonight or tomorrow for the week and GL to all. Thanks at least for the feedback; hopefully it was helpful to at least one person even if that wasn't the intent haha...

:shake:
 
NYGiants25 said:
I believe this to be data on the last 23 years through 2010 season ...
2,010 ML dog winners out of 6,059 games = 33% historical win rate

http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/nfl-...-a-historical-analysis-by-spread-ranges-2496/
Click to expand...

Yeah this basically can't be profitable then. 33% is rite between 5-6/16. 5 wins to make profits u need avg winning ML dog price +325, can't see this working out well. An like Kyle posted from 2012 I think 1 dog won outright that week. At that winning percentage rexys friend is askin each week for big dogs to win outright, a lot of em. Won't happen
 
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