Heisman

U

uterod

Active Member
Any one wagering on the Heisman? Current odds at 5dimes as of this am:

Bradford : -390
Tebow: +580
McCoy : +720

Colt came in first in the Rocky Mountain Poll (about 10 voters out of the 900 Heisman voters). They have picked the correct winner 18 out of the last 21 years. Bradford had 7 first place votes last week to Colts 2. I don't know what Colt did over the weekend, but now its Colt with 5 first place votes to Bradford's 3, but only leads by a single point overall. SI picked Colt (not sure if their vote counts or not). ESPN's vote (or the title sponsor - Nissan's vote) goes to Colt via internet poll. And Musburger is giving his vote away in an internet poll, with Colt in the lead. Granted that's only about 12-13 votes out of 900, but there's gotta be some value at +720, for Colt McCoy.

Thoughts?
 
Wow, I'd take McCoy. It'll be a close race in any case.

For what it's worth, the Rocky Mountain News has done a survey of 10 Heisman Voters all year long. McCoy was the winner in the last poll over Bradford (after the Big XII Championship Game) by one point 43-42 with Tebow a distant 3rd. Have to figure in some regional bias though.

As for first place votes in the poll, McCoy went from 2 to 5, Bradford dropped from 7 to 3, and Tebow got 2.

I'd bet the value on this one if you're going to bet it at all. A little on Tebow and McCoy.
 
LOL, RJ, he's got that info in his first post...

I know you want Colt to win, but I don't think there's value in that number...it doesn't matter how close it is, he's not going to win.

Here's the latest from stiffarmtrophy:

Our Projection


The tally is on the left is a vote count from actual voters. The projection takes the regional breakdown and extrapolates a final total. Please note that we are a LONG way from having enough firm ballots to make a final projection.
Last updated: 12/9/2008, 5:09 a.m. Pacific. 63 ballots, 144 votes. <TABLE class=funky cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 border=0><TBODY><TR align=right><TD class=total align=left>name</TD><TD class=total>first</TD><TD class=total>second</TD><TD class=total>third</TD><TD class=total>ballots</TD><TD class=total>points</TD><TD class=proj>Projected</TD><TD class=proj>Projected %</TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=total align=left>S Bradford</TD><TD class=total>21</TD><TD class=total>18</TD><TD class=total>5</TD><TD class=total>44</TD><TD class=total>104</TD><TD class=proj>1665</TD><TD class=proj>60.0%</TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=total align=left>T Tebow</TD><TD class=total>27</TD><TD class=total>10</TD><TD class=total>12</TD><TD class=total>49</TD><TD class=total>113</TD><TD class=proj>1589</TD><TD class=proj>57.3%</TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=total align=left>C McCoy</TD><TD class=total>14</TD><TD class=total>14</TD><TD class=total>13</TD><TD class=total>41</TD><TD class=total>83</TD><TD class=proj>1353</TD><TD class=proj>48.8%</TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=total align=left>G Harrell</TD><TD class=total>0</TD><TD class=total>2</TD><TD class=total>3</TD><TD class=total>5</TD><TD class=total>7</TD><TD class=proj>90</TD><TD class=proj>3.2%</TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=total align=left>M Crabtree</TD><TD class=total>0</TD><TD class=total>0</TD><TD class=total>1</TD><TD class=total>1</TD><TD class=total>1</TD><TD class=proj>27</TD><TD class=proj>1.0%</TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=total align=left>P Harvin</TD><TD class=total>0</TD><TD class=total>0</TD><TD class=total>2</TD><TD class=total>2</TD><TD class=total>2</TD><TD class=proj>14</TD><TD class=proj>0.5%</TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=total align=left>B Spikes</TD><TD class=total>0</TD><TD class=total>0</TD><TD class=total>1</TD><TD class=total>1</TD><TD class=total>1</TD><TD class=proj>7</TD><TD class=proj>0.3%</TD></TR><TR align=right><TD class=total align=left>J Ringer</TD><TD class=total>0</TD><TD class=total>0</TD><TD class=total>1</TD><TD class=total>1</TD><TD class=total>1</TD><TD class=proj>1</TD><TD class=proj>0.0%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Colt has no value. Value argument can be made for Tebow...

But betting whatever amount just because he was even money last week and is a 7-1 dog this week doesn't make it value cause it's a loser.

Colt McCoy is not winning the award.
 
Colt may not win the award, but I disagree with your value assessment.

If you laid $100 on Colt and Tebow and neither wins, you lose $200 but win $480 and $620 depending on if either wins the trophy.

Meanwhile, if you laid $390 on Bradford, you only win $100 but risk losing $390.

If you laid $390 on Bradford and bet $100 on Tebow, you break even if Bradford wins and only win $190 if Tebow wins. If Colt wins, you lose $490.

Seems to me that the smart bet is to either bet $100 on Tebow only or $100 on Colt and Tebow.
 
RJ, I'm now beating my head against the office wall.

Read my post in this thread..the value on Bradford has SAILED...i would not bet him at that price. But the even money before the weekend games was extreme value.

with both OU and FLA being double digit faves prior to those games, you knew they would have big games. that's why the McCOy even money price wasn't even good value then...

laying 100 to lose 100 isn't value...it's like taking 100 dollars and giving it to this guy who walks past my window to the city bus every day at 12:15....I'll be $100 poorer...that sucks...that's not good value IMO..

I'm not a moneyline dog player like Garf or Matador, but this seems pretty basic..

To give away a hundred bucks knowing you won't get anything back seems sorta silly.

Now if you want to talk about Tebow, there might be some value there...

But the numbers Bradford has compared to the numbers differential from Tebow 07 to 08, make this look pretty clear and the odds say the same thing.

Sam Bradford is winning the Heisman.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
RJ, I'm now beating my head against the office wall.

Read my post in this thread..the value on Bradford has SAILED...i would not bet him at that price. But the even money before the weekend games was extreme value.

with both OU and FLA being double digit faves prior to those games, you knew they would have big games. that's why the McCOy even money price wasn't even good value then...

laying 100 to lose 100 isn't value...it's like taking 100 dollars and giving it to this guy who walks past my window to the city bus every day at 12:15....I'll be $100 poorer...that sucks...that's not good value IMO..

I'm not a moneyline dog player like Garf or Matador, but this seems pretty basic..

To give away a hundred bucks knowing you won't get anything back seems sorta silly.

Now if you want to talk about Tebow, there might be some value there...

But the numbers Bradford has compared to the numbers differential from Tebow 07 to 08, make this look pretty clear and the odds say the same thing.

Sam Bradford is winning the Heisman.
Click to expand...

I know you're not saying to bet Bradford. I know there is no value there. I'm just running through all the options. And I think you and I agree on one option: Bet Tebow.

What I am saying is why not bet Tebow and Colt to cover bases?

I think your evaluation and my evaluation of the odds of each winning is completely different and you're not giving Colt any chance while I may be giving him too much of a chance.

I think that the race will be very close and if I'm right, why not lay another $100 on the chance of getting 7-1 on your money.

You obviously disagree.

I actually agree more with BAR's assessment and not to bet the trophy, but I'm debating more on a gambling philosophy/strategy/math argument here than on the actual players and whether they should win.

Are you banging your head against the office wall because someone tried to pay their policy in chickens? Or on layaway?
 
I will give you that no doubt.

I guess my point is with McCoy your just seeing a juicy number and hoping it bites.
 
B.A.R. said:
I will give you that no doubt.

I guess my point is with McCoy your just seeing a juicy number and hoping it bites.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

I'm not a ML dog player, but I think the odds of Colt winning are substantially less than 7-1 and I'm getting 7-1 on my money if I win. So why not place that bet?
 
Thats not my style RJ. For the most part. Others on these websites do very well with stuff like that. Taskes a lot of time, devotion and the ability to lose many value bets in a row and deal with it. Not my cup of tea.
 
B.A.R. said:
Thats not my style RJ. For the most part. Others on these websites do very well with stuff like that. Taskes a lot of time, devotion and the ability to lose many value bets in a row and deal with it. Not my cup of tea.
Click to expand...

Not my style either, and that's why I'm not betting it.

But I'm making the argument and working through this discussion for educational purposes.

Like to see Matador, Horses, or Red get in here and start making some arguments.

One thing that I can see is that you don't want to get into this bet because there are too many variables and not enough future opportunities to make back your losses or to capitalize when your value bet hits.
 
I think your completely missing the point though RJ...what are those odds telling us?

Colt was EVEN, Bradford was +115, Tebow was +300

Four days and one game later for Bradford and Tebow:

Bradford -390, Tebow +520, Colt +720


This tells us Bradford is winning the award.

McCoy iddn't play Saturday, Bradford did. Bradford has better numbers. Bradford won the championshiop in the same league. Bradford is playing for a National championship. Bradford has played in the 8pm slot three of the last four weeks and his team has scored over 60 in each and he's torn it up in each. Every voter has seen that. McCoy was handing off vs A&M on Thanksgiving night when nobody cared or watched. McCoy was watching Step Brothers on DVD while Bradford was winning a Conference Championship graduating to a National Championship Opportunity.

McCoy is not beating Bradford. The pity vote aspect is fun to talk about but it won't have any substance outside the state of Texas. Mark Rea from buckeyesports isn't going to care about Texas pity vote.


That leaves Bradford vs Tebow. Both teams did well in primetime in huge spots. both are playing for a national championship.

Three things favor Bradford though:

1. He has much, much better numbers. Like another stratosphere better
2. Tebow's numbers are nowhere near last years
3. Tebow won the award last year


They just don't like giving away the award back to back. Leinart's year proves that. others have too, much to Archie's delight.
 
OK, Bradford is most likely going to win it. I'll take your premise.

You don't think there is better than a 7-1 possibility that McCoy wins?

If we were playing poker and you held "McCoy" knowing you had a 30% chance to win but were getting 7-1 wouldn't you push in?
 
yea, but once agian you are missing the point....I might get odds to call 30% on a flush draw...but the problem is the board is paired...even if I hit my flush it might not be any good.

I have to assume the other dude already has a full house...
 
JumpOnBoard said:
yea, but once agian you are missing the point....I might get odds to call 30% on a flush draw...but the problem is the board is paired...even if I hit my flush it might not be any good.

I have to assume the other dude already has a full house...
Click to expand...

Again, I think you and I are in agreement largely but are viewing the odds differently.
 
I don't see the argument here. The value play here is McCoy if the polling data is to be believed.
 
Doosh said:
I don't see the argument here. The value play here is McCoy if the polling data is to be believed.
Click to expand...
I'm also assuming your just using the above one referenced?

Here's another:

​
I just got the final votes in for my last Heisman poll of the season. It projects Sam Bradford of Oklahoma to be the winner of the 2008 Heisman Trophy.
It’s going to be a close race and I wouldn’t be shocked if Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow swapped spots.
The Final Heismanpundit.com/Orlando Sentinel Heisman Poll, December 9, 2008 (first place votes in parentheses):

Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma–44 (6)
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida–38 (3)
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas–36 (1)
Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech–22
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech–5
Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa–4
LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh–1
About the poll
The HeismanPundit.com/Orlando Sentinel Heisman Poll is made up of 10 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for five players each week. Tabulations are made on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis, with five points awarded for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on. Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Olin Buchanan of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy of Sports Illustrated, B.J. Schecter of Sports Illustrated, Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated and Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News.​
 
Look, Jump:

You've got 150 possible points on that poll divided by 7 players.

Bradford holds 44/150, or roughly 1:3.5 and is laying 1:4
Tebow holds 38/150, or roughly 1:4 and is getting 4:1
Colt holds 36/150, or roughly 1:5 but is getting 7:1

I'm not sure how many voters are in the full Heisman balloting, but it would seem to me that all 3 are very close and close enough to still bet $100 if you're going to get 7:1 on your money for a 5:1 dog.

Tell me how I'm wrong and don't say that Colt isn't going to win because the nature of playing ML Dogs (by my understanding) is not to play sure winners but upset dogs getting better payouts than the true odds.
 
I don't much care for the Heisman Trophy as it's become an ESPN publicity stunt, but this is an interesting thread...

Before I bet sports, I bet a lot of horses; now I just bet the big races and Del Mar and I usually just tail my buddies that follow year around. Regardless, one of the reasons I moved to sports betting is exactly what BAR said...just not my cup of tea to absorb multiple losses before hitting a nice paying winner, which is how things go in horse racing.

Heisman race is like a horse race; when I 'capped a horse race, the 1st thing I always looked at and asked is 'Is the favorite beatable'; rarely if ever bet favorites in horse racing and always looked for races where they were vulnerable, and then dug into the value medium shots. Here...unless there is some backlash against OU for (apparently) screwing Texas out of the B12 title game, I don't see how Bradford loses. His team scored 60+ the last 5 games, all nationally televised I believe, and his team is playing for the MNC. It'd be almost a shock if he doesn't win and if this was a horse race I would pass. That being said, scenario might be that B12 writers split their votes while SE voters all vote for Tebow nudging him ahead of the B12 candidates. Therefore, if I had to take a shot, it'd be the Gator QB.
 
horses said:
I don't much care for the Heisman Trophy as it's become an ESPN publicity stunt, but this is an interesting thread...

Before I bet sports, I bet a lot of horses; now I just bet the big races and Del Mar and I usually just tail my buddies that follow year around. Regardless, one of the reasons I moved to sports betting is exactly what BAR said...just not my cup of tea to absorb multiple losses before hitting a nice paying winner, which is how things go in horse racing.

Heisman race is like a horse race; when I 'capped a horse race, the 1st thing I always looked at and asked is 'Is the favorite beatable'; rarely if ever bet favorites in horse racing and always looked for races where they were vulnerable, and then dug into the value medium shots. Here...unless there is some backlash against OU for (apparently) screwing Texas out of the B12 title game, I don't see how Bradford loses. His team scored 60+ the last 5 games, all nationally televised I believe, and his team is playing for the MNC. It'd be almost a shock if he doesn't win and if this was a horse race I would pass. That being said, scenario might be that B12 writers split their votes while SE voters all vote for Tebow nudging him ahead of the B12 candidates. Therefore, if I had to take a shot, it'd be the Gator QB.
Click to expand...

Good insight here, Horses. And you're right. This is more like a horse race than a ML Dog situation.

I'm with you, I gave up betting favorites in horses a long time ago and consistently look for those horses getting 8-1 to 16-1 odds and have a decent chance to win.

Do you play ML Dogs? If so, what is your approach there?
 
Thanks RJ; my approach is to flat bet bet ats sides or totals with no halftime bets or hedging. Over the years, have found this is my most profitable approach, so yeah, I'm boring in that regard, but I can't do this forever so I have to maximize profits as long as I'm doing this. This IS a definite Matador, Garfather or RedBearde question.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
I think your completely missing the point though RJ...what are those odds telling us?

Colt was EVEN, Bradford was +115, Tebow was +300

Four days and one game later for Bradford and Tebow:

Bradford -390, Tebow +520, Colt +720


This tells us Bradford is winning the award.

McCoy iddn't play Saturday, Bradford did. Bradford has better numbers. Bradford won the championshiop in the same league. Bradford is playing for a National championship. Bradford has played in the 8pm slot three of the last four weeks and his team has scored over 60 in each and he's torn it up in each. Every voter has seen that. McCoy was handing off vs A&M on Thanksgiving night when nobody cared or watched. McCoy was watching Step Brothers on DVD while Bradford was winning a Conference Championship graduating to a National Championship Opportunity.

McCoy is not beating Bradford. The pity vote aspect is fun to talk about but it won't have any substance outside the state of Texas. Mark Rea from buckeyesports isn't going to care about Texas pity vote.


That leaves Bradford vs Tebow. Both teams did well in primetime in huge spots. both are playing for a national championship.

Three things favor Bradford though:

1. He has much, much better numbers. Like another stratosphere better
2. Tebow's numbers are nowhere near last years
3. Tebow won the award last year


They just don't like giving away the award back to back. Leinart's year proves that. others have too, much to Archie's delight.
Click to expand...

Wrong. He was shooting shit.

Colt McCoy Is Deadly Accurate, Literally

from The Sporting Blog
104108.jpg
Colt McCoy likes to shoot varmints. You may think I'm being elitist and coyly ironic in using the word "varmints," as in, "Ha ha, oh, the humor of rural ways and how it amuses my Mac-using, latte-sipping multi-degreed fat ass." I don't mean this at all. Colt likes to shoot varmints to get his anger out, and he said so himself on ESPN Radio with Tirico and Van Pelt today. Transcribed from the original audio:
Mike Tirico: What did you do Saturday night? Did you watch Oklahoma? Colt McCoy: No. .. I didn't see the point in watching the game ... I sat home with my parents -- you really want to know what I did Saturday night?
Scott Van Pelt: Yes, because I don't believe you didn't watch the game.
McCoy: Alright, well, I called up some buddies and we went spotlightin'. We went huntin', basically.
Van Pelt: Wait, you're talking to two city guys here. What the heck is spotlighting?
McCoy: It's basically where you get a spotlight, and you just kind of look for varmints and --
Van Pelt: Varmints? Possums? Armadillos?
McCoy: Yeah, Armadillos, anything really. You just have to go out there and shoot stuff to get all this anger out.
​
McCoy said this was "all good clean fun." If you're teetering about who to put on your Heisman ballot, please consider that Colt McCoy not only has a proactive approach towards anger management and superb aim, but he also shares a large amount of common vocabulary with Yosemite Sam. That, more than anything else, screams Heisman to me.
 
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=580>Football Futures</TD><TD width=20>EXIT</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=580>2008 Heisman Trophy - Odds to win</TD><TD width=20></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>12/13/2008 8:30 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Odds to win 2008 Heisman Trophy Award must have a ultimate winner. If one of more share Heisman. Prices are split by number of winning players.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>6001</TD><TD width=300>Colt McCoy </TD><TD width=65> +500 </TD><TD width=200> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>6002</TD><TD width=300>Graham Harrell </TD><TD width=65> </TD><TD width=200> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>6003</TD><TD width=300>Sam Bradford </TD><TD width=65> -300 </TD><TD width=200> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>6004</TD><TD width=300>Tim Tebow </TD><TD width=65> +250 </TD><TD width=200> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>6005</TD><TD width=300>Daryll Clark </TD><TD width=65> </TD><TD width=200> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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