Hedging Dodgers 35/1 Future

[orangemonk]

Would like to get the thoughts of the forum on this one. One unit on Dodgers to win it all at 35/1. Braves are +130 series price for the NLDS. What should I do?

 

[Schrute]

Braves fan here. They won't beat Kershaw game 1 or at all in series. I'd hedge after game 1 if you must but I'm 75% sure Dodgers win in 5 or 6

 

[orangemonk]

Yeah I'd probably wait until after game 1 if I did it. Baseball hedging with starting pitching is extremely interesting to me. When you're getting the most out of your hedge or if it's even worth it.

 

[KowboyKarl]

Yeah, I'd wait til after Game 1 for what should be much better odds.

 

[orangemonk]

Best of 5 series so Kershaw would be starting 2 games if it went to 5. +130 isn't enough for that

 

[KJ]

Eh aces like kershaw lose game 1 all the time

 

[Schrute]

Lol well clearly I wouldn't listen to me


Why did I think the NLDS and ALDS went to 7 games? I'm a tard I guess

 

[big_units]

keep in mind medlen is pitching at home, and has only allowed 4 runs in his last 43 inn...and if the game is tied in the late innings, smogers won't win

 

[orangemonk]

Right, Kershaw isn't a lock by any means but he's the best pitcher in baseball so I'm not sure the value would be to make the series play before his first start.

 

[Schrute]

I can't imagine a scenario where the Dodgers aren't up either 1-0 or 2-1

 

[KJ]

Right, Kershaw isn't a lock by any means but he's the best pitcher in baseball so I'm not sure the value would be to make the series play before his first start.

this is where i lose faith in the "best" argument...at this point in the season with so many innings pitched, I just don't put much stock in the starter being as important...could be, but I could easily see the braves winning game 1 and game 2, they are beasts at home and last at bats in close games matter. a ton.

i'm perfectly ok hedging now

 

[big_units]

honestly, i really don't understand how a team that is 56-25 at home, with home field advantage, is a series underdog to a team that hasn't been playing good baseball over the last month.

 

[orangemonk]

All interesting points that I will consider leading up to the game. Love these kind of discussions and appreciate everyone's input. Will be monitoring if anyone else has thoughts

 

[big_units]

nice 35-1 bet btw

 

[misschung]

nice 35-1 bet btw

I was coming in to post "sick brag" on the 35-1 bet broooooo


Good bet although its never gonna top our bets on tigers at 100-1 in 2006 (SICK BRAGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG, SICK BEATTTTTTTTT)

 

[braves]

braves will lose in 4, don't hedge

 

[KJ]

i think you are really a dodgers fan

go cuban or go home

 

[orangemonk]

nice 35-1 bet btw

Haha Ty. Placed when I heard the nolasco rumors starting to heat up and the trade happened a few days later. Think I'm definitely gonna let it ride game 1 and re-evaluate from there. Sad that uggla didn't make the roster

 

[braves]

U dont have to say how much, but im assuming you didnt put a whole bunch of money on a 35~1 bet...

 

[Lareux]

U dont have to say how much, but im assuming you didnt put a whole bunch of money on a 35~1 bet...

One unit, according to his initial post.

 

[braves]

Okay, me personally id hope they get to series before i thought about hedging..

 

[orangemonk]

I probably won't, maybe something small in the nlcs if they make it just to get my unit back for personal satisfaction -- I am interested to hear theories though, as I am still haunted by the only other MLB future I've ever played, Tigers 100/1 in 2006 that I let ride and lost on in the World Series when I think the cards were like +180 series dogs (sry for "brag" but it's always in the back of my mind and I'm not sure I played it right... I'm obsessed with learning from my mistakes)

 

[BetCrimes1984]

If it was my bet, I agree with those who said no hedge vs the Braves. I'd only start to think about dealing with individual games down the stretch of this series if & when things got to looking bad.