Hedge Question
- Thread starter Cgreen54
- Start date
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
I would ride it out...but depends on your situation, how big you went on it, etc.
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
stop pissing your money away.
adding another team you're going to hedge accomplishes nothing but locking in less money than you would have been paid if you didn't add that selection in the first place.
read the 2nd and 3rd post here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sports-betting/official-should-i-hedge-thread-1264339/
adding another team you're going to hedge accomplishes nothing but locking in less money than you would have been paid if you didn't add that selection in the first place.
read the 2nd and 3rd post here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sports-betting/official-should-i-hedge-thread-1264339/
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
Did you even read what I posted or the link? He'd have guaranteed himself more money if he hadn't even put the cardinals into the parlay. There is no logical reason to include a team in a parlay only to hedge it later.
Long time lurker, first time poster.
What I personally do is utilize Live Betting for hedging. The minute the team you bet on takes a lead (hopefully they do), you take the other team for a small amount at + odds.
Obviously it doesn't work everytime but more often than not you are not forced to hedge in the beginning of the game and wait until your team takes the lead.
Example: yesterday I had the Devil Rays to end a parlay - $300/$485. The minute the Rays took the 1-0 lead, I took the Red Sox at +205 in the 7th inning for $150 guaranteeing I cannot lose money.
Just another angle.
What I personally do is utilize Live Betting for hedging. The minute the team you bet on takes a lead (hopefully they do), you take the other team for a small amount at + odds.
Obviously it doesn't work everytime but more often than not you are not forced to hedge in the beginning of the game and wait until your team takes the lead.
Example: yesterday I had the Devil Rays to end a parlay - $300/$485. The minute the Rays took the 1-0 lead, I took the Red Sox at +205 in the 7th inning for $150 guaranteeing I cannot lose money.
Just another angle.
xyzky
Pretty much a regular
:shake:
xyzky
Pretty much a regular
quite simply...if you have a ML parlay or a teaser in b-ball or football and you have time to bet the other way you will have a middle opportunity while locking in a profit.
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
why wouldn't you rather have a greater profit already locked in rather than giving some of that profit away on a hedge? teaser strategy is much different than what we are talking about here.
xyzky
Pretty much a regular
true
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
I would never play a straight 3 teamer then want to edge,what was the point in including the 3rd team in the first place ? youre losing juice now if you do.
A round robin with multiple bets running Id have to think a little more but at the end of the day you knew/hoped youd be wanting the 3rd leg.
A round robin with multiple bets running Id have to think a little more but at the end of the day you knew/hoped youd be wanting the 3rd leg.
Jayhawk Nation
Voice of Reason
I get the 'why put them in the parlay if you want to hedge now' argument, and for the most part I agree for a parlay with a small amount of teams or smaller amount of return.
But just speaking of what Cub linked to, I disagree completely.
The other day I had just a stupid parlay. I have mild OCD, and like even numbers on my balances, but found myself on an off number. To compensate, I did just a silly Parlay, it was an 8 teamer for $56 (to win like $8400 or something). Well I had a good day and all of the first 7 legs hit, last leg was the Chargers late Sunday -5.
So I either let $56 ride or try to hedge. No brainer imo. I put $2750-$2500 on the Raiders +6.5 (so had a slight middle opportunity). We all know the Raiders won.
So instead of being -$56 without hedging, I was +$2694 with the hedge. If the Chargers would have covered I would have been +$5650 (Not to mention the middle opportunity).
SO how is hedging dumb? either risk minus money or guarantee plus money. Seems like a pretty easy solution to me. If you can guarantee a profit why wouldn't you take it?
But just speaking of what Cub linked to, I disagree completely.
The other day I had just a stupid parlay. I have mild OCD, and like even numbers on my balances, but found myself on an off number. To compensate, I did just a silly Parlay, it was an 8 teamer for $56 (to win like $8400 or something). Well I had a good day and all of the first 7 legs hit, last leg was the Chargers late Sunday -5.
So I either let $56 ride or try to hedge. No brainer imo. I put $2750-$2500 on the Raiders +6.5 (so had a slight middle opportunity). We all know the Raiders won.
So instead of being -$56 without hedging, I was +$2694 with the hedge. If the Chargers would have covered I would have been +$5650 (Not to mention the middle opportunity).
SO how is hedging dumb? either risk minus money or guarantee plus money. Seems like a pretty easy solution to me. If you can guarantee a profit why wouldn't you take it?
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
Thats an 8 teamer hail mary with a slight middle opp tho Jayhawk..... bit different imo
Jayhawk Nation
Voice of Reason
I agree that was a strange and fortunate situation to be in, but it seems Cub is saying you should never hedge. I am saying that if you can guarantee a profit on a wager shouldn't you? Just responsible money management.
IN this situation I would not hedge because the 'guaranteed' profit number is small. But in some cases where you can guarantee a sizable profit no matter where a game lands, I will take the hedge and go to bad happy and not even think about the game.
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
In your case I would of hedged a little....but thats a diff scenario....you never expected to be in that position and only were cause you are ill lol,j/k but greenie should of just played single bets and rolled up whatever he was comfortable with,I bet you even had to work out how much you wanted if the bolts covered it was that much of a longshot.
Anyhow,GL Greeny hope you make the right choice :cheers:
Anyhow,GL Greeny hope you make the right choice :cheers:
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ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
hey sorry,nice little hit Jayhawk congrats :cheers:
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
if you had ANY doubt whatsoever about wainwright and the cards you should have just made it a two game parlay and then you could have bet the cards tonight... there is not a higher payout just because you parlay them on one ticket
that is one reason parlays are sucker bets...
that is one reason parlays are sucker bets...
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
Go for it... Bottom line, it's your money. Risking $0 to win $400 is never a bad proposition in my book.
I don't think Fister at -170 and Kershaw -240 in a 2 team parlay would have been more profitable than the hedge though...
xyzky
Pretty much a regular
Nothing wrong w/that
orangemonk
Creep - Dee oh double gee
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
Well if you parlay the first two and win... You get the funds deposited in your account. And then since you have TIME... You actually get to decide if or not you want to bet on the cards all the way up until the game starts... And if you don't you make out with with the $250 profit on the kershaw/Fister parlay.
If you decide to then bet on waino... You bet $450 on the cards. And your payout is basically the same. Locking it early is dumb IMO
If I did that, I could have lost my entire original wager amount in addition to my profits. I ended up risking $0 to make $492 and am quite satisfied.
xyzky
Pretty much a regular
:shake: Pay no attention to him
orangemonk
Creep - Dee oh double gee
So results oriented. What happens if they are down 4-0 and your in-game hedge costs -400 instead of +400?
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
I wish cubsker would post more. People like to give nba a hard time but he offers solid information every day.
xyzky
Pretty much a regular
Again, we are just talking about certain types of parlays with certain sports correct? Because, there are a lot of advantages with ML's & Teasers in football and basketball.
