Hedge? Carolina 60-1 and New Orleans 16-1

[yurf]

Any way to try and string out some profit on these? I have Carolina 60-1 for 1 and NO 16-1 at 2. Both bets made preseason. Obviously if the both won it would be incredible but I really can't see Carolina winning and Seattle is a tough place to play if not the toughest.

 

[Lareux]

Any way to try and string out some profit on these? I have Carolina 60-1 for 1 and NO 16-1 at 2. Both bets made preseason. Obviously if the both won it would be incredible but I really can't see Carolina winning and Seattle is a tough place to play if not the toughest.

You can bet on SF Sunday to hedge the Carolina future. You said you can't see Carolina winning, so I'm assuming that you're going to bet on SF.

 

[detroit187]

would wait it out one more week and hope one wins....then start the hedging, too early for me personally. counter productive almost.

 

[yurf]

Rather than wait another week...shouldn't I at least get my original 200 back? There has to be a math guy much smarter than me able to put together the scenarios to ensure profit. I hope one or both win but probability has to be over 50% both lose, no?

 

[Lareux]

would wait it out one more week and hope one wins....then start the hedging, too early for me personally. counter productive almost.

At 60-1 for Carolina at 1 unit, he can certainly afford a bit of a hedge on SF this week. Especially since he doesn't think Carolina wins anyway.

 

[Lareux]

Rather than wait another week...shouldn't I at least get my original 200 back? There has to be a math guy much smarter than me able to put together the scenarios to ensure profit. I hope one or both win but probability has to be over 50% both lose, no?

There's no exact answer as to when to hedge though. Since it's not the SB yet, and Car/NO aren't playing against each other for the NFC, there won't be "an" answer. It's up to you what you want to do. You have one unit on Car, and 2 on NO if I'm reading it correctly....what is the unit size for you to have $200 out there? Having 3 units for $200 would mean the unit size is $66 but that doesn't make sense really.

 

[yurf]

If I bet 1000 on San Fran and Carolina wins then still 50 to work with. Not much I can do with New Orleans given SEA -375ish ML. Worst case I am +700 after juice if both lose. Otherwise, still live with Carolina and 5k to play with or NO 1.8 to play with. Problem is if Seattle wins I will have same ML issue with dog.

 

[yurf]

At 60-1 for Carolina at 1 unit, he can certainly afford a bit of a hedge on SF this week. Especially since he doesn't think Carolina wins anyway.

Playing to ultimately win 1800 on NO and 6000 on CAR.

 

[madshooter]

Don't be surprised when Carolina wins tomorrow.....Saints winning will be tough, but maybe you can get lucky and hit Sea in live betting.

 

[orangemonk]

:thinking:

 

[orangemonk]

why do you think there's over a 50% chance that a pick 'em and a +8 both lose?

 

[yurf]

why do you think there's over a 50% chance that a pick 'em and a +8 both lose?

Based on the ML's the Saints have roughly a 21% chance to win and Carolina has roughly a 48% to win.

 

[orangemonk]

exactly.

 

[scdoggy]

1/5th +1/2 brother. You're looking at just under 60% if your numbers are correct..... Wait and see what happens in Sea, then fuck with it.

 

[yurf]

1/5th +1/2 brother. You're looking at just under 60% if your numbers are correct..... Wait and see what happens in Sea, then fuck with it.

Ok, so now what?

 

[scdoggy]

Hedge on Frisco is would I would do. Depends on your goal here....

 

[yurf]

Hedge on Frisco is would I would do. Depends on your goal here....

To profit. 4u on futures. Anything more is breakeven.

 

[scdoggy]

So if you put 4 units on each, then put 12 units on Frisco tomorrow....