NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET FedEXForum in Memphis, Tennessee
Memphis Offense vs. Miami Defense
Defensively, Miami is known for its drop coverage against ball-screens.
The Heat will also use the versatility of its lineup components to switch against ball-screens.
With both tactics, Miami ably protects the paint and keeps a man in front of an opposing potential driver.
There is a flip side to this defensive preference, however: the Heat regularly allow a ton of open threes.
So when you consider betting on Heat games, you will want to look at how well their opponent tends to perform from behind the arc.
I do not like Memphis in this match-up tonight because the Grizzlies rank 29th in three-pointers made.
The Grizzlies rather want to attack inside where the Heat are built defensively to strongly discourage field goal attempts near the basket or in the mid-range.
Moreover, I do not like Memphis tonight because it relies heavily on scoring in transition.
The Grizzly offense lays a lot of eggs — it failed to reach 100 points in its last game against Phoenix, for example.
One reason for these laid eggs is that the Grizzly half-court offense is inefficient. That’s why the Grizzlies need to be effective in transition.
But relying on transition offense is problematic against a Miami defense that ranks best in the NBA in limiting PPP (points per possession) in opposing transition field goal attempts.
In terms of points allowed in transition, Miami owns the NBA’s third-best transition defense.
All of its starters can run the floor, including the versatile and nimble Bam Adebayo.
Defensively, Adebayo's return to Miami’s starting lineup is crucial as he brings his lateral foot speed, his ability to defend in space and in isolation, and his ability to switch on ball-screens into the Heat’s defensive endeavor.
Bam Adebayo
Adebayo’s recovered health is also important to the Heat offense in which he has the third-highest usage rate.
He is typically a frequent screener both for the ball-handler and for Miami’s off-ball actions, which multiple Heat shooters benefit from in order to get open from behind the arc.
He’ll execute a lot of dribble or fake dribble-handoffs for different players.
His dribble hand-offs encourage the side-to-side ball movement that will characterize the Heat offense in its endeavor to shift and disorient the defense.
By shifting the defense, Adebayo helps create spaces inside for Heat players to drive to the basket.
Based on opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket, Memphis’ rim protection is rather mediocre.
The Heat are very efficient in front of the basket thanks to regular All-Stars like Jimmy Butler who love to drive to the basket.
Three-Pointers
Memphis’ perimeter defense is also weak.
Based on frequency rate, the Grizzlies are very vulnerable to allowing wide open three-point attempts.
The Heat are balanced offensively, but they also like to shoot the three, especially with Duncan Robinson.
Particularly benefitting from Adebayo’s varied facilitation, Heat shooters will procure sundry wide open looks against the Grizzly defense.
The Situation
Some bettors make the mistake of conceiving and sticking to vague generalizations, such as the erroneous generalization that you should avoid betting on teams who are playing in consecutive games.
Miami handles this situation exceptionally well: the Heat are 4-1 ATS in the second leg of a back-to-back.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
Hornet Offense vs. Nugget Defense
Charlotte’s offense excels in transition because it is loaded with guys who love to run the floor.
Starting point guard and team assist leader LaMelo Ball also is great at finding guys on the run.
He is a crisp passer whose decision-making complements his positive court vision.
Thanks largely to Melo, the Hornets average the second-most points per game in transition.
This reliance on transition scoring is very positive against a Nugget defense that allows the second-most PPP against transition field goal attempts.
The Nugget defense regularly allows teams to be uniquely efficient when they attack on the move.
Charlotte’s ability to succeed in transition tonight will produce many quick and easy baskets, which is just what you want to see when betting the “over.”
This Hornet offense will also find relatively strong success in the half-court because of Melo and others like Terry Rozier who love to drive the basketball.
Attacking the basket is a common feature in this offense and a feature that it can rely on against a Denver defense that sorely misses adequate rim protection.
As measured by field goal percentage, Denver is the worst team at guarding within five feet of the basket.
Denver Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
Defensively, Charlotte’s defense is weakest along the perimeter. The Hornets allow a lot of open and wide-open three-pointers.
Between Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Denver’s offense can become very creative. Ball-screens and a relatively high number of dribble-handoffs help characterize the team’s overall offensive style, which is molded especially by those two players.
But they can also create for a variety of teammates who love to function as spot-up shooters, one being the lately very hot Will Barton.
With the characteristically efficient Barton, Murray who will also create for himself, and others, Denver makes the ninth-most three-pointers per game.
Given their shooting prowess in their half-court game, the Nuggets match up well against Charlotte with its porous perimeter defense.
Parlay Verdict
Miami’s offensive balance will secure a more than strong enough lead given its opportunities to attack Memphis’ defensive weaknesses.
Bam Adebayo will be important on both ends of the court, creating easier scoring opportunities on one end while helping to protect the paint against the Grizzlies’ one-dimensional, two-point-dependent offense.
Charlotte and Denver will both do what it wants to do offensively. Both defenses will struggle to assert itself in any respect.
Best Bet: Parlay Heat -2 at -108 & Hornets/Nuggets Over 231 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET FedEXForum in Memphis, Tennessee
Memphis Offense vs. Miami Defense
Defensively, Miami is known for its drop coverage against ball-screens.
The Heat will also use the versatility of its lineup components to switch against ball-screens.
With both tactics, Miami ably protects the paint and keeps a man in front of an opposing potential driver.
There is a flip side to this defensive preference, however: the Heat regularly allow a ton of open threes.
So when you consider betting on Heat games, you will want to look at how well their opponent tends to perform from behind the arc.
I do not like Memphis in this match-up tonight because the Grizzlies rank 29th in three-pointers made.
The Grizzlies rather want to attack inside where the Heat are built defensively to strongly discourage field goal attempts near the basket or in the mid-range.
Moreover, I do not like Memphis tonight because it relies heavily on scoring in transition.
The Grizzly offense lays a lot of eggs — it failed to reach 100 points in its last game against Phoenix, for example.
One reason for these laid eggs is that the Grizzly half-court offense is inefficient. That’s why the Grizzlies need to be effective in transition.
But relying on transition offense is problematic against a Miami defense that ranks best in the NBA in limiting PPP (points per possession) in opposing transition field goal attempts.
In terms of points allowed in transition, Miami owns the NBA’s third-best transition defense.
All of its starters can run the floor, including the versatile and nimble Bam Adebayo.
Defensively, Adebayo's return to Miami’s starting lineup is crucial as he brings his lateral foot speed, his ability to defend in space and in isolation, and his ability to switch on ball-screens into the Heat’s defensive endeavor.
Bam Adebayo
Adebayo’s recovered health is also important to the Heat offense in which he has the third-highest usage rate.
He is typically a frequent screener both for the ball-handler and for Miami’s off-ball actions, which multiple Heat shooters benefit from in order to get open from behind the arc.
He’ll execute a lot of dribble or fake dribble-handoffs for different players.
His dribble hand-offs encourage the side-to-side ball movement that will characterize the Heat offense in its endeavor to shift and disorient the defense.
By shifting the defense, Adebayo helps create spaces inside for Heat players to drive to the basket.
Based on opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket, Memphis’ rim protection is rather mediocre.
The Heat are very efficient in front of the basket thanks to regular All-Stars like Jimmy Butler who love to drive to the basket.
Three-Pointers
Memphis’ perimeter defense is also weak.
Based on frequency rate, the Grizzlies are very vulnerable to allowing wide open three-point attempts.
The Heat are balanced offensively, but they also like to shoot the three, especially with Duncan Robinson.
Particularly benefitting from Adebayo’s varied facilitation, Heat shooters will procure sundry wide open looks against the Grizzly defense.
The Situation
Some bettors make the mistake of conceiving and sticking to vague generalizations, such as the erroneous generalization that you should avoid betting on teams who are playing in consecutive games.
Miami handles this situation exceptionally well: the Heat are 4-1 ATS in the second leg of a back-to-back.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
Hornet Offense vs. Nugget Defense
Charlotte’s offense excels in transition because it is loaded with guys who love to run the floor.
Starting point guard and team assist leader LaMelo Ball also is great at finding guys on the run.
He is a crisp passer whose decision-making complements his positive court vision.
Thanks largely to Melo, the Hornets average the second-most points per game in transition.
This reliance on transition scoring is very positive against a Nugget defense that allows the second-most PPP against transition field goal attempts.
The Nugget defense regularly allows teams to be uniquely efficient when they attack on the move.
Charlotte’s ability to succeed in transition tonight will produce many quick and easy baskets, which is just what you want to see when betting the “over.”
This Hornet offense will also find relatively strong success in the half-court because of Melo and others like Terry Rozier who love to drive the basketball.
Attacking the basket is a common feature in this offense and a feature that it can rely on against a Denver defense that sorely misses adequate rim protection.
As measured by field goal percentage, Denver is the worst team at guarding within five feet of the basket.
Denver Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
Defensively, Charlotte’s defense is weakest along the perimeter. The Hornets allow a lot of open and wide-open three-pointers.
Between Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Denver’s offense can become very creative. Ball-screens and a relatively high number of dribble-handoffs help characterize the team’s overall offensive style, which is molded especially by those two players.
But they can also create for a variety of teammates who love to function as spot-up shooters, one being the lately very hot Will Barton.
With the characteristically efficient Barton, Murray who will also create for himself, and others, Denver makes the ninth-most three-pointers per game.
Given their shooting prowess in their half-court game, the Nuggets match up well against Charlotte with its porous perimeter defense.
Parlay Verdict
Miami’s offensive balance will secure a more than strong enough lead given its opportunities to attack Memphis’ defensive weaknesses.
Bam Adebayo will be important on both ends of the court, creating easier scoring opportunities on one end while helping to protect the paint against the Grizzlies’ one-dimensional, two-point-dependent offense.
Charlotte and Denver will both do what it wants to do offensively. Both defenses will struggle to assert itself in any respect.
Best Bet: Parlay Heat -2 at -108 & Hornets/Nuggets Over 231 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
