Hawks vs. Bulls Picks & Predictions January 23: Atlanta to Triumph in Defensive Battle
Best Bet: Under 238.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
Monday, January 23, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago
Chicago's Offensive Focus
Chicago rarely attempts threes and is generally more inclined to attack available mid-range opportunities than to attempt shots at the rim.
In order to develop scoring opportunities inside the arc and in general, the Bulls rely heavily on setting screens for their ball-handler.
They run this play type -- the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type -- with the second-highest frequency.
Given this statistic, it is evidently important to consider the merits of Atlanta's ball-screen defense in order to assess its outlook tonight.
Atlanta's Ball-Screen Defense
One major reason why I like the Hawk defense tonight is that it enjoys a high-quality ball-screen defense.
Atlanta ranks sixth at limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
This statistic might seem odd given star Hawk guard Trae Young's poor defensive reputation.
But on defense, the Hawk backcourt has received a major boost from Hawk newcomer Dejounte Murray.
His presence on defense wasn't always so useful because he had to figure out how to play good team defense on a new team.
But now he clearly understands -- at least on the defensive end of the floor -- how to play with Young.
Murray's Defensive Activity
A large part of Young's poor defensive reputation stems from observations of his invisibility in Atlanta's ball-screen defense.
Generally, he lacks the strength to fight through screens and suffers for having insufficient length.
But Murray is able to help Young out.
Murray has a 6-10 wingspan and confidence in his quickness -- traits which enable Murray to rank sixth in steals, as he uses his active hands to take the ball away from opponents.
So, video footage shows that, when Young gets caught up in a screen, Murray is able to account for the opposing ball-handler especially by disrupting his dribble and to recover back to his man.
Murray's recover ability is important because Young's problem with his ball-screen defense does not entail that Murray takes himself out of position by helping Young.
No Longer Terrible
But also Young's defensive rating has improved.
With Murray impactful on both ends, Young no longer has to carry the show by himself on offense.
Also in view of Murray's help on defense, Young can be more aggressive.
As for his ball-screen coverage, when he has the opportunity to, he'll use his characteristic shiftiness to deter the opposing ball-handler before recovering back to his initial assignment.
This tendency elaborates upon his increased likelihood to avoid switching onto opposing ball-handlers that might present a matchup disadvantage to him.
In sum, Young is at least much less of an easy target for an opposing ball-screen offense.
His and his team's success against Chicago's preferred play type attests to Atlanta's positive defensive outlook tonight.
Hawk Offense
While Murray helps with his characteristic driving actions and scoring in the paint, Young is still the central star of the team's offense.
To be exact, Young leads Atlanta with 27.1 points per game, which is 6.1 points more than any of his teammates.
Largely due to Young, Atlanta runs the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the NBA's highest frequency.
This play type best allows Young to thrive -- if he is to thrive at all.
It is what Young is most comfortable executing -- he'll use screens to try to score in a variety of ways, such as by pulling up for a three or for a mid-range jumper or by finding a teammate at the rim.
Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu
Bull guard Alex Caruso is well-reputed for his defensive abilities -- he has deservedly received All-NBA Defensive Team votes.
He ably locks down the opposing guard in the half-court while his 0.87 opposing PPP on the pick and-roll for the ball-handler play type specifically indicates the usefulness of his defense to tonight's game.
Fellow Bull guard Ayo Dosunmu will also display his effectivity on defense tonight.
In Chicago's December 21 win over Atlanta, Dosunmu was responsible for Young's 2-for-10 shooting performance in the second half.
At 6-4, Dosunmu has very nice length, whereas Young lacks the length to shoot over opposing ball-handlers.
Dosunmu has the physical traits necessary to stick with Young all the way to the end, when Dosunmu disrupts Young's shot.
Atlanta's Problematic Half-Court Offense
The chemistry between Murray and Young has not extended so much to the team's half-court offense.
This problem shouldn't be surprising in view of each player's history as a ball-dominant guard.
Unfortunately for both players, two guys can't have the ball at the same time.
Their lack of offensive chemistry helps the team rank below-average in offensive rating.
Moreover, they suffer for having let go shooters like Kevin Huerter.
Young and important shooting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic are both cold from deep, although even their better days have failed to help Atlanta rank better than 23rdin three-point percentage.
In order to score a lot, the Hawks will want to execute a strong transition offense, so as to avoid having to rely on its half-court offense.
But, as measured by percentile, Chicago owns the ninth-best defense in transition.
The Verdict
Both teams will struggle to score because their guard play will struggle as both defenses lock down the opposing ball-screen offense.
I like the Hawks because their offensive ceiling appears much higher, especially if one of their guards ends their three-point shooting slump tonight.
Most importantly, especially with former All-Defensive candidate Clint Capela healthy again, Atlanta boasts a significant advantage in rim protection.
For the above reasons, bet on Atlanta in addition to the "under."
Best Bet: Hawks +1 at -110 with BetOnline
Best Bet: Under 238.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
Monday, January 23, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago
Chicago's Offensive Focus
Chicago rarely attempts threes and is generally more inclined to attack available mid-range opportunities than to attempt shots at the rim.
In order to develop scoring opportunities inside the arc and in general, the Bulls rely heavily on setting screens for their ball-handler.
They run this play type -- the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type -- with the second-highest frequency.
Given this statistic, it is evidently important to consider the merits of Atlanta's ball-screen defense in order to assess its outlook tonight.
Atlanta's Ball-Screen Defense
One major reason why I like the Hawk defense tonight is that it enjoys a high-quality ball-screen defense.
Atlanta ranks sixth at limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
This statistic might seem odd given star Hawk guard Trae Young's poor defensive reputation.
But on defense, the Hawk backcourt has received a major boost from Hawk newcomer Dejounte Murray.
His presence on defense wasn't always so useful because he had to figure out how to play good team defense on a new team.
But now he clearly understands -- at least on the defensive end of the floor -- how to play with Young.
Murray's Defensive Activity
A large part of Young's poor defensive reputation stems from observations of his invisibility in Atlanta's ball-screen defense.
Generally, he lacks the strength to fight through screens and suffers for having insufficient length.
But Murray is able to help Young out.
Murray has a 6-10 wingspan and confidence in his quickness -- traits which enable Murray to rank sixth in steals, as he uses his active hands to take the ball away from opponents.
So, video footage shows that, when Young gets caught up in a screen, Murray is able to account for the opposing ball-handler especially by disrupting his dribble and to recover back to his man.
Murray's recover ability is important because Young's problem with his ball-screen defense does not entail that Murray takes himself out of position by helping Young.
No Longer Terrible
But also Young's defensive rating has improved.
With Murray impactful on both ends, Young no longer has to carry the show by himself on offense.
Also in view of Murray's help on defense, Young can be more aggressive.
As for his ball-screen coverage, when he has the opportunity to, he'll use his characteristic shiftiness to deter the opposing ball-handler before recovering back to his initial assignment.
This tendency elaborates upon his increased likelihood to avoid switching onto opposing ball-handlers that might present a matchup disadvantage to him.
In sum, Young is at least much less of an easy target for an opposing ball-screen offense.
His and his team's success against Chicago's preferred play type attests to Atlanta's positive defensive outlook tonight.
Hawk Offense
While Murray helps with his characteristic driving actions and scoring in the paint, Young is still the central star of the team's offense.
To be exact, Young leads Atlanta with 27.1 points per game, which is 6.1 points more than any of his teammates.
Largely due to Young, Atlanta runs the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the NBA's highest frequency.
This play type best allows Young to thrive -- if he is to thrive at all.
It is what Young is most comfortable executing -- he'll use screens to try to score in a variety of ways, such as by pulling up for a three or for a mid-range jumper or by finding a teammate at the rim.
Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu
Bull guard Alex Caruso is well-reputed for his defensive abilities -- he has deservedly received All-NBA Defensive Team votes.
He ably locks down the opposing guard in the half-court while his 0.87 opposing PPP on the pick and-roll for the ball-handler play type specifically indicates the usefulness of his defense to tonight's game.
Fellow Bull guard Ayo Dosunmu will also display his effectivity on defense tonight.
In Chicago's December 21 win over Atlanta, Dosunmu was responsible for Young's 2-for-10 shooting performance in the second half.
At 6-4, Dosunmu has very nice length, whereas Young lacks the length to shoot over opposing ball-handlers.
Dosunmu has the physical traits necessary to stick with Young all the way to the end, when Dosunmu disrupts Young's shot.
Atlanta's Problematic Half-Court Offense
The chemistry between Murray and Young has not extended so much to the team's half-court offense.
This problem shouldn't be surprising in view of each player's history as a ball-dominant guard.
Unfortunately for both players, two guys can't have the ball at the same time.
Their lack of offensive chemistry helps the team rank below-average in offensive rating.
Moreover, they suffer for having let go shooters like Kevin Huerter.
Young and important shooting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic are both cold from deep, although even their better days have failed to help Atlanta rank better than 23rdin three-point percentage.
In order to score a lot, the Hawks will want to execute a strong transition offense, so as to avoid having to rely on its half-court offense.
But, as measured by percentile, Chicago owns the ninth-best defense in transition.
The Verdict
Both teams will struggle to score because their guard play will struggle as both defenses lock down the opposing ball-screen offense.
I like the Hawks because their offensive ceiling appears much higher, especially if one of their guards ends their three-point shooting slump tonight.
Most importantly, especially with former All-Defensive candidate Clint Capela healthy again, Atlanta boasts a significant advantage in rim protection.
For the above reasons, bet on Atlanta in addition to the "under."
Best Bet: Hawks +1 at -110 with BetOnline
