Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for July 1
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Stars Are Overrated
We live in a media-dominant age in which we are constantly exposed to media organs that praise the superstar and that condition us to worship the superstar.
This daily exposure is bad for betting because it encourages us to attach an unrealistic degree of significance to star players.
But this year's playoffs, a playoffs that is unusual in the sense that several star players have suffered injuries, has provided a testament to the ability of teams to survive or even perform better without their stars.
You might think of counterpoints like the Lakers, who missed Anthony Davis after he went down during their series with Phoenix.
But the Lakers were not a championship-caliber team like the teams that are still left in this year's playoffs.
A team will not make it this far -- to the Conference Finals -- while depending so heavily on one player.
The Clippers, for example, advanced as far as they did despite missing Kawhi. The Suns missed Chris Paul for multiple games.
The Nets almost made it to the Conference Finals despite missing Kyrie Irving and James Harden.
in Game 4, we just saw Atlanta not only win but dominate Milwaukee despite not having Trae Young available, its star point guard who is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game with a bone bruise in his right foot.
Now, it's true that Milwaukee struggled in Game 4 without Giannis. But so did Atlanta, in Game 3, after Trae's injury slowed him down.
It is hard to adjust, in the moment, to your star player getting hurt. However, the situation changes completely when you can prepare for the significantly altered lineup.
Giannis, by the way, is listed as "doubtful" for tonight's game after he suffered hyper-extension in his left knee during Game 4.
Replacing Giannis: Three-Pointers
Milwaukee is going to thrive more greatly on offense in order to counteract any regression in defensive quality that Giannis' absence may generate.
In watching Milwaukee, it's been apparent that Giannis actually bogs down the offense. He slows things down by insisting on scoring in the paint.
Without Giannis, the Bucks are going to use good ball movement to speed things up.
This is a great shooting team -- and it always has been one not because of but despite Giannis, who recently felled compelled to reduce his three-point shooting volume because of his inefficiency behind the arc.
Counting both regular season and playoffs, Milwaukee ranks seventh in three-pointers made per game. The Bucks rank 11 spots higher in this category than the Hawks.
This ability to thrive from beyond the arc is crucial in what is extensively a make-or-miss league. Teams win, largely, by shooting more efficiently from three.
Home court carries a level of significance that is difficult to quantify because, as you'd expect, the Bucks shoot much better on their court. Their three-point shooting percentage is 1.8 higher at home than on the road.
They like to space the floor and kick it out, in both instances taking advantage of a defense -- like Atlanta's -- that does a poor job of limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Stepping Up
Without Giannis, other Buck players will rally together, feeling that they have to play better collectively in order to make up for Giannis' absence.
In addition to relying on three-pointers, the Bucks will invest more minutes in Bobby Portis.
Despite playing fewer minutes, he is already averaging double digits this season.
Furthermore, Milwaukee will lean on Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton.
Holiday, who was recently named a member of the NBA All-Defense First Team, is a pivotal weapon against Atlanta's guard-centered offense.
He is also a top scorer. In this postseason, he averages 16.5 points per game while Middleton averages 22.7.
Both can get their own basket and like to thrive inside, particularly in the mid-range, where their success can help open more opportunities for teammates behind the arc.
Holiday also made over 41 percent of his three-point attempts at home this year while Middleton made 46.8 percent of them.
Surprise
Generally, the Bucks will benefit from having an element of surprise. Atlanta, this series, has gameplanned for dealing with Giannis.
With Giannis missing from Milwaukee's lineup, the Hawks can only have much less of an idea of what to expect from the Bucks.
This element doesn't exist any longer for Atlanta, who showed its cards without Young.
If Young plays, he may play hobbled and this could be worse for Atlanta than if he didn't play.
Best Bet: Bucks ML at -125 with Bovada
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Stars Are Overrated
We live in a media-dominant age in which we are constantly exposed to media organs that praise the superstar and that condition us to worship the superstar.
This daily exposure is bad for betting because it encourages us to attach an unrealistic degree of significance to star players.
But this year's playoffs, a playoffs that is unusual in the sense that several star players have suffered injuries, has provided a testament to the ability of teams to survive or even perform better without their stars.
You might think of counterpoints like the Lakers, who missed Anthony Davis after he went down during their series with Phoenix.
But the Lakers were not a championship-caliber team like the teams that are still left in this year's playoffs.
A team will not make it this far -- to the Conference Finals -- while depending so heavily on one player.
The Clippers, for example, advanced as far as they did despite missing Kawhi. The Suns missed Chris Paul for multiple games.
The Nets almost made it to the Conference Finals despite missing Kyrie Irving and James Harden.
in Game 4, we just saw Atlanta not only win but dominate Milwaukee despite not having Trae Young available, its star point guard who is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game with a bone bruise in his right foot.
Now, it's true that Milwaukee struggled in Game 4 without Giannis. But so did Atlanta, in Game 3, after Trae's injury slowed him down.
It is hard to adjust, in the moment, to your star player getting hurt. However, the situation changes completely when you can prepare for the significantly altered lineup.
Giannis, by the way, is listed as "doubtful" for tonight's game after he suffered hyper-extension in his left knee during Game 4.
Replacing Giannis: Three-Pointers
Milwaukee is going to thrive more greatly on offense in order to counteract any regression in defensive quality that Giannis' absence may generate.
In watching Milwaukee, it's been apparent that Giannis actually bogs down the offense. He slows things down by insisting on scoring in the paint.
Without Giannis, the Bucks are going to use good ball movement to speed things up.
This is a great shooting team -- and it always has been one not because of but despite Giannis, who recently felled compelled to reduce his three-point shooting volume because of his inefficiency behind the arc.
Counting both regular season and playoffs, Milwaukee ranks seventh in three-pointers made per game. The Bucks rank 11 spots higher in this category than the Hawks.
This ability to thrive from beyond the arc is crucial in what is extensively a make-or-miss league. Teams win, largely, by shooting more efficiently from three.
Home court carries a level of significance that is difficult to quantify because, as you'd expect, the Bucks shoot much better on their court. Their three-point shooting percentage is 1.8 higher at home than on the road.
They like to space the floor and kick it out, in both instances taking advantage of a defense -- like Atlanta's -- that does a poor job of limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Stepping Up
Without Giannis, other Buck players will rally together, feeling that they have to play better collectively in order to make up for Giannis' absence.
In addition to relying on three-pointers, the Bucks will invest more minutes in Bobby Portis.
Despite playing fewer minutes, he is already averaging double digits this season.
Furthermore, Milwaukee will lean on Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton.
Holiday, who was recently named a member of the NBA All-Defense First Team, is a pivotal weapon against Atlanta's guard-centered offense.
He is also a top scorer. In this postseason, he averages 16.5 points per game while Middleton averages 22.7.
Both can get their own basket and like to thrive inside, particularly in the mid-range, where their success can help open more opportunities for teammates behind the arc.
Holiday also made over 41 percent of his three-point attempts at home this year while Middleton made 46.8 percent of them.
Surprise
Generally, the Bucks will benefit from having an element of surprise. Atlanta, this series, has gameplanned for dealing with Giannis.
With Giannis missing from Milwaukee's lineup, the Hawks can only have much less of an idea of what to expect from the Bucks.
This element doesn't exist any longer for Atlanta, who showed its cards without Young.
If Young plays, he may play hobbled and this could be worse for Atlanta than if he didn't play.
Best Bet: Bucks ML at -125 with Bovada
