NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Atlanta Hawks vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, March 30, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Phoenix’ Defense
By several statistical measures, the Sun defense must be considered top-level. For example, the Suns rank third in limiting opponents to 107 points per game.
Strong defense has, in particular, featured in Phoenix’s most recent stretch of play. Phoenix has allowed 100 points or fewer in four of its last five games.
One thing that the Suns do well is defend against the pick-and-roll.
Since the Boston Celtics like to run ball-screen actions, you can basically see a whole three-minute clip of Sun defenders defending ball-screens:
Note some things about the Suns' play: one, the ability to Sun bigs, when momentarily switched onto the opposing ball-handler, to keep the ball-handler in front of them until the original on-ball defender arrives to contest his shot attempt or otherwise guard his man.
When an individual Sun defender does find himself in trouble inside, like against a smaller and faster player, you'll observe the help defense converging on the ball-handler in order to prevent an easy shot attempt, or, as you see at 2:03 in the above video, to prevent any shot attempt.
Often times, a third defender will help out against a driving ball-handler, stunting him in order to constrain his path and guide him to where the defense can establish stronger guarding position.
So two traits that make the Sun defense so strong is the versatility and lateral movement of its bigs and, as cliché as it might sound, teamwork.
Mikal Bridges
While there are a host of Sun defenders in possession of a strong defensive rating, ensuring that even bench players will maintain the starters’ high defensive quality on the floor, arguably one defender stands out for Phoenix.
Mikal Bridges is unique because of the difficult assignments that he is repeatedly faced with.
Bridges is able to handle those assignments because he has the lateral movement to stay with speedy guards and otherwise to mirror what opposing ball-handlers try to accomplish. He also has the length to be disruptive.
And he wants to play defense. He is a high-energy defender, as you see when he rotates out to meet a potential shooter behind the arc.
So in addition to the versatility of Phoenix’s bigs and teamwork, depth and Mikal Bridges’ individual quality explain why the Sun defense is so strong.
Atlanta Offense vs. Phoenix Defense
Ball-screen defense is a particularly relevant strength of the Sun defense tonight because the Hawks rely rather heavily on setting screens.
Point guard Trae Young forms the centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense as he’ll use ball-screens at the NBA's third-highest frequency.
But the Suns are uniquely well-equipped to limit Atlanta’s offensive emphasis because the Suns rank best in the NBA in limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on ball-screen plays designed for the ball-handler.
Phoenix Offense vs. Atlanta Defense
Defensively, Atlanta does not rival Phoenix’s defensive quality.
Besides ranking nine spots behind the Suns in scoring defense this season, the Hawks’ recent regression in scoring defense reflects a renewed tendency to slacken in the latter portion of a road trip.
With De’Andre Hunter, who’s supported by the length, lateral movement, and foot speed that explain his solid defensive rating, listed as ‘questionable’ and in any case still limited and not himself after surgery, the Hawks’ defensive troubles are primed to continue.
Offensively, the Suns thrive in the mid-range, an area where in terms of opposing field goal percentage, the Hawks struggle more to defend.
You can see an old but still relevant highlight reel of Devin Booker knocking down midrange jumpers:
His nice release and smooth pull-up motion help explain his efficiency in the midrange where he complements teammates like Chris Paul.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Washington Wizards
Tuesday, March 30, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
Rallying The Defense
Since starting point guard LaMelo Ball fractured his wrist, the Hornet offense has lowered its ceiling, as evident in its recent reduction in scoring.
With less offense, they have rallied to play stronger defensively.
In particular, in their last four games, they allowed 97 to San Antonio, 97 to Houston, 105 to Miami, and 101 to Phoenix.
One explanation for this improvement is personnel. The Hornets are giving more defensively minded players more minutes.
Cody Martin, for example, boasts an excellent defensive rating and is receiving 10 more minutes per game in March than he did in February.
When teams want to improve defensively, they will often slow things down tempo-wise. A slower tempo can encourage an uptick in defensive energy.
The Hornets are doing just that — slowing tempo, in fact playing at the NBA’s slowest pace in their past four games — which is yielding the twofold effect of improving their team defensive rating and of limiting the number of possessions a game.
Fewer possessions is just what we want for an “under” because they entail fewer scoring opportunities.
Hornet Defense vs. Wizards Offense
The Hornets can hustle, play a physical style of defense, and bring sufficient energy to succeed in a full-court press.
With these qualities, they force a lot of turnovers, which have been relatively difficult for the Wizard offense to prevent.
In addition to forcing turnovers, Charlotte can find itself rewarded by its characteristic proclivity to play zone defense.
Washington, which ranks towards the bottom in both three-point percentage and three-pointers made per game, lacks the personnel to exploit a zone with shooting.
What the zone does is switch things up and give an opposing offense something new to deal with.
Zone defense can also make driving inside harder.
Not that he’s an efficient three-point shooter, anyways, but if Bradley Beal is still unable to play tonight — he’s currently listed as ‘questionable’ with a right hip contusion — then the Wizards become that much more reliant on Russell Westbrook, who is a characteristically awful shooter who primarily would like to drive inside.
Parlay Verdict
The Suns’ defensive advantage — especially their ball-screen defense — will secure them a cover against a Hawk team that will struggle to limit the Sun offense where it likes to thrive.
Charlotte will continue its strong defensive play against an already turnover-prone Wizard offense that will succumb to the stylistic variance of Charlotte’s defensive variety.
Best Bet: Parlay Suns ATS & Hornets/Wizards “Under” (Odds TBA)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, March 30, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Phoenix’ Defense
By several statistical measures, the Sun defense must be considered top-level. For example, the Suns rank third in limiting opponents to 107 points per game.
Strong defense has, in particular, featured in Phoenix’s most recent stretch of play. Phoenix has allowed 100 points or fewer in four of its last five games.
One thing that the Suns do well is defend against the pick-and-roll.
Since the Boston Celtics like to run ball-screen actions, you can basically see a whole three-minute clip of Sun defenders defending ball-screens:
Note some things about the Suns' play: one, the ability to Sun bigs, when momentarily switched onto the opposing ball-handler, to keep the ball-handler in front of them until the original on-ball defender arrives to contest his shot attempt or otherwise guard his man.
When an individual Sun defender does find himself in trouble inside, like against a smaller and faster player, you'll observe the help defense converging on the ball-handler in order to prevent an easy shot attempt, or, as you see at 2:03 in the above video, to prevent any shot attempt.
Often times, a third defender will help out against a driving ball-handler, stunting him in order to constrain his path and guide him to where the defense can establish stronger guarding position.
So two traits that make the Sun defense so strong is the versatility and lateral movement of its bigs and, as cliché as it might sound, teamwork.
Mikal Bridges
While there are a host of Sun defenders in possession of a strong defensive rating, ensuring that even bench players will maintain the starters’ high defensive quality on the floor, arguably one defender stands out for Phoenix.
Mikal Bridges is unique because of the difficult assignments that he is repeatedly faced with.
Bridges is able to handle those assignments because he has the lateral movement to stay with speedy guards and otherwise to mirror what opposing ball-handlers try to accomplish. He also has the length to be disruptive.
And he wants to play defense. He is a high-energy defender, as you see when he rotates out to meet a potential shooter behind the arc.
So in addition to the versatility of Phoenix’s bigs and teamwork, depth and Mikal Bridges’ individual quality explain why the Sun defense is so strong.
Atlanta Offense vs. Phoenix Defense
Ball-screen defense is a particularly relevant strength of the Sun defense tonight because the Hawks rely rather heavily on setting screens.
Point guard Trae Young forms the centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense as he’ll use ball-screens at the NBA's third-highest frequency.
But the Suns are uniquely well-equipped to limit Atlanta’s offensive emphasis because the Suns rank best in the NBA in limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on ball-screen plays designed for the ball-handler.
Phoenix Offense vs. Atlanta Defense
Defensively, Atlanta does not rival Phoenix’s defensive quality.
Besides ranking nine spots behind the Suns in scoring defense this season, the Hawks’ recent regression in scoring defense reflects a renewed tendency to slacken in the latter portion of a road trip.
With De’Andre Hunter, who’s supported by the length, lateral movement, and foot speed that explain his solid defensive rating, listed as ‘questionable’ and in any case still limited and not himself after surgery, the Hawks’ defensive troubles are primed to continue.
Offensively, the Suns thrive in the mid-range, an area where in terms of opposing field goal percentage, the Hawks struggle more to defend.
You can see an old but still relevant highlight reel of Devin Booker knocking down midrange jumpers:
His nice release and smooth pull-up motion help explain his efficiency in the midrange where he complements teammates like Chris Paul.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Washington Wizards
Tuesday, March 30, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
Rallying The Defense
Since starting point guard LaMelo Ball fractured his wrist, the Hornet offense has lowered its ceiling, as evident in its recent reduction in scoring.
With less offense, they have rallied to play stronger defensively.
In particular, in their last four games, they allowed 97 to San Antonio, 97 to Houston, 105 to Miami, and 101 to Phoenix.
One explanation for this improvement is personnel. The Hornets are giving more defensively minded players more minutes.
Cody Martin, for example, boasts an excellent defensive rating and is receiving 10 more minutes per game in March than he did in February.
When teams want to improve defensively, they will often slow things down tempo-wise. A slower tempo can encourage an uptick in defensive energy.
The Hornets are doing just that — slowing tempo, in fact playing at the NBA’s slowest pace in their past four games — which is yielding the twofold effect of improving their team defensive rating and of limiting the number of possessions a game.
Fewer possessions is just what we want for an “under” because they entail fewer scoring opportunities.
Hornet Defense vs. Wizards Offense
The Hornets can hustle, play a physical style of defense, and bring sufficient energy to succeed in a full-court press.
With these qualities, they force a lot of turnovers, which have been relatively difficult for the Wizard offense to prevent.
In addition to forcing turnovers, Charlotte can find itself rewarded by its characteristic proclivity to play zone defense.
Washington, which ranks towards the bottom in both three-point percentage and three-pointers made per game, lacks the personnel to exploit a zone with shooting.
What the zone does is switch things up and give an opposing offense something new to deal with.
Zone defense can also make driving inside harder.
Not that he’s an efficient three-point shooter, anyways, but if Bradley Beal is still unable to play tonight — he’s currently listed as ‘questionable’ with a right hip contusion — then the Wizards become that much more reliant on Russell Westbrook, who is a characteristically awful shooter who primarily would like to drive inside.
Parlay Verdict
The Suns’ defensive advantage — especially their ball-screen defense — will secure them a cover against a Hawk team that will struggle to limit the Sun offense where it likes to thrive.
Charlotte will continue its strong defensive play against an already turnover-prone Wizard offense that will succumb to the stylistic variance of Charlotte’s defensive variety.
Best Bet: Parlay Suns ATS & Hornets/Wizards “Under” (Odds TBA)
