Today's Plays Include a (+257) NBA Playoffs Parlay
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at FTX Arena in Miami
Stopping Trae Young
Last year, Atlanta relied primarily on its star point guard Trae Young in order to advance as far into the playoffs as it did.
So far this series, though, it has become clear that Young's ability to help his team is limited.
In terms of stats, he is mustering 16.5 points per game, has as many turnovers (24) as assists, is converting 35 percent of his field goals and 21 percent of his three-pointers.
The Heat are leading this series 3-1 primarily because they are stopping Atlanta's best offensive player.
Arguably the most important question for tonight's game is: will the Heat continue to succeed in their endeavor to limit Young's productivity?
Why and How
I think that the Heat will continue limiting Young because they have the personnel on defense to do so.
Miami is a unique team given the sheer number of strong defenders on its roster. This number explains why only two teams are allowing fewer points per game than the Heat and it explains why the Heat are so strong on defense in this series.
Heat defenders are taking away the spaces that Young relies on in order to be dangerous on offense.
By taking away these spaces, they keep Young from attacking downhill.
Characteristically, Young loves to attack the basket at propitious angles which he uses to do a variety of things like attempt floaters or lobs, pass to a teammate, and so on.
But he can't do any of these things when he can't get these angles via the dribble-drive in the first place.
Instead, Young is being forced to jack up a lot of shots.
Various Heat defenders are teaming up in order to make Young uncomfortable in these ways.
Guys like physical veteran PJ Tucker and others show the breadth of quality in Miami's personnel on defense.
Jimmy Butler
Whereas Atlanta's best offensive player is struggling, Miami's is not.
He is averaging 30.5 points per game on 20.3 field goal attempts.
He's converting 44.3 percent of his three-point attempts and amassing 8.5 free throws, 7.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.8 steals per game.
People refuse to accord Jimmy Butler superstar status and I'm not here to debate semantics.
The point is that he gives Miami a consistent source of productivity on offense that refuses the common perception of Miami as a team that, like the 2004 Pistons, scores primarily by committee.
Depth
Miami also enjoys way more sources of productivity on offense than Atlanta.
Guys like Max Strus and, his prior long-term health issues notwithstanding, Victor Oladipo are effective off the bench.
Strus is a good shooter -- he's shooting 41 percent from deep this season -- while Oladipo brings good chemistry at point guard where he finally gives the Heat more depth at the position.
The ability of even reserve guys to add to Miami's offense easily gives it the firepower to outpace the Young-led Hawks.
Defense
Belaboring Miami's offensive success is analytically valuable because defense is Miami's calling card.
Ranking third at limiting opposing points per game, the Heat have one of the NBA's strongest defenses.
Their scheming is clearly excellent, which is why Young is struggling, and everything else that they do gives their offense a larger margin of error in terms of scoring enough points to cover the spread.
Atlanta does not have nearly the same level of quality on defense, which is why Miami's top scorer is able to thrive at will while even reserve Heat players add a lot to their team's scoring output.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis
Oddities
I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but isn't it odd that the teams leading 2-1 were all hurt massively by refereeing?
Memphis was certainly one of those teams in Game 4 as, despite being primarily a team that jacks up threes, Minnesota attempted 40 free throws to Memphis' 25.
I think that the Grizzlies are owed a generous whistle in tonight's game.
But the Timberwolves also needed some other very strange things in order to cover the spread in Game 4.
Backup point guard Jordan McLaughlin had the game of his life with 16 points.
This is a guy who shot under 32 percent from deep during the regular season. But in Game 4 he could hardly miss.
I hear some people claim that Desmond Bane's scoring output was similarly a fluke, but this claim ignores the frequency with which he scores over 20 points. Bane has been a hugely positive surprise.
Conversely, Memphis point guard Ja Morant struggled, mustering all of 11 points.
He clearly has the necessary speed and lift when he drives in order to be himself.
With an extra day of rest, he'll gather himself and return to the strong form that he showed previously this series.
Adjustments
Memphis has already been great about benching Steven Adams for more versatile defenders who can hang with Karl-Anthony Towns on the perimeter and for more versatile scorers who can do more threatening things in pick-and-roll scenarios.
Adams' absence allows other guys to open up the lane with more effective rolling to the basket and with floaters.
By forcing the defense to account for their scoring ability at the rim, Minnesota is less able to wall-up Morant behind the arc.
With the Timberwolves' defensive energy less concentrated along the perimeter, Morant is more able to get going downhill
In terms of further adjustments, I think that playing Jaren Jackson Jr. more would be useful.
With him on the floor, Minnesota's field goal percentage drops dramatically.
But he hasn't played much due to foul trouble.
This regular season, though, was his best in terms of avoiding fouls.
So, especially with a nicer whistle, he'll be on the court more.
Coach Jenkins has been great about making productive adjustments, so he will surely perceive the need to employ Jackson more.
Parlay Verdict
Expect Miami to overwhelm the limited Hawks on both ends of the court while Memphis improves on offense and defense to win by a significant margin.
Best Bet: Heat -7 at -115 & Grizzlies -6 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at FTX Arena in Miami
Stopping Trae Young
Last year, Atlanta relied primarily on its star point guard Trae Young in order to advance as far into the playoffs as it did.
So far this series, though, it has become clear that Young's ability to help his team is limited.
In terms of stats, he is mustering 16.5 points per game, has as many turnovers (24) as assists, is converting 35 percent of his field goals and 21 percent of his three-pointers.
The Heat are leading this series 3-1 primarily because they are stopping Atlanta's best offensive player.
Arguably the most important question for tonight's game is: will the Heat continue to succeed in their endeavor to limit Young's productivity?
Why and How
I think that the Heat will continue limiting Young because they have the personnel on defense to do so.
Miami is a unique team given the sheer number of strong defenders on its roster. This number explains why only two teams are allowing fewer points per game than the Heat and it explains why the Heat are so strong on defense in this series.
Heat defenders are taking away the spaces that Young relies on in order to be dangerous on offense.
By taking away these spaces, they keep Young from attacking downhill.
Characteristically, Young loves to attack the basket at propitious angles which he uses to do a variety of things like attempt floaters or lobs, pass to a teammate, and so on.
But he can't do any of these things when he can't get these angles via the dribble-drive in the first place.
Instead, Young is being forced to jack up a lot of shots.
Various Heat defenders are teaming up in order to make Young uncomfortable in these ways.
Guys like physical veteran PJ Tucker and others show the breadth of quality in Miami's personnel on defense.
Jimmy Butler
Whereas Atlanta's best offensive player is struggling, Miami's is not.
He is averaging 30.5 points per game on 20.3 field goal attempts.
He's converting 44.3 percent of his three-point attempts and amassing 8.5 free throws, 7.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.8 steals per game.
People refuse to accord Jimmy Butler superstar status and I'm not here to debate semantics.
The point is that he gives Miami a consistent source of productivity on offense that refuses the common perception of Miami as a team that, like the 2004 Pistons, scores primarily by committee.
Depth
Miami also enjoys way more sources of productivity on offense than Atlanta.
Guys like Max Strus and, his prior long-term health issues notwithstanding, Victor Oladipo are effective off the bench.
Strus is a good shooter -- he's shooting 41 percent from deep this season -- while Oladipo brings good chemistry at point guard where he finally gives the Heat more depth at the position.
The ability of even reserve guys to add to Miami's offense easily gives it the firepower to outpace the Young-led Hawks.
Defense
Belaboring Miami's offensive success is analytically valuable because defense is Miami's calling card.
Ranking third at limiting opposing points per game, the Heat have one of the NBA's strongest defenses.
Their scheming is clearly excellent, which is why Young is struggling, and everything else that they do gives their offense a larger margin of error in terms of scoring enough points to cover the spread.
Atlanta does not have nearly the same level of quality on defense, which is why Miami's top scorer is able to thrive at will while even reserve Heat players add a lot to their team's scoring output.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis
Oddities
I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but isn't it odd that the teams leading 2-1 were all hurt massively by refereeing?
Memphis was certainly one of those teams in Game 4 as, despite being primarily a team that jacks up threes, Minnesota attempted 40 free throws to Memphis' 25.
I think that the Grizzlies are owed a generous whistle in tonight's game.
But the Timberwolves also needed some other very strange things in order to cover the spread in Game 4.
Backup point guard Jordan McLaughlin had the game of his life with 16 points.
This is a guy who shot under 32 percent from deep during the regular season. But in Game 4 he could hardly miss.
I hear some people claim that Desmond Bane's scoring output was similarly a fluke, but this claim ignores the frequency with which he scores over 20 points. Bane has been a hugely positive surprise.
Conversely, Memphis point guard Ja Morant struggled, mustering all of 11 points.
He clearly has the necessary speed and lift when he drives in order to be himself.
With an extra day of rest, he'll gather himself and return to the strong form that he showed previously this series.
Adjustments
Memphis has already been great about benching Steven Adams for more versatile defenders who can hang with Karl-Anthony Towns on the perimeter and for more versatile scorers who can do more threatening things in pick-and-roll scenarios.
Adams' absence allows other guys to open up the lane with more effective rolling to the basket and with floaters.
By forcing the defense to account for their scoring ability at the rim, Minnesota is less able to wall-up Morant behind the arc.
With the Timberwolves' defensive energy less concentrated along the perimeter, Morant is more able to get going downhill
In terms of further adjustments, I think that playing Jaren Jackson Jr. more would be useful.
With him on the floor, Minnesota's field goal percentage drops dramatically.
But he hasn't played much due to foul trouble.
This regular season, though, was his best in terms of avoiding fouls.
So, especially with a nicer whistle, he'll be on the court more.
Coach Jenkins has been great about making productive adjustments, so he will surely perceive the need to employ Jackson more.
Parlay Verdict
Expect Miami to overwhelm the limited Hawks on both ends of the court while Memphis improves on offense and defense to win by a significant margin.
Best Bet: Heat -7 at -115 & Grizzlies -6 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
