Today's Plays Include a (+264) NBA Playoffs Parlay
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at FTX Arena in Miami
Change or Continuity
The biggest question in Game 2 is, obviously, whether we will see a repeat of Game 1.
It is easy to expect continuity because expectations of continuity are strengthened simply by recalling what we saw in Game 1 whereas expectations of change involve a stronger use of imagination.
But just because we worry about it being too easy to expect the same thing to happen doesn't mean that we should expect variety.
Half-Court Offense
I think that Miami will succeed again offensively because there is a continuity in play that ties Miami's Game 1 success with its success against Atlanta during the regular season.
Out of all postseason teams, Atlanta was the team whose half-court defense Miami succeeded most against. This success is measured by efficiency (points per possession).
Atlanta does not have the tools to resist the Heat's half-court offense because the Heat will usually have more trouble against lengthy teams who switch.
The Hawks, however, are not going to be such a team.
One might try to counter this line of reasoning by pointing to Miami's superb three-point percentage (47.4).
But recall that, during the regular season, Miami boasted the NBA's top three-point percentage.
The Heat had to face strong perimeter defenses which limited their potential to succeed from deep.
Atlanta, though, does not defend the three well. In the regular season, it allowed the ninth-highest rate of open three-point attempts.
So, Miami will succeed again from deep.
Superb Defense
Defense is the known commodity of this Heat team.
They bothered Trae Young to no end, swarming to take away his preferred spaces, and doing other things that drained the shot clock such that Young often had little time just to get a shot up.
At the end of the day, Atlanta's superstar mustered eight points and six turnovers.
During the regular season, the Heat allowed the second-fewest points against the pick-and-roll ball-handler play type.
Their success, therefore, in Game 1 against the Hawks' favored ball-screen game should come as no surprise.
We can only expect continuity in the success of Miami's ball-screen defense because we can point to a large data sample that suggests the same conclusion.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 8:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis
Oddities
Minnesota pulled off the Game 1 upset.
But some things favored the Timberwolves that surely won't again.
For starters, they got to play on April 12 when they beat the Clippers in the play-in tournament.
Conversely, Memphis had not played since April 10. They had a long layoff similar to when they lost to Minnesota after the All-Star Break.
It was also odd that Memphis shot 7 of 27 from deep, conceded 19 second-chance points, and struggled on the glass.
Statistically speaking, the Grizzlies are one of the best rebounding squads.
One cannot expect them to let the Timberwolves succeed again on the glass.
Transition
Defensive rebounds will help Memphis' transition game.
Led by speedster Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are well-known for attacking on the run. They are one of the best teams in transition.
They will score plenty of quick points against a Minnesota defense that, in the regular season, allows the third-most points in transition per game.
Brandon Clarke
There are plenty of adjustments that Memphis can make in Game 2.
One thing that I would like to see is Brandon Clarke having more minutes in place of Steven Adams.
Clarke can punish Minnesota's high-wall ball-screen defense because he is more mobile than Adams.
Much more so than Adams, Clarke can execute a short roll on the pick-and-roll or attempt floaters.
By compelling Minnesota's defense to be more attentive towards its own basket -- backdoors would also help and more Memphis three-point success accomplishes the same end -- then Morant will have more space to go downhill from the perimeter, which is what he loves to do as a speedy attacker.
I also like Clarke on defense since he can do more than Adams did one-on-one against Towns.
A double-team could also level Towns with the sort of physicality that characteristically bothers him, which is partly why some find him soft.
The Verdict
Expect Miami to repeat its Game 1 success while Memphis makes adjustments to race past Minnesota in Game 2.
Best Bet: Parlay Heat -7 at -110 & Grizzlies -7 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at FTX Arena in Miami
Change or Continuity
The biggest question in Game 2 is, obviously, whether we will see a repeat of Game 1.
It is easy to expect continuity because expectations of continuity are strengthened simply by recalling what we saw in Game 1 whereas expectations of change involve a stronger use of imagination.
But just because we worry about it being too easy to expect the same thing to happen doesn't mean that we should expect variety.
Half-Court Offense
I think that Miami will succeed again offensively because there is a continuity in play that ties Miami's Game 1 success with its success against Atlanta during the regular season.
Out of all postseason teams, Atlanta was the team whose half-court defense Miami succeeded most against. This success is measured by efficiency (points per possession).
Atlanta does not have the tools to resist the Heat's half-court offense because the Heat will usually have more trouble against lengthy teams who switch.
The Hawks, however, are not going to be such a team.
One might try to counter this line of reasoning by pointing to Miami's superb three-point percentage (47.4).
But recall that, during the regular season, Miami boasted the NBA's top three-point percentage.
The Heat had to face strong perimeter defenses which limited their potential to succeed from deep.
Atlanta, though, does not defend the three well. In the regular season, it allowed the ninth-highest rate of open three-point attempts.
So, Miami will succeed again from deep.
Superb Defense
Defense is the known commodity of this Heat team.
They bothered Trae Young to no end, swarming to take away his preferred spaces, and doing other things that drained the shot clock such that Young often had little time just to get a shot up.
At the end of the day, Atlanta's superstar mustered eight points and six turnovers.
During the regular season, the Heat allowed the second-fewest points against the pick-and-roll ball-handler play type.
Their success, therefore, in Game 1 against the Hawks' favored ball-screen game should come as no surprise.
We can only expect continuity in the success of Miami's ball-screen defense because we can point to a large data sample that suggests the same conclusion.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 8:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis
Oddities
Minnesota pulled off the Game 1 upset.
But some things favored the Timberwolves that surely won't again.
For starters, they got to play on April 12 when they beat the Clippers in the play-in tournament.
Conversely, Memphis had not played since April 10. They had a long layoff similar to when they lost to Minnesota after the All-Star Break.
It was also odd that Memphis shot 7 of 27 from deep, conceded 19 second-chance points, and struggled on the glass.
Statistically speaking, the Grizzlies are one of the best rebounding squads.
One cannot expect them to let the Timberwolves succeed again on the glass.
Transition
Defensive rebounds will help Memphis' transition game.
Led by speedster Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are well-known for attacking on the run. They are one of the best teams in transition.
They will score plenty of quick points against a Minnesota defense that, in the regular season, allows the third-most points in transition per game.
Brandon Clarke
There are plenty of adjustments that Memphis can make in Game 2.
One thing that I would like to see is Brandon Clarke having more minutes in place of Steven Adams.
Clarke can punish Minnesota's high-wall ball-screen defense because he is more mobile than Adams.
Much more so than Adams, Clarke can execute a short roll on the pick-and-roll or attempt floaters.
By compelling Minnesota's defense to be more attentive towards its own basket -- backdoors would also help and more Memphis three-point success accomplishes the same end -- then Morant will have more space to go downhill from the perimeter, which is what he loves to do as a speedy attacker.
I also like Clarke on defense since he can do more than Adams did one-on-one against Towns.
A double-team could also level Towns with the sort of physicality that characteristically bothers him, which is partly why some find him soft.
The Verdict
Expect Miami to repeat its Game 1 success while Memphis makes adjustments to race past Minnesota in Game 2.
Best Bet: Parlay Heat -7 at -110 & Grizzlies -7 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
