NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Game 1 Struggles
I am excited that Milwaukee was able to inch past Brooklyn in the last round because now I can fade Milwaukee in Game 1 of a new series.
Game 1 struggles have formed a perpetual reality for Milwaukee in the playoffs in recent years.
Last year, the Bucks lost to the 8 seed, Orlando, in Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs.
In the Semifinals of last year's playoffs, they lost Game 1 to Miami by 11 points even though the game was in Milwaukee.
This year, Milwaukee did beat Miami in Game 1 of the series. But that game went into overtime and the Bucks only won by two points.
It turned out, in that series, which the Bucks swept, that Milwaukee was the vastly superior team.
So it is evident that they played their worst basketball of the series in Game 1 of that series. They also failed to cover the spread in Game 1.
For the second round, they faced the Nets. The Bucks lost Game 1 of that series by eight points, again failing to cover the spread.
Atlanta In Game 1
The only conceivable counter to my above point -- about expecting Milwaukee to struggle in Game 1 -- would be the following: Maybe Atlanta struggles in Game 1? If Atlanta tends to start a series off slowly, then perhaps Atlanta's Game 1 struggles would cancel out Milwaukee's?
But this isn't the case. Actually, the Hawks have performed excellently in Game 1.
In Game 1 in the first round, they upset the Knicks on the road. In Game 1 in the second round, they upset Philadelphia on the road.
Because the odds don't account for this trend, the Hawks are heavily dogged for tonight's game.
We can be greedy and take the money-line in order to completely respect the trend. We can also play it safer and take the free points. We can also just risk slightly less on the Hawk moneyline and still earn a nice payout.
Milwaukee's Ball-Screen Defense
Ball-screen defense is a crucial factor for Milwaukee's chances in this series.
Against Atlanta, especially, one has to be well-prepared to defend ball screens because Atlanta has run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with more frequency than any team in this season's playoffs.
I don't like the Buck defense because the Bucks are known for their drop coverage principles.
Drop coverage has given the Buck defense a plethora of problems that have compelled Coach Budenholzer to try to make adjustments during the regular season.
The key word is "try." The Bucks have tried more aggressive ball-screen coverage styles and they've tried to switch and do other things besides the drop coverage. But these attempted adjustments only created more problems for the defense.
Now, Milwaukee's defense has lucked out so far. The Heat offense turned out to be abysmal and therefore a significant reason why the Heat were non-competitve throughout that series.
While Brooklyn has a much stronger offense, the Nets ran the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler action with the third-lowest frequency of any playoff team this season.
Conversely, the Hawks have run this play type with close to twice as high frequency.
With star Trae Young at point guard, the Hawks are a potent force in the ball-screen game.
Young will use his speed to punish defenders for guarding him too closely.
If defenders back off of him, he will pull up for a shot.
He also likes to target teammates for a lob at the basket.
In the first half of Game 1 against the 76ers, Atlanta scored 74 points largely because of Philadelphia's awful ball-screen coverage scheme.
In that first half, the 76ers employed drop coverage. Because the Bucks are most comfortable employing drop coverage, I foresee strong success for the Hawk offense.
Hawk Defense vs. Buck Offense
Out of any team left in these playoffs, Milwaukee owns the worst offensive rating.
The Bucks struggle to sustain offense over four quarters as they tend to lapse into a three-point shooting contest or into heavy iso ball.
They rely heavily on Giannis inside. But, among playoff teams this season, Atlanta has done the second-best job of limiting opposing field goal efficiency at the basket, despite the fact that they had to contend with Philadelphia and star center Joel Embiid last round.
This season, Clint Capela has proved to be a significant addition to the Hawk defense with his ability to impact opposing shot attempts around the basket.
The Verdict
With the Game 1 trend and Atlanta's match-up advantages against Milwaukee's drop coverage and the Bucks' reliance in Giannis, the Hawks will have Milwaukee on upset alert.
Because the "under" is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four games overall, 5-1-1 in Milwaukee's last seven overall, and 6-1 in Atlanta's last seven as the road underdog, I also like the "under."
For the above reasons, parlay the Hawks ATS with the "under."
Feel free to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Best Bet: Parlay Hawks +7 at -105 & Under 226.5 at -111 at +271 odds with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Game 1 Struggles
I am excited that Milwaukee was able to inch past Brooklyn in the last round because now I can fade Milwaukee in Game 1 of a new series.
Game 1 struggles have formed a perpetual reality for Milwaukee in the playoffs in recent years.
Last year, the Bucks lost to the 8 seed, Orlando, in Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs.
In the Semifinals of last year's playoffs, they lost Game 1 to Miami by 11 points even though the game was in Milwaukee.
This year, Milwaukee did beat Miami in Game 1 of the series. But that game went into overtime and the Bucks only won by two points.
It turned out, in that series, which the Bucks swept, that Milwaukee was the vastly superior team.
So it is evident that they played their worst basketball of the series in Game 1 of that series. They also failed to cover the spread in Game 1.
For the second round, they faced the Nets. The Bucks lost Game 1 of that series by eight points, again failing to cover the spread.
Atlanta In Game 1
The only conceivable counter to my above point -- about expecting Milwaukee to struggle in Game 1 -- would be the following: Maybe Atlanta struggles in Game 1? If Atlanta tends to start a series off slowly, then perhaps Atlanta's Game 1 struggles would cancel out Milwaukee's?
But this isn't the case. Actually, the Hawks have performed excellently in Game 1.
In Game 1 in the first round, they upset the Knicks on the road. In Game 1 in the second round, they upset Philadelphia on the road.
Because the odds don't account for this trend, the Hawks are heavily dogged for tonight's game.
We can be greedy and take the money-line in order to completely respect the trend. We can also play it safer and take the free points. We can also just risk slightly less on the Hawk moneyline and still earn a nice payout.
Milwaukee's Ball-Screen Defense
Ball-screen defense is a crucial factor for Milwaukee's chances in this series.
Against Atlanta, especially, one has to be well-prepared to defend ball screens because Atlanta has run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with more frequency than any team in this season's playoffs.
I don't like the Buck defense because the Bucks are known for their drop coverage principles.
Drop coverage has given the Buck defense a plethora of problems that have compelled Coach Budenholzer to try to make adjustments during the regular season.
The key word is "try." The Bucks have tried more aggressive ball-screen coverage styles and they've tried to switch and do other things besides the drop coverage. But these attempted adjustments only created more problems for the defense.
Now, Milwaukee's defense has lucked out so far. The Heat offense turned out to be abysmal and therefore a significant reason why the Heat were non-competitve throughout that series.
While Brooklyn has a much stronger offense, the Nets ran the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler action with the third-lowest frequency of any playoff team this season.
Conversely, the Hawks have run this play type with close to twice as high frequency.
With star Trae Young at point guard, the Hawks are a potent force in the ball-screen game.
Young will use his speed to punish defenders for guarding him too closely.
If defenders back off of him, he will pull up for a shot.
He also likes to target teammates for a lob at the basket.
In the first half of Game 1 against the 76ers, Atlanta scored 74 points largely because of Philadelphia's awful ball-screen coverage scheme.
In that first half, the 76ers employed drop coverage. Because the Bucks are most comfortable employing drop coverage, I foresee strong success for the Hawk offense.
Hawk Defense vs. Buck Offense
Out of any team left in these playoffs, Milwaukee owns the worst offensive rating.
The Bucks struggle to sustain offense over four quarters as they tend to lapse into a three-point shooting contest or into heavy iso ball.
They rely heavily on Giannis inside. But, among playoff teams this season, Atlanta has done the second-best job of limiting opposing field goal efficiency at the basket, despite the fact that they had to contend with Philadelphia and star center Joel Embiid last round.
This season, Clint Capela has proved to be a significant addition to the Hawk defense with his ability to impact opposing shot attempts around the basket.
The Verdict
With the Game 1 trend and Atlanta's match-up advantages against Milwaukee's drop coverage and the Bucks' reliance in Giannis, the Hawks will have Milwaukee on upset alert.
Because the "under" is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four games overall, 5-1-1 in Milwaukee's last seven overall, and 6-1 in Atlanta's last seven as the road underdog, I also like the "under."
For the above reasons, parlay the Hawks ATS with the "under."
Feel free to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Best Bet: Parlay Hawks +7 at -105 & Under 226.5 at -111 at +271 odds with BetOnline
