NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, June 25, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Milwaukee's Adjustments
I am not just basing my plays tonight on specific parts of Game 1 that I will discuss in a moment. Instead, there is a pattern to observe.
Atlanta's last series against Philadelphia played out similarly. The 76ers started out with drop coverage -- which is what the Bucks employed a lot of in Game 1 -- and were shredded in their upset defeat.
They then put Ben Simmons on Trae. Simmons is a well-reputed defender, with accolades to his name for playing strong defense, who also possesses a lot of length.
This is exactly what Milwaukee has in the form of perennial MVP Candidate and perennial Defensive Player of the Year finalist Giannis, who was also Defensive Player of the Year last season.
Giannis is 6-11 and has 10 inches on Trae. In addition to his defensive skill set in general, he'll use his length to disrupt Giannis.
In Game 1, he disrupted Trae when he was switched onto him.
I have two specific possessions in mind, late in Game 1, when Giannis was tasked with guarding Trae by himself.
By using his length, Giannis deterred Trae from driving inside. Instead, he compelled Trae to settle for two long and improbable three-point attempts that not only bricked but led to a basket going the other way -- because long three-point attempts often lend themselves to transition opportunities for the opposing team.
And transition play is a frequent and deadly form of attack for the Buck offense.
Stepping Up
In order to have Giannis switch onto Trae, Milwaukee will go small by placing Giannis at the center position instead of Brook Lopez, who is a good rim protector and a valuable floor-spacer with his shooting on the other end, but is too slow to handle Trae.
When the Bucks go small, they can deviate from their characteristic but perpetually problematic drop coverage and, instead, switch.
Other guys will be switched onto Trae besides Giannis.
I still like Jrue Holiday as a defender and believe that he will bounce back with vengeance for Game 2.
Holiday was just named to his second career NBA All-Defense First Team. He is well-known as a lockdown defender who will use his length at 6-3 to contest shot attempts from opposing guards at the basket.
With his speed and his ability to recover, he can trouble Young. He can also be much more physical with the smaller, slender Young.
Physicality was more of a feature of the Buck defense in the second half and we also saw this physicality in other Buck defenders.
With the Bucks humbled and absolutely needing a win here at home to even the series, expect more urgency that will manifest itself in physicality.
With multiple solid defenders like Giannis and Jrue, the Bucks can throw different, high-quality looks at Trae.
Hampered Offense
Giannis and Jrue will both work harder on defense in order to limit Trae, after Trae embarrassed the Buck defense by scoring 48 points.
Their defensive workload will take away from their offensive potency.
But I don't like the Buck offense also because it lacks depth in the scoring department.
Time and time again, Milwaukee relies too heavily on Giannis, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton.
Jrue and Giannis were, in Game 1, for example, the only two Milwaukee players to exceed 15 points.
While Milwaukee's offense is hampered by its lack of depth and the energy that its defenders have to devote to limiting Trae's offense, Atlanta's offense is likewise hampered.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is the team's third-leading scorer, but continues to not look right as a result of his knee. In Game 1, he played way fewer minutes than normal and he's again listed as 'questionable' for Game 2.
The Verdict
I like what Milwaukee -- with guys like Giannis and Jrue -- has to offer to limit Trae Young and his favored ball-screen attack.
I also think the Buck offense lacks sufficient support, although it will threaten more offensively with its stars than the limited Trae.
With their backs against the wall, this is a great spot to expect Milwaukee to pull all the stops to even the series and avoid going down 0-2 after two home games. The Bucks cannot afford to lose tonight.
Because this is a parlay, we can be conservative and take Milwaukee on the money-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks ML at -220 & Under 226 at -110 at +178 with Bovada
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, June 25, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Milwaukee's Adjustments
I am not just basing my plays tonight on specific parts of Game 1 that I will discuss in a moment. Instead, there is a pattern to observe.
Atlanta's last series against Philadelphia played out similarly. The 76ers started out with drop coverage -- which is what the Bucks employed a lot of in Game 1 -- and were shredded in their upset defeat.
They then put Ben Simmons on Trae. Simmons is a well-reputed defender, with accolades to his name for playing strong defense, who also possesses a lot of length.
This is exactly what Milwaukee has in the form of perennial MVP Candidate and perennial Defensive Player of the Year finalist Giannis, who was also Defensive Player of the Year last season.
Giannis is 6-11 and has 10 inches on Trae. In addition to his defensive skill set in general, he'll use his length to disrupt Giannis.
In Game 1, he disrupted Trae when he was switched onto him.
I have two specific possessions in mind, late in Game 1, when Giannis was tasked with guarding Trae by himself.
By using his length, Giannis deterred Trae from driving inside. Instead, he compelled Trae to settle for two long and improbable three-point attempts that not only bricked but led to a basket going the other way -- because long three-point attempts often lend themselves to transition opportunities for the opposing team.
And transition play is a frequent and deadly form of attack for the Buck offense.
Stepping Up
In order to have Giannis switch onto Trae, Milwaukee will go small by placing Giannis at the center position instead of Brook Lopez, who is a good rim protector and a valuable floor-spacer with his shooting on the other end, but is too slow to handle Trae.
When the Bucks go small, they can deviate from their characteristic but perpetually problematic drop coverage and, instead, switch.
Other guys will be switched onto Trae besides Giannis.
I still like Jrue Holiday as a defender and believe that he will bounce back with vengeance for Game 2.
Holiday was just named to his second career NBA All-Defense First Team. He is well-known as a lockdown defender who will use his length at 6-3 to contest shot attempts from opposing guards at the basket.
With his speed and his ability to recover, he can trouble Young. He can also be much more physical with the smaller, slender Young.
Physicality was more of a feature of the Buck defense in the second half and we also saw this physicality in other Buck defenders.
With the Bucks humbled and absolutely needing a win here at home to even the series, expect more urgency that will manifest itself in physicality.
With multiple solid defenders like Giannis and Jrue, the Bucks can throw different, high-quality looks at Trae.
Hampered Offense
Giannis and Jrue will both work harder on defense in order to limit Trae, after Trae embarrassed the Buck defense by scoring 48 points.
Their defensive workload will take away from their offensive potency.
But I don't like the Buck offense also because it lacks depth in the scoring department.
Time and time again, Milwaukee relies too heavily on Giannis, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton.
Jrue and Giannis were, in Game 1, for example, the only two Milwaukee players to exceed 15 points.
While Milwaukee's offense is hampered by its lack of depth and the energy that its defenders have to devote to limiting Trae's offense, Atlanta's offense is likewise hampered.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is the team's third-leading scorer, but continues to not look right as a result of his knee. In Game 1, he played way fewer minutes than normal and he's again listed as 'questionable' for Game 2.
The Verdict
I like what Milwaukee -- with guys like Giannis and Jrue -- has to offer to limit Trae Young and his favored ball-screen attack.
I also think the Buck offense lacks sufficient support, although it will threaten more offensively with its stars than the limited Trae.
With their backs against the wall, this is a great spot to expect Milwaukee to pull all the stops to even the series and avoid going down 0-2 after two home games. The Bucks cannot afford to lose tonight.
Because this is a parlay, we can be conservative and take Milwaukee on the money-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks ML at -220 & Under 226 at -110 at +178 with Bovada
