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Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii vs. ASU

bjorks

Secretary of Fondy Fanclub
I'm back for a single post, but will do my best to answer questions. My lock of the bowl season is Hawaii -7 (Bodog on the 20th) over ASU. I've got some information that hopefully will take us to the bank.

We all know about Hawaii's high powered offense and to be quite frank, they're going to be able to score points on anybody in the nation. ASU's defensive statistics are a bit misleading. Despite being 2nd in the PAC-10 in total defense (just under 300 yards/gm) their secondary is their weakness regardless of what the stats say (3rd 181yds/gm). This team has the tendency to give up the big play through the air. Before lines came out I fully expected Hawaii to be a 2 TD favorite.

ASU has never been known as a strong defensive team and what has equalled this out in the past is Koetter's offense and the passing attack behind Andrew Walter and Sam Keller and even Rudy Carpenter via last season. This season the offense is a mess. ASU has turned into a running team (2nd PAC-10) as the passing game has fallen to 6th and Carpenter is 5th in the conference averaging 194yds/gm with 21 TD's (3rd) and 14 INT's (1st). Carpenter has struggled with confidence all year and has not shown the ability to lead ASU back when down, but has done an admirable job with inconsistant receivers.

What always worries me a bit around Bowl season is lame duck coaches. Does the team rally around the coach one last time and play above their heads or do they pack in? New coach Dennis Erickson will/has already made his pressence felt around Tempe and the attitude around the team is not real high. Numerous players (including some starters) have already been told a) they aren't making the trip, b) they will not be on the team next year due to rules, c) they need to look elsewhere.

Dennis Erickson was met leaving his press conference by ASU fans who had snuck up to the conference with a "Go Home Erickson" sign and "Erickson = Corrupt" signs so the the fans aren't exactly warming up to Erickson either. Koetter has basically worked with 1st team offense and defensive teams and key reserves during the break focusing on only trying to win one last game. There has been zero player development for the younger guys who have basically been ignored since the end of the season, adding to the already volatile atmosphere. To put it simply, there are a LOT of unhappy campers in Tempe.

Despite all this the line keeps dropping with ASU +7 (-115) on the Dog and +6.5 and 73.5 on the book. I don't understand this, but Vegas is obviously banking on public perception of the ASU and Dirk Koetter name, which is the name of the game. This is however a very average to bellow average PAC-10 football team that has grossly underperformed all year with a very bad secondary going up against maybe the greatest passing attack ever created. Hmmmm....

ASU has no ability to rally or comeback when behind against teams...
ASU has a very poor passing attack and will rely heavily on the run game...
ASU has an average to slightly above average defense but a bad secondary with very little depth...
ASU will be in nickle and dime packages most of the game keeping a strength of theirs (LB's) on the bench...
ASU has a lame duck coach that has somewhat said to hell with some of the players...(Shoot, the band isn't even making the trip!!)
ASU has a coach coming in that is cleaning house, and when I say cleaning house, there will be a lot of changes in Tempe in the next year...You talk about distractions and lack of motivation, will ASU is the poster child.

This is getting too long and I could go on, but unless Hawaii has lost their touch this game is going to be ugly if you're an ASU fan. In what has been a turd of a season, ASU WILL LAY THE BIGGEST TURD Christmas Eve. Stick a fork in Sparky, their done!

Hawaii 54
ASU 23

My biggest play of the year and probably only play of the bowl season...10 dimes.

Good luck to all. I'm not on much, but will do my best to answer questions/comments/criticisms.
 
No doubt..I personally think ASU is a mess right now and the defense is weaker than Oregon State's..they don't make very many big plays and the secondary stats are way overrated...this team is also a turnover machine, no discipline.
 
Bjorks..had a feeling you would go with Bows here..good to see.

Hopefully its just a shave like last years independance bowl..hehe

When that line opened 10...and started dropping quickly I was hoping to get a 7...and it stuck at 8...but Dr Bob bumped it down here i wanted it..and played it relatively big...and now that its lower will be playing it even bigger.

BOL.
 
Horses,

In all honesty I do. First, that line last year against Rutgers opened at a 13. It closed at an 8. I am not saying that right there precipated my thoughts but it def got me thinking. I grabbed that game at a 10 I believe and it was my biggest bowl win outside of UT ats/ml.

Now, Rutgers jumped out 17-7 if I remember correctly and ASU got going. In fact they jumped in front of the spread with a few minutes left. The last Rutgers drive resulted in a TD and backdoor. This wasn't just a prevent defense touchdown. Watch some tape of last years game and you'll understand exactly.

I would say I am 90 percent sure that game was 'fishy'

I am 100% sure the side was shaved and total middled in last years So Miss-Arky St Bowl game. Smaller schools in less dramatic bowls....watch for these angles.

Anyone can be successful in bowl games looking for teams without motivation and having found a team or two throughout the season that wasn't always kosher if you know what I am saying.

GL
 
This game has blowout written all over it. Arizona St doesnt even have a coach.. June Jones loves playing bcs schools..
 
BAR, I do remember that Rutgers march for the spread clinching backdoor cover after ASU went ahead of the spread for the first time with about 4 or 5 minutes to go. Can't remember specifics about the drive (those brain cells have long since been torched!) but I do seem to remember Rutgers hitting a huge pass over the middle that got them down into the red zone.

Appreciate the thoughts; I am with you...it's hard to imagine that there are NOT a few low level games that might get shaved each year.
 
What bowl game was it last year that the guy missed the pat.. and everyone got fucked?
 
Brian,

Both those were shady. I admit I lost the first one. That was Yag as hell.

The other game..Arky and So Miss.

Total opened 49...closed 51. Swear to god in midle of third qtr I believe there was an unintentional/intentional safety...only way there was a chance for game to land on 50.

Also, Almond just started throwing ball out of bounds late up 31-19. They were driving and he was puposely throwing out of bounds. No runs, no completions...bullshit. It was a great feeling being on right side of that game
 
Nice little ;) win for yas.

Glad it hit easy for us.

Congrats.

Appreciate the few tidbits this season..made me few stronger about 3 games...and the two strongest hit and the other should have..

Good stuff
 
BAR - Koetter shaved last year and I don't know what to say about the punt with 3 minutes to go last night. The birdies around ASU were saying Koetter laid a big one on Hawaii and was splitting it with the assistants that didn't get retained by Erickson. Most people were laughing about it, but I'm not so sure now...
 
Honestly man...with his defection..and last years BS....and Hawaii at home..I loved game..then this post made me posistive I had the winner..

Shady mofo's everywhere
 
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