Happy New Year's CTG & lurkers!!!!!

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Unfortunately for myself I managed to get home at 7 AM and did not really wakeup till about 1 . Tried getting to my laptop a few times in the brief instinces I woke up before 1 but that it was just to momunetal a task. So its unforunate cause I was unable to play any of the early games and naturally I leaned Tenny , Mizzou ( both I would have played), Virginia , Over Michigan( which since I was up had decided to wait till halftime). Then as I turned my computer on at 1 exactly got everything going and keyed up to play Michigan +10.5 it went off just as I hit submit! Moral of this story? Some shit never changes!! Could be looking at a 5-0 start! Well I actually played Over 31 2nd H @ Mizzou and well ARK decided to pass on 4th and 1 with one of the best running games in the country..go figure...run or pass the clock stops! game ends basically with the TOD on the 4 yd line! Then switch to CBB thought about play Cincy 1st H +7.5 but decided to just play UND 61 1st H instead...Cincy has the lead 30-26 @ half! At least I was smart to realize with Cronin installing Pitino's system it was two carbon copy teams playing eachother with a disparity in talent but hustle and execution would be the difference. That said I expect the Ville to wake up in the 2nd H but in sticking with the theme of the day I wil pass on it. Actually I like it but dont like to go against my initial leans it never works out well.

Okay enough whining ! I know my fellow CTGers can relate ! You always want to start the New Year off on the right foot and damn bewteen Clemson losing in OT to this....as Sir Charles Barkley would say that just TERRIBLE , TERRIBLE ,TERRIBLE!!!!!!


Okay CTG have a healthy and Happy New Year!!!

Oh yeah we have football still....

5PM Illinois @ USC - The Rose Bowl

Suprised that the media outlets have portayed Illinois as a team with no shot here since they pulled off the Ohio State upset I expected different. Wish that wasnt the case. So we have to say huge edge to USC playing at "home" here...and Ill has the motivation of being the biggest dog of the bowl season...

However I think Illinois is another team that can compete vs the better teams but rarely beat them. Naturally they did win @ Ohio State but really one would imagine after thumping Wisky and winning @ Penn State with the game @ Michigan ahead they were caught a bit off guard. The other day I was saying that for the most part I dont believe in lookahead spots in pro sports but in the college ranks I do cause we are dealing with kids still. Its part of human nature. So I going to grade that win as fluky cause Ohio State was 10-0 at the time and thinking there were great and had Michigan on deck...

I look at Illini at home and see 4 tough games vs Missouri , Wisky , Penn State and Michigan. I would say the two best teams were the ones they lost to in close fashion. They edged out both Penn State and Wisky. I know the Missouri final was close and that 100 yd fumble recovery for a TD changed the game but they were down 37-13 late 3rd q at home but it was the opener ( kudoes for the comeback but did Mizzou have a mental letdown up big??). Against Michigan they jumped out to an early lead but did not next to nothing at home on offense. Thats my big concern what did they do vs solid defenses minus the Ohio State game. Granted I believe Juice was hurt in the opener and played sparingly from what I recall. While Illinois improved throughout the season I think Missouri really grew as evidenced by there beatdown of Arkansas today. On the road they played all terrible teams like Syracuse , Minnesota , Indiana ( we saw how bad they were), Iowa who they lost to. Plus they got Ball State and Western Illinois at home. Bottomline 3-3 in there 6 toughest games.

With USC your are somewhat concerned with motivation. However most would agree that USC resembles a pro team more then any other program. Factor in its the Rose Bowl and motivation seems apparent. A flukish loss vs Stanford and injuries played a large role in USC being here. They lost a close game @ Oregon with Booty OUT and played sloppy vs Stanford continually giving the Cardinal opps to steal the game. Funny how in some ways both teams are here based on 1 fluke win. Without Ohio State the Illini probably arent here w/o the Stanford game its probably Ohio State and a National Championship.

Teams in the SEC and PAC 10( Big 12) just have very few breathing opportunities. You have bowl team Oregon , Oregon State , Cal , UCLA , ASU and decent programs @ Zona , Wash , etc. Granted they managed to get some of those teams late when the had issues but USC dealt with injury concerns all year. We know how good the defense is when you look atthe Oregon boxscore Dixon 157 yds passing , Stewart 4 YPC , and only 336 yds of total offense for the Ducks. Then @ ASU 259 yds total offense while USC had over 500 basically in 3 quarters. They held Cal to 17 pts but Forssett did play well and they managed 399 yds of offense. Oregon State w/o Bernard 176 yds! Stnford loss 235yds vs 479 USC yds! Nebraska managed 2 late TDS to get to 31 in the final 5 minutes when the game was well in hand and did it thru the air. The Huskie game looks close then u see a Pick 6 in there and a TD with about 30 seconds left. Huskies total offense that day 170 yds!!

There defense is very stout with a reputation for slowing opposing running backs. Take Illini outputs vs 4 best defenses they faced 336 Penn St , 287 Iowa, 253 Michigan , 336 Ohio State and did manage 399 Wisky who they actually did beat up better then the final shows. ( Had 410 with most of them coming down 3 scores vs Mizzou).

USC has played ONLY 2 OVERS all season and has been 39 and 49 pts favs at times!!!!

Think Illini struggle to get 17 pts here more in the 13 or 14 range. Think Illini defense is solid and USC offense leaves points on the board. So ther in the 27-31 range...Lean UNDER 49 .....especially if USC has a nice lead at HALF....Zook vs Carroll??

Playing : USC -13 -120 if need be ( thinking bout the UND 49)

GL:cheers::prayer
 
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Good write up.. On the other side though and give Illinois a slight chance of SU win.... Interested in your take on Haw. game...Have some thoughts coming in a bit:cheers: tried not to clink the glasses too loud. LOL
 
Great as always man...glad to see you on it..absolutely love it.

Thanks BAR! Actually just as glad to know you like it as well. Good hit with Utah last night in the Association as well. Had trouble pulling the trigger on it cause it was 9 by tip but waited till half to hit it at -5.5 (-7.5 for the game)! Your where the push I needed!:cheers:
 
Good write up.. On the other side though and give Illinois a slight chance of SU win.... Interested in your take on Haw. game...Have some thoughts coming in a bit:cheers: tried not to clink the glasses too loud. LOL


Well I wish you luck TeeDub. From what I have seen in these Bowls most of these teams have stuck to the patterns they developed in the regular season and Illinois has not shown it can beat the big boyz on a regular basis. Just my opinion and Zook was booted from Florida can he outcoach Carroll and the USC staff? We have been great together when we agreed so I owuld have liked to seen you on USC. Granted its alot of points. I do think that if they played @ Ohio State again they would still be about 13 , 14 pt dogs. Being home for USC and thinking USC is better then Ohio State I feel the line makes sense but I could be wrong.

I am interested in my take of the Georgia/Hawaii game as well!! having ADD makes it real tough to look further ahead then I would like. Just getting to it now...hell I just turned the lights on for the first time today..:36_11_6:
 
8:30 Hawaii vs Georgia - Sugar Bowl , Louisana Superdome

Hawaii loses some of there value being on the mainland. However clearly I understand what this games means to the team , state and program. Still though the key component of making any play must have to do with value in the line.

You cannot deny Hawaii's weak schedule and the fact that they didnt play all that well in 3 road tilts. They needed OT to win @ LATech and SJST both middle of the pack WAC teams. They needed a late FG to beat an improving Nevada squad w/o Brennan. They faced and played well against Fresno but credit Fresno for 2nd H adjustments to get back in the game. At the end of the season they took down rival Boise State and followed up with a win vs medicore at best Pac 10 sqaud Wash. They played good but its not like they beat down Boise . I have to give them a pass for the slow start vs Wash due to the huge win vs Boise and the pressure of going undefeated. thats it everyone else they played was terrible. I agree with Brennan that no one has stopped them BUT they havent faced any defense worth a darn! This is an SEC defense which is nothing like they have seen before. Doesnt mean they cant do it but it does mean they MUST show they can do it!

I thin public perception has really taken the value on any Hawaii play. Remember that last year in the opener Hawaii did travel to play @ Bama. They didnt play that badly and lost by 8 points but were under the radar and catching 15 pts! Now granted Hawaii has improved as Brennan is more like a machine and the defense is not quite as pourous as back then. However the Georgia is MUCH better with a double running threat then Bama was. The undefeated season really makes it tough to get value on them. Perception always rules the day! They also played a solid Oregon State teamlate last year at home and lost 35-32 and the Beaver defense was not nearly as good last year as this but the offense was tough with Matt Moore. Going back even further and yes this Hawaii team is much better but what about the USC and Wisky games in 05-06.

In some ways its understandable why people are saying NUT what Fuck are you talking about last year and two years ago for? My point is Hawaii on offense is really IMO just a slightily better version of what it was the past 2 seasons. That offense alone could not beat better teams and there ppg vs good defenses suffered. Naturally some of those games had Chang as QB. I just dont see where Hawaii has shown to be able to play at the top level of CFB! This team has done nothing to show its made the jump to the next level. You cant fault them for there schedule but you can find weakness in the amount of effort needed to beat teams at a certain leve of quality. I may be mistaken but again competing and winning are entirely different discussions.

Georgia finished strong and won 6 straight. I thought very key was the fact that Georgia caught only 7 points @ Florida and managed to win SU. Stafford is not someone I filled with confidence watching him play but you have to think the way to attack here is on the ground. While I may sound foolish doesnt Troy run a spread attack ? If so I think Troy would be a very comparable team to Hawaii. Please do not take this a slight but If you followed Troy they played well vs some giants. The Florida game was Georgia turning point where they playd good football and till the end of the reg season. They beat a dangerous Troy team , Auburn , kentucky etc.....

Thinking Georgia and the Over cause Hawaii will score see a 13 or 14 pt loss....be back shortly......:cheers:
 
Hate to be Georgia DB's facing the Hawaii receivers on the turf.. 8 points is going to be handy I think. HG makes a good case for the under.. Still not totally decided.. GL

Did you look at Ill St tonight in CBB? Take a peek.:smiley_acbe:
 
No way I am taking road chalk just because they are shorthanded. You never know what to expect in these situations. It's just NOT for me . Clearly with how Ill State is playing it make sense. I just dont like these spots with a team off a big win KNOWINGLY playing a team that is shorthanded. Sometimes you just a break mentally in these spots and I havent seen either team live to have a feel. Just rather sit back and watch.

I absoluetly appreciate you mentioning it. The best way for me to get interested in a game is to have someone bring it to my attention.

Still looking at the Hawaii game. Though I dont really see why the Georgia DBs would be a concern. In the sense its the offense you worry about more then the indivual players. Not crazy about either yet cause I dont trust the Georgia offense and QB play...
 
My bookie does open teasers so I'm taking Georgia -2.5 today and will prob finish it off with Rutgers in a couple days. BOL to us.
 
Thanks Ramble and BOL with that. I only wish I could think in advance. Something strange to me about the RU - Ball State game.

Play : Georgia -9 (not nearly as strong as my opinion on USC)

No disrespect to any Hawaii backers or fans this is unlike my feelings about Illinois . I simply think when the dust settles Georgia will have won by 10 to 14 pts my estimate is actually 13,14. Anyway I just think Hawaii has not played any teams as talented as georgia and while they may play with all the motivation in the world there play OFF there home field has been very average IMO. Georgia should crack 40 here and simply dont see Hawaii getting 35 or better.

This is an improved Hawaii team but how much better are then the teams of years past? I think Brennan is talking to much and not letting his play dictate how he will be remembered. Lots more on my mind but hey its about to kick!

BOL
 
USC:cheers:

After watching that game Ill is exactly what I expected( bench Juice Williams ). First off USC looks like a pro team out there. Even time Booty drops back it looks like a pro offense. USC got alot of breaks but they also created them and came when the lead was fairly big. How bout we look at how many passes were dropped on Booty. Dropping a pass on 3rd down that moves the chain is effectively a turnover. It was staggering for awhile and they mean just as much as fumble or two. The stupidty to praise the Ill offense after Mendenhall broke that TD yd run for 79 yds. Nice run but it was a busted play. When USC guys got those holes they did the same and did anyone notice that USC barely even bothere dto run the ball ala the Pats! That was the difference USC methodically beat the ILL defense. Then the screen pass to Mendenhall again nice run cause the kid is talented as hell but busted play. USC turned there backs and ran downfield leaving the most explosive player open. Sure it was a tough fumble in the red zone but you knew ILL would have to work very hard to score today . Credit USC fortwice knocking the ball loose it wasnt like the ball just slipped out either time. Again look at Juice Willaims vs the good defenses....

I always like a good dog but USC showed why they really are the excellence of college football. Giving them WRs would be unfair.

Actually you want to sum thatgame up real quick. USC gets picked up and ILL starts on the USC 20 and look sterrible on offense even missing the FG. Good teams dont look like that in the opposing teams red zone IMO:cheers:
 
No sense is playing the total. Georgia has grinded out yards vs Hawaii especially after the first q. They have had great field position all day. Hawaii has been sacked 4 times. Defenses playing well and it appeasr big plays and quick drives will not happen here.

Just staying away and riding it out
 
happy new year bro...nice hit on SC.

team is going to be crazy good with those stable of backs next year and the best one didn't even play today (CJ Gable)
 
happy new year bro...nice hit on SC.

team is going to be crazy good with those stable of backs next year and the best one didn't even play today (CJ Gable)


The ground game was insane considering they were content to pass till it got huge..think 12 1st H running plays and most laye in the H...

Sort of suprised at Hawaii's offensive output ...

Happy NY....
 
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