Habs Late Start Tonight

[austinhous]

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--> A study from Stanford University's Sleep Disorders Clinic looked at the last 25 years of NFL MNF games, which always start at 9:00 PM EST, for possible advantages of West Coast teams playing at home versus East Coast teams, based on circadian rhythms. The results were published in the science journal Sleep (1997;20[5]:362-365). The results showed that West Coast teams won 63.5% of games. The puck drops at 10:30 PM EST for the Habs tonight in Los Angeles. It is their latest start time this season.

Kings -160

 

[bloodhound]

:shake:

 

[Kramer]

Interesting. Would love to know the ATS record of those west coast teams in MNF.

 

[austinhous]

Interesting. Would love to know the ATS record of those west coast teams in MNF.

To reduce the confounding variables in this study, a comparison was made with the Las Vegas point spread for each game. The point spread essentially makes both teams equal by adding a certain number of points to the weaker team’s score to ensure that an equal amount of money will be wagered on each team (19). Prior to each game, the point spread is carefully calculated by weighing the variables affecting each team’s predicted performance (team record, injury reports, home-field advantage, winning streaks, playing surface, etc.) (20). The distribution of the margin of victory over the point spread is approximately Gaussian and can be computed from a table of standard normal distribution (21). Therefore, important confounding variables are frequently nullified by the point spread.

:cheers:

 

[hugh613]

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--> A study from Stanford University's Sleep Disorders Clinic looked at the last 25 years of NFL MNF games, which always start at 9:00 PM EST, for possible advantages of West Coast teams playing at home versus East Coast teams, based on circadian rhythms. The results were published in the science journal Sleep (1997;20[5]:362-365). The results showed that West Coast teams won 63.5% of games. The puck drops at 10:30 PM EST for the Habs tonight in Los Angeles. It is their latest start time this season.

Kings -160

Good luck but a) MNF starts at 8:30 EST, not 9:00 EST (judging from the footnote, looks like that study was done 17 years ago) and b) the Canadiens are 7-1 their last 8 against the Kings and 4-0 their last 4 trips to Staples. Mind you, things are a lot different with Budaj in place of Price, so the Kings are probably a safe bet regardless.

 

[Lareux]

I would also think that only the first game of an NHL team's road trip would even make sense to try this, which Montreal is playing their 1st game of a West coast swing tonight. I'm not sure how much this study carries over to the NHL for a couple of reasons....1. as was pointed out, this study was done almost 2 decades ago, and 2. NHL teams travel a ton more than NFL teams do (since they play 41 road games as opposed to 8), so they may not be affected much at all, but will certainly be affected less than NFL players.

 

[austinhous]

In the last 7 years, the Habs are 4-10 SU in games starting at 10PM EST or later.

 

[Lareux]

In the last 7 years, the Habs are 4-10 SU in games starting at 10PM EST or later.

They've only played 14 games in the last 7 years 10pm or later? Either way, that's one team you're talking about...how have the rest of the East Coast teams fared?

 

[hugh613]

They've only played 14 games in the last 7 years 10pm or later? Either way, that's one team you're talking about...how have the rest of the East Coast teams fared?

I think like everything else, the results are probably pretty subjective (there's only 4 teams in the PST, and all 4 are traditionally good home teams).

If you want a profitable East Coast / West Coast trend, watch for MLS teams from the Eastern time zone playing 10:00 PM games on the West Coast (they just about never win). And, of course, the good old NFL West Coast teams playing 1:00 PM EST starts...