YoungGun11
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Gulfstream Park (Fountain of Youth Day)
We’re heading out to Miami’s Gulfstream Park on Saturday, where it’s Fountain of Youth day! It’s arguably the best card of the whole season at Gulfstream, with 13 races, including a bevy of stakes. The headliner is the Fountain of Youth Stakes, featuring several top Derby prospects, including Irish War Cry, Gunnevara, and Practical Joke.To help you navigate all the action, we’ve got Brian Arrigoni providing FREE picks & analysis of the entire card! Brian served as the paddock analyst at Canterbury Park this summer, and we’re happy to have him as one of the newest members of the Danonymous Racing team. You can find Brian’s write-ups of Gulfstream Park every Saturday here on the site.Take it away, Brian!!—
A card like today at Gulfstream Park during the Championship meet will only be rivaled by the Breeder’s Cup and the Kentucky Derby day card at Churchill Downs. This card is simply fantastic with 9 stakes races, the return of Catch A Glimpse, as well as the Fountain of Youth featuring the sport’s up and coming stars. Per usual there is an array of betting opportunities with vast storylines throughout the card. Friday’s pick 5 paid just under $15,000 and could easily top that today. Per usual this weekend there is plethora of great betting opportunities. Hopefully we can keep the momentum rolling while having 5 winner’s last week and cashing the late pick 4. Another example why horse racing is unmatched as the sport of kings and somewhere you can truly bet a little and win a lot. Follow me @MrB_CBYanalyst.
Top Pick: 24-117 21%
Top Pick ROI: $.79
Top 3: 71-117 61%
Contenders: 97-117 83%
Hammer Tymes: 9-18 50%
Race 1: Either the best way to start the card or the worst way to start the card, we won’t know until about 11:15 Central (despite post time at 11:00 Central) what kind of day it will be. Our first hammer tyme of the day lands here as Always Dreaming (1) was a dominant winner last time out at Tampa Bay Downs and should only improve today with a lot like. 2nd time off the layoff, 2nd race in the 3 year old year, as well as 2nd time going a route of ground. The one to catch to cash. Gamble’s Citizen (6) finds a nice spot for the 3 year old debut after a impressive 2 year old season and looks to make it 2 in a row today. Trainer Jose Carroll excels off of layoffs similar to today’s winning at 19%. Looking At Blessing (7) connections thought highly enough of him to nominate him for the Triple Crown, however things haven’t worked out. Has been the most successful while on the lead early on, however hasn’t show the same speed in the 3 year old season as this colt did as a 2 year old. Nik Juarez will likely be sending from the get go if he can. Hammer Tyme Selections: 1/6/4 Contenders: 1,4,6,7
Race 2: Have to draw a line through the last race as Sharm El Sheikh (8) was the victim of a brutal trip. Leading rider Luis Saez (22%) will retain the mount. A cleaner trip and the 3rd start in the form cycle should be sitting on a good one. Have to respect Sentry (3) as any time you see Smart Strike as the sire, you have to take note and realize he will likely love the sod. Trainer Claude “Shug” McGaughey doesn’t usually have them fully cranked first out (5%) however the addition of Hall of Fame Rider JR Velasquez, says this could be different. Inheritthewind (6) a first time starter for the Mark Casse barn who wins at 15% first out. This $400,000 purchase will look to begin paying off that high purchase price right away as the workouts are great. Selections: 8/3/6 Contenders: 3,6,8
Race 3: Could live a happy life with the money spent on these horses before they even hit the track for their first career start. Eastport (8) showed talent in his only career start closing in behind Lookinforeight who will be in today’s Fountain of Youth feature (race 13). Could be the one who appreciates the stretch out to two turns the most, and should be rolling late. Big Dollar Bill (6) almost surprised everyone at 35-1 last time out with apprentice jockey aboard. With the apprentice jockey will get 7 pounds off the others in here and will get Lasix for the first time. One of few in here with experience around 2 turns and the way he rallied wide into a slow pace last time, could be any kind. Super Buddy (7) likely were doing the rain dance as his sire won the Kentucky Derby rolling home in the slop. Although he is stretching out, I expect them to sit back and make one run. Could need a race routing first.Selections: 8/6/7 Contenders 1,4,6,7,8
Race 4: I challenge you to find another track in the country with 9 stakes races in one day. Look no further. as the 30th Running of the $100,000 Grade 3 Herecomesthebride will kick off the stakes races. Dream Dancing (1) has yet to find success in the Graded ranks yet, however she is lightly raced and improving with every start. Made quick work of a field of optional claimers last time out, now goes 2nd off the bench and should continue to improve. Coasted (4) will take plenty of beating off of a 2nd place finish in the Breeder’s Cup. Has beaten our top selection in the past by 6 lengths and did so without breaking a sweat. Sure to be over bet as your likely winner, however they have bigger fish to fry down the road as trainer Leah Gyarmati rarely has them fully cranked off a layoff at 0-17. Only hope is this monster filly needs a race. Sweeping Paddy (2) has been well beaten by our top two selections the last two races, however let’s not forget that this filly did go off as the favorite last time out. Should improve at a price. Selections: 1/4/2 Contenders: 1,2,4
Race 5: The 32nd Running of the Grade 3 Fred Hooper will cap off the early pick 5 with a competitive field of 8 set for the gate. Greenpointcrusder (8) could continue to improve as the barn switch did him wonders last time out, winning by open lengths without being asked. Will certainly need to continue to improve here, but has tactical speed from a tactical post and makes a world of sense in here. Bird Song (4) is likely to play catch me if you can as your sure fire pace setter. Set some blazing fast fractions last time out only to tire late behind an impressive horse in Tommy Macho. Have to catch this fella to cash, and he can be awfully stubborn in the lane. Tale of S’avall (5) seems to be kind of a bully. He loves to dominate the claiming ranks and beat up on the competition, however when he is faced with Graded Stakes competition he usually whimpers back to the barn well beaten. Numbers make sense in here, but will need to reverse recent graded stakes form to catch a pace. Expect him to sit close today off a layoff and a sprint. Selections: 8/4/5 Contenders: 4,5,7,8
Race 6: Can’t pass up the middle pick 4, as it is a must to use this spot to make some dough in order to put a competitive late pick 5 together to take a shot at thousands later. Celestine (1) switches barns to the Cristophe Clement Barn who I respect in the same company as Chad Brown and Mark Casse on the turf. With all eyes on another filly in here this girl is likely to be overlooked and is plenty classy in her own right. Has been blowing holes in the wind in the morning, and should get a good trip drawing the rail. Can’t help but wonder why Catch a Glimpse (7) off 3 Grade 1 races. I saw her schooling in the paddock Friday and she looks great, most likely over thinking this spot to return, however there is other speed to keep her honest. Off form is an understatement for Mizz Money (6). Connections make a last ditch effort at returning to glory as they send her to the leading turf trainer in Chad Brown. If anyone can do magic, it is this barn and these connections, must respect despite recent form similar to the Cleveland Browns. Selections: 1/7/6 Contenders 1,3,6,7
Race 7: A Hammer Tyme looks to make it two in a row in the 29th running of the $150,000 Grade 3 The Very One. I doubted Suffused (5) last time out as I thought the layoff and the 12 post may be too difficult to overcome. However I was wrong, and completely wrong as we won in hand without every being asked for much beating many in here. The one to beat. Paige (8) was 18-1 versus our top choice last time out and ran like a bomber. Stuck awfully wide should appreciate being inside today and the cutback in distance, could return to form at a price. Orlorda (6) will be your pacesetter and in route races similar to these it can often be a jockey’s race. Julien Leparoux will look to put them to sleep and walk them gate to wire on the front end. Hammer Tyme Selections: 5/8/6 Contenders: 3,5,6,8
Race 8: What a fun Maiden Race to start the pick 6 with 13 well bred studs set to 7 furlongs. Fayeq (13) goes out for Kiaran McLaughlin after Shadwell Stable laid down $800,000 to purchase this excellent looking colt. Workout pattern doesn’t show much other than fast early than slowed them down as the lessons and training were implemented. Texican (8) is technically the “other” Chad Brown entry considering the pricey stable mate in the 11 hole. Has been outworking older horses over at Palm Meadows in the morning, and could pop at first asking. If you like to eat, and I sure do Bobby Flay’s Caviar Czar (1) is your horse. Must respect everything that comes out of the Pletcher barn right now, and I love the 5F works but not the 1 post. Selections: 13/8/1 Contenders 1,2,8,11,13
Race 9: The late pick 5 will start with the Grade 3 Palm Beach. Snap Decision (5) put it all together last time out breaking from the 12th post going 9 furlongs. Cuts back today and should be plenty fit. Unsure if he can put together back to back efforts similar to the last, but anything close and he will get his picture taken for the second time in the last two races. Ticonderoga (9) gets the services of Joel Rosario today for the first time off the lengthy layoff. The new jock shouldn’t be an issue as Chad Brown and Joel Rosario are winning at a gaudy 37% this year at Gulfstream Park. Can’t afford to leave himself too much to do with this group, will need to tuck in as well. Sailing Home (2) will look to set the early pace and sail home, but will have to hold off some classy guys who are sure to come charging late. Should improve 2nd time going 2 turns, and should set a reasonable pace on the front end. Selections: 5/9/2 Contenders 2,6,8,9
Race 10: The $500,000 guaranteed late pick 4, with a pool that could surpass $1,000,000, starts here with the wide open Grade 2 Davona Dale. This could possibly be the most wide open race of the day, and a price I will find. Aspen Hilltop (11) is undefeated and now gets tested for class. Surprised many last time out closing while 7 wide at 14-1. A long layoff surprises nobody as they feel they have a runner. The wide rally while sprinting last time out shows the stretch out should not be an issue. Jordan’s Henny (2) has a win over the track and therefore a chance. Winning rider Luis Saez doesn’t return for the encore, but this filly took 7 tries to break the Maiden, and may have finally figured things out. Pretty City Dancer (12) is no stranger to the Winners Circle while winning 3 of 5 starts thus far. Should improve 2nd off the layoff and have enough tactical speed to sit a good trip despite the difficult post. Selections: 11/2/12 Contenders 1,2,7,9,11,12,13
Race 11: The stakes races continue with the 51st Grade 3 Canadian Turf. I am hoping for a Giant Run (6) from this guy as he looks to push his career earnings over $500,000. Will not be able to get the lead today and will have to sit just off the pace, but won’t have to close in too much as he should be sitting close. He has run well in the past off the layoff and expect a giant effort here. Projected (2) projects to be a presence off the layoff and returns to the races off a two year layoff. While his talent will remain, his manhood will not as he was recently gelded and tries Lasix for the first time. Excited to see what the changes can do for this talented guy, barn change, gelded, and Lasix, must respect. Dragon Bay (7) tries hard every time and is another who will not get the lead, but will sit in that 2nd tier and should get first run. Most recent blowout says this guy is ready at first asking off the layoff. Selections: 6/2/7 Contenders 1,2,3,6,7
Race 12: The appetizer before the entrée comes with the $200,000 Grade 2 Mac Diarmida. The top 2 selections are previous top selections from the past, and may be a bit of a stretch here. Patterson Cross (12) had me begging for the wire last time out when he took the lead at the top of the lane, but could not hold off the classy field as he ran a competitive 3rd at 38-1 as my top selection. Despite the tough post, I will bounce right back just as his jockey Jose Lezcano opts to. A little better timing, and a little worse price we could be getting pictures taken today. Despite letting me down as a single on a large pick 5 payoff last time out, I will bounce back on Danish Dynaformer (1) who ran like a horse who needed one off the layoff last time out. Should fire fresh today and has plenty of class to gallop by late in the lane. Wake Forest (4) disappointed many last time out going off as the heavy favorite at 3-5 last time out in a field of 11. Comes in fresh and has fired fresh off the layoff in the past as some of his best races are off layoffs similar. Selections: 12/1/4 Contenders 1,4,6,9,11,12
Race 13: After 7 hours of racing, 8 stakes races, and numerous severely delayed post times, the grand daddy of them all is here. The Grade 2 Fountain of Youth is long on numbers and longer on talent. The top 2 appear to stand above the rest in this tightly contested field of 11. Nobody can compete with the resume of Practical Joke (6) and his impressive 2 year old campaign. While winning the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont, he put up a time most older male horses would whinny at. Although the layoff leaves question marks horses make the biggest improvements from 2 years old to 3 years old, and any improvements from his 2 year old campaign has him continuing his journey to the Kentucky Derby today. Irish War Cry (8) is the hot horse, and it’s no secret he has been training great. Was the beneficiary of a perfect trip last time out while on a loose lead on a speed favoring track. I don’t think he draws off clear today and will have much more company on front end, it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure up front. Gunnevera (2) is the opposite of Irish War Cry in that he is void of speed and had a terrible trip last time out. If he had a cleaner trip he easily could be the hot horse in here as he was rolling late. Battle tested with 7 career starts and only missing the exacta twice, this guy could certainly be overlooked today.
Selections: 6/8/2 Contenders 2,5,6,7,8,11
Early Pick 5 ($72)
1: 1
2: 3,6,8
3: 4,6,7,8
4: 1,2,4
5: 4,5,7,8
Early Pick 4 ($37.50)
2: 8
3: 1,4,6,7,8
4: 1,2,4
5: 4,5,6,7,8
Late Pick 5 ($180)
9: 5
10: 1,2,7,9,11,13
11: 1,2,3,6,7
12: 1,4,6,9,11,12
13: 6,8
Late pick 4 ($90)
10: 1,2,7,9,11,13
11: 1,2,3,6,7
12: 1,4,6,9,11,12
13: 6
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @MrB_CBYanalyst for selections and analysis throughout the entire Canterbury Park Meet starting May 6 featuring the lowest takeout in the country. Along with every Saturday throughout the Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park on @DanonymousMan.
