GSW/Chic

SF_capper

CTG addict
I'm kinda retired, but pending a line, I might come out for this one

b2b for chicago, 3rd in 4. really short handed, and lost a pretty close one tonight agains Portland with no Heinrich, no Gordon, no Deng. DUnno what their status's will be 2m, but if short handed again, don't see how they hang

GS on a shit-load of rest which is great. Not only do we finally get some rest which we always could use with our short rotation and playing style, but we get time to introduce CWebb to the system. I truly believe CWebb will do damn well and help out the team. Esp when Baron is on the bench, our offense seems weak at times. as our playmakers are Barnes and SJax. Monta when he's on. I'd much rather have CWebb controlling the ball when Baron's out at the high-port, than SJax doin his dumb ass triple jab step fadeaway J

Lotta controversy of Webber taking Biedrins place. I'd personally rather see a starting lineup of Baron, Monta, Jack, Webber, Biedrins with Barnes and Al off the bench. but maybe nelson thinks this would be too slow and it would only have 2 3-pt shooter on the floor to start. I think we likely see Baron, monta, jack, al, webber to start 2m. If webber can play like he did last yr, he should help. he'd be a threat for both a pick and roll and pick and pop. (biedrins only roll, al only pop). I think of all people, it'll help Monta the most with his speed on the pick and roll/pop. Webber has nice hands, and should be able to set up a couple layups for us

This play imo has less to do with Webber's skills helping us on the floor, but more his presence in this game. GS definitely will want to get a W in Webber's first game, esp off this much rest. Fans will prolly give a huge ovation to see Webber again and you know how my team feeds off this crowd, and how much a crowd can hurt the Bulls.

1) the homecourt will be a huge advantage 2m
2) GS on shitload of rest vs chicago on 3/4 in the middle of this road trip
3) extra motivation to get W for webber

I do remember these 2 last meeting, which GS came back and stole it from Chicago. Maybe some revenge- it does scare me

DUnno what to expectin a line for this one. I'd guess GS -7-7.5
Less than 7 and I'll likely be on it.
The line is prolly waiting for injury status. Seeing as how Chicago is +6 with heinrich and gordon out to Portland, if both are out against GS it seems reasonable for +7.5. If one plays, it hurts the play. not because keinric/gordon is especially good talent wise, but because its another body and they won't be on a b2b.

assuming both out

Monta-Duhon
Baron-Sefalosha
Jack-Noc
Al-Joe
Ben-Webb

maybe some chicago's can give me the scoop on Thabo's D. any chance he can hang with Baron? I know Gordon/Heinrich both cannot
 
nice write up, it'll be interesting how C-webb performs tonight. The starting lineup i like is Baron, Monta, S jack, Harringto, and Biedrens. Then you got CJ, Barnes, Pietrus and Webber coming off the bench. Oh well, C-Webb will help at the end of close games when it comes down to a half court game. Just hope he can get up for rebounds on those gimpy knees.
 
For the game I am still thinking. GS has sucked on extra rest and has poor referees. Still I do favor them for the game. GS this year and last has played 8 home games on Thursday. They have covered the first quarter line in the last 7. That I will play when its put up. GL
 
Just saw the spread is 13. Will play GS first quarter regardless but may have to play Chicago taking 13 on dogs cover Thursday. GS even has the Kings next game.
 
The Starting 5 are Baron, Monta, Jackson, Webber, Biedrins for tonight...i think??? Who knows with Nellie....
 
Havent checked lines yet but I expected somewhere bewteen -11.5 and -13 if both Hinrich and Gordon looked doubtful. Which I just read now Tuck said 13 has come out. I agree that the spot is real tough because of the factors you mentioned. Chi played pretty damn good last night though but does the situational factor bury them? Sure looks scary with GSW being able to score in a hurry.

The 1st quarter is an idea but what about the possibility of a long layoff making GSW rusty along with fitting in CWebb? (which you mentioned)I think teams who played the night before tend to have an advantage in the 1st quarter .

Now Chi was blown out in 3 of the 4 prior @ GSW meetings. They lost by 8 at home catching 2.5 with Deng and Gordon...so I have to think 13.5 would be limit to lay IF both miss...les is cheap IMO...
 
bulls suck. i want kevin love or hansborough (unc).

so hard to figure what happens with the jv team out there.
 
You are definitely right about worry with Webber in the line up. Its a very legitimate problem. Still if Gordon is out and I am waiting on the bet till that is certain there is not much power behind the Bulls and GS has a simple pattern. They are bad against good teams in the first quarter at home and they just walk on bad teams. First quarter wins of 8 or higher being very common. Bulls have only lost by this margin on the road 10 times which is actually pretty good for them. Figure this for a average bet I think. Some times you lose. This might be one of them for me. Oh, facing Detroit after a 5 day rest GS beat them in the first quarter 40-25 and then lost the game.
 
Good stuff Tuck. I remember that Det game first few days of the season If I recall . With you myself trying to figure out the best way to approach this game but those are some good supporting trends..I just havent made up mind...BOL:cheers:
 
hmm thanks guys. I was embarassingly off on my line assumption

how was Portland -6, and GS -13?! is Portland really 7 pt worse than GS?

geez well with value, imo, gone I'll sit back and watch. Maybe there'll be value at half, but not sure if I would even want at this point. Would need GS down DD to get a pk, and not so sure I want to play that. I'll watch nd deicde from there. If I do make a play, I'll post it with thoughts. Maybe I'll be in the in-game, cuz I can't get a ticket. I'll be watching to see how Warriors choose to utilize Webber, and to see if he still has his touch from the wings. if he does, then I'll be happy.

will play 2nd H if GS is down say 5-12, and I feel Chicago is just getting lucky making hard shots. Rebounds will be important in this one. If GS can even the rebounds at half, and we're down a bit, I'll hop on 2nd H
 
I'll be hoping for GS down 7-8.

one last thing about Webber signing

Nellie always does some questionable lineup shit, and more often than not, it works. I mean what sense does it make to have a 6'9 dude guarding a 7'6 dude in Yao? Nellie knows what he's doin. I think in the playoffs, a quote was "in nelli we trust". I think it applies here. Warriors need scorers off the bench, which is why al often comes off the bench. tonights game will be intereesting
 
hmm thanks guys. I was embarassingly off on my line assumption

how was Portland -6, and GS -13?! is Portland really 7 pt worse than GS?

geez well with value, imo, gone I'll sit back and watch. Maybe there'll be value at half, but not sure if I would even want at this point. Would need GS down DD to get a pk, and not so sure I want to play that. I'll watch nd deicde from there. If I do make a play, I'll post it with thoughts. Maybe I'll be in the in-game, cuz I can't get a ticket. I'll be watching to see how Warriors choose to utilize Webber, and to see if he still has his touch from the wings. if he does, then I'll be happy.

will play 2nd H if GS is down say 5-12, and I feel Chicago is just getting lucky making hard shots. Rebounds will be important in this one. If GS can even the rebounds at half, and we're down a bit, I'll hop on 2nd H

Portland is terrible lately laying points which would be a factor . Gordon was a last minute scratch which really didnt move the line much. The situational factor probably adds a point or so as well. Generally to be honest I would think GSW would be about -3.5 on a neutral floor at the moment vs Port. Plus there 2 different type teams in that GSW is going to score alot so Port is a good matchup for Chi in the sense it can score in the 90's but can Chi no wscore 110 to compete with GSW? Spreads arent always cut and dry ..:cheers:
 
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