OK, so let's do this one at a time ...
Groups A & B
The winner of Group A gets the runner up in Group B
Brazil is going to win Group A which means they'll play the runner up in Group B.
In Group B you have:
Netherlands vs. Chile - If Chile wins, they win the group.
The question is, do the Dutch want to win the group and face Brazil or do they want to tank tomorrow and face Mexico or Croatia? Man, I've gotta say, if I'm the Dutch I'm real tempted to let Chile slide through here. As was said above, put off Brazil for a game or two. Personally I think it will be Mexico, who the Dutch should handle. But no matter which it is, wouldn't you rather play Mexico or Croatia than Brazil?
In Group B, obviously this Mexico/Croatia game has to be played straight up. Mexico can fall back, try to keep another clean sheet and skate through, but you're looking at a Croatia side that put up a big number against Cameroon.
Groups C & D
Right now, you have to figure Columbia wins group C. Yes, the Ivory Coast could catch them if Columbia loses and the IC puts it on Greece, but really I think you have to figure Columbia as winning the group.
The number may not be right, but I think you have to look at the IC vs. Greece. The Ivory Coast have scored in every game, they may not be playing great, but they're not playing poorly and Greece is essentially out. They could play spoiler, but they're not up against a team they're going to beat 1-0. They're going to have to score more than 1 to win, I'm not sure they can do that.
Japan needs to not only win, but win big in case the IC draws with Greece. Pretty much the moment the IC scores against Greece, Japan is done. But for Japan you'd think they have to open it way up. Which almost certainly won't end well for them, but what choice to they have. Over here?
In Group D, the Ticos have basically won the group. You could ask if they want to face Columbia, but they'd not only have to mail it in, but get help to come in second. Tough to see that as England have looked like shit. But PR seems to be making some changes. Wide open? England plays for pride and finds the back of the net a couple of times against PR's B team?
Italy/Uruguay has to be played straight up. Honestly, as an Italy fan, this game worries me too. PR worried me, so does this one. URU was the better side against England and could really do the same things they did to them against Italy. I also may not be near a TV or the Internet on Tuesday AM and may miss this game. Which may lead to me having a nervous breakdown. Just a heads up.
Groups E & F
Basically France is looking at playing Argentina unless I'm way off here.
I'm not sure what France has to play for. Not that they won't try, I'm just not sure why they'd try hard.
Also, tell me I'm wrong, but am I the only one who thinks the Swiss can pretty much name their number against Honduras?
I like the draw here in Argy/Nigeria a lot. I mean, Argy may win without trying too hard, but I have a feeling both teams would be just fine to get through this game without injury. 0-0, 1-1 feels really, really right to me here.
Bosnia/Iran? Talk about two disappointed, deflated teams. They have to be, no? No clue which way this one goes, thoughts appreciated, but I'll likely stay away.
Groups G & H
There are so many sort of side stories to this Germany/US matchup it's not even funny. But on the pitch, if Germany wants to, it's hard to see how they don't win. It probably doesn't really matter to them whether they face Belgium or Algeria. I mean, they'd probably like Algeria, but my guess is they don't care. The question is, do they care enough to try in this game or do they just want to do enough to keep everybody healthy, maybe scratch out a 1-1 draw and move along? Something tells me this argument will have its own thread.
What I personally believe, though, is that Ghana has a real chance to make a statement here. I don't have any faith in Portugal. They'd not only need to win, but win in staggering fashion and still get help to get through. I just don't see it. But that could be me.
In Group H, I have this weird feeling Algeria beats Russia for fun. Or that the Russians tank it so they can wager against their own team. Who knows, but I think that team is on the bus already.
And South Korea have never looked very impressive to me in this WC. I feel like Belgium may not even have to try hard to win this game relatively easily.
So, with all that said, it looks like your likely knockout stage matchups would be:
Brazil v. Chile/Dutch
Chile/Dutch v. Mexico/Croatia
Columbia v. Italy/Uruguay
Costa Rica v. Ivory Coast
France v. Nigeria
Argentina v. Ecuador (wow)
Germany v. Algeria
Belgium v. US/Ghana
I know there weren't a ton of iron-clad calls in this post, just trying to get everything out of my big ol' red head down on paper. Love to hear your thoughts.
