Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 21
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, May 21, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Chase Center in San Francisco
Golden State’s Three-Point Shooting
On offense, Golden State primarily does not want to score inside.
The Warriors rank 22nd in points in the paint per game.
Instead, they attempt the 5th-most three-pointers per game because they primarily want to shoot three-pointers and they depend heavily on making threes.
This statistical dependence on three-point shooting became especially prominent for Golden State especially in later stages of the season because Steph Curry has been healthier since the end of March.
Curry is Golden State’s highest-usage player by far and in fact one of the highest-usage players in the NBA.
So the Warriors rely especially on his skill set. Curry, who attempts the most threes in the NBA by a clear margin, is at his best from behind the arc.
In order to assess Golden State’s ability to convert three-pointers against Memphis, we need to take a look at the Grizzlies’ perimeter defense.
Memphis Perimeter Defense
Memphis’ perimeter defense has experienced a drastic improvement that mirrors the improvement apparent in the team’s defense as a whole.
From the beginning of the regular season until the start of April, Memphis allowed wide open three-pointers with 20.6 percent frequency.
In this respect, the Grizzlies had one of the NBA’s worst perimeter defenses.
But from April, the Grizzlies are allowing wide open three-pointers with 15.9 percent frequency. This is nearly a five-percent drop. In this statistic, they rank second-best.
They are allowing uncontested three-pointers with drastically lower frequency.
One reason for Memphis’ improvement is Justise Winslow, who missed the start of the season.
As evident in his good defensive rating, he is able to make a positive defensive impact once he got his feet wet and began playing regular minutes.
Memphis’ Overall Defensive Improvement
Like its perimeter defense, Memphis’ overall defense has more recently been one of the NBA’s best.
Since May 8, the Grizzlies rank fourth in defensive rating (for comparison’s sake, the Warriors rank 12th in defensive rating since the same time span).
They woke up after suffering an embarrassing loss on May 6 to lowly Detroit. Since May 8, they allowed over 110 points one game and held usually high-scoring Dallas, for example, to 104 points.
That one exception — where they allowed 113 points — was a loss at Golden State. But the game was tied 91-91 in the 4th quarter with 6:12 to go when Dillon Brooks fouled out.
Brooks is Memphis’ top defender. He regularly locks down the opponent’s best player by staying in front of him, harassing him, and contesting his shots.
One recent example of Brooks’ successful harassment came on Wednesday when he limited San Antonio’s top scorer DeMar DeRozan to a 5-for-21 performance in field goals.
Jaren Jackson has also been an important defender. He has lately been excellent on defense, improving his defensive rating.
He complements the stout rim protection of Jonas Valanciunas. While the latter is big and strong, but not so mobile, Jackson is not so big or strong, but long and mobile.
Individually, both players help secure the interior, such that Grizzly defenders can devote more attention to the perimeter.
Turnovers
In addition to limiting Curry by having Brooks guard him and limiting the Warriors’ three-point attack in general with stronger perimeter defense, the Grizzlies will accrue turnovers.
Memphis is one of the best teams at scoring points off turnovers. Its players create havoc, disrupting the opponent’s offensive rhythm by amassing deflections, steals, and turning defense into offense.
Golden State, which ranks 25th at limiting opposing points off turnovers, is vulnerable to this significant source of Memphis’ scoring.
The Grizzlies love to run the floor with speedsters like Ja Morant, who characteristically thrives in transition.
Because scoring on the run — as measured by frequency of transition plays and fastbreak points, where Memphis ranks number one or close to number one — is such a prominent part of the Grizzly attack, it will be a difference-maker in tonight’s game.
With solid perimeter defense, similarly top-level overall defense, and by scoring a lot on the run, Memphis will pull off the upset tonight.
Best Bet: Grizzlies +5 at -108 at Heritage & Grizzlies ML at +170 at Heritage
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, May 21, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Chase Center in San Francisco
Golden State’s Three-Point Shooting
On offense, Golden State primarily does not want to score inside.
The Warriors rank 22nd in points in the paint per game.
Instead, they attempt the 5th-most three-pointers per game because they primarily want to shoot three-pointers and they depend heavily on making threes.
This statistical dependence on three-point shooting became especially prominent for Golden State especially in later stages of the season because Steph Curry has been healthier since the end of March.
Curry is Golden State’s highest-usage player by far and in fact one of the highest-usage players in the NBA.
So the Warriors rely especially on his skill set. Curry, who attempts the most threes in the NBA by a clear margin, is at his best from behind the arc.
In order to assess Golden State’s ability to convert three-pointers against Memphis, we need to take a look at the Grizzlies’ perimeter defense.
Memphis Perimeter Defense
Memphis’ perimeter defense has experienced a drastic improvement that mirrors the improvement apparent in the team’s defense as a whole.
From the beginning of the regular season until the start of April, Memphis allowed wide open three-pointers with 20.6 percent frequency.
In this respect, the Grizzlies had one of the NBA’s worst perimeter defenses.
But from April, the Grizzlies are allowing wide open three-pointers with 15.9 percent frequency. This is nearly a five-percent drop. In this statistic, they rank second-best.
They are allowing uncontested three-pointers with drastically lower frequency.
One reason for Memphis’ improvement is Justise Winslow, who missed the start of the season.
As evident in his good defensive rating, he is able to make a positive defensive impact once he got his feet wet and began playing regular minutes.
Memphis’ Overall Defensive Improvement
Like its perimeter defense, Memphis’ overall defense has more recently been one of the NBA’s best.
Since May 8, the Grizzlies rank fourth in defensive rating (for comparison’s sake, the Warriors rank 12th in defensive rating since the same time span).
They woke up after suffering an embarrassing loss on May 6 to lowly Detroit. Since May 8, they allowed over 110 points one game and held usually high-scoring Dallas, for example, to 104 points.
That one exception — where they allowed 113 points — was a loss at Golden State. But the game was tied 91-91 in the 4th quarter with 6:12 to go when Dillon Brooks fouled out.
Brooks is Memphis’ top defender. He regularly locks down the opponent’s best player by staying in front of him, harassing him, and contesting his shots.
One recent example of Brooks’ successful harassment came on Wednesday when he limited San Antonio’s top scorer DeMar DeRozan to a 5-for-21 performance in field goals.
Jaren Jackson has also been an important defender. He has lately been excellent on defense, improving his defensive rating.
He complements the stout rim protection of Jonas Valanciunas. While the latter is big and strong, but not so mobile, Jackson is not so big or strong, but long and mobile.
Individually, both players help secure the interior, such that Grizzly defenders can devote more attention to the perimeter.
Turnovers
In addition to limiting Curry by having Brooks guard him and limiting the Warriors’ three-point attack in general with stronger perimeter defense, the Grizzlies will accrue turnovers.
Memphis is one of the best teams at scoring points off turnovers. Its players create havoc, disrupting the opponent’s offensive rhythm by amassing deflections, steals, and turning defense into offense.
Golden State, which ranks 25th at limiting opposing points off turnovers, is vulnerable to this significant source of Memphis’ scoring.
The Grizzlies love to run the floor with speedsters like Ja Morant, who characteristically thrives in transition.
Because scoring on the run — as measured by frequency of transition plays and fastbreak points, where Memphis ranks number one or close to number one — is such a prominent part of the Grizzly attack, it will be a difference-maker in tonight’s game.
With solid perimeter defense, similarly top-level overall defense, and by scoring a lot on the run, Memphis will pull off the upset tonight.
Best Bet: Grizzlies +5 at -108 at Heritage & Grizzlies ML at +170 at Heritage
