NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, May 21, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Chase Center in San Francisco
The Importance of Steph Curry
Tonight’s game will be decided largely by the extent to which Warrior star Steph Curry dominates in the scoring department.
When these two teams last played — on May 16 — Curry amassed 46 points. Golden State covered the -3.5 in that game, winning 113-101.
Memphis did cover one game against Golden State back in March when Curry did not play and Golden State’s leading scorer was Jordan Poole with 26 points.
In the third game between these teams, the Warriors covered the spread without Curry. But Andrew Wiggins essentially took over for Curry. Wiggins scored 40 points while producing a Curry-like 6-for-11 performance from deep.
The decisiveness of Steph Curry’s scoring output should not be surprising considering the fact that he owns the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA.
This statistic indicates the extent to which the Warriors rely on him. While they generally flounder when he is absent, they need somebody (like Curry, but also Wiggins in that one anomalous game) to perform superbly as an individual and to generate a strong scoring total.
Curry attempts 2.1 more three-pointers per game than any other player. So when we’re talking about the importance of Curry’s performance tonight, we really mean the importance of his three-point shooting.
In order to predict how well Curry will perform from behind the arc tonight, we need to look into Memphis’ perimeter defense.
The Last Game
Let’s consider Memphis’ perimeter defense in Memphis’ last and recent game against Golden State.
As the box score shows, Curry performed extremely well. He performed especially well in the final six minutes of the game.
It would be easy, but misleading, to claim that Curry was taking over, that the Warrior star was behaving like an MVP should, that he was being clutch by playing well when the game was on the line.
While Curry largely explains why the Warriors won by 12, one has to consider that the game was tied with 6:12 left to go.
Curry had been productive all game. So the fact that Curry was being productive does not explain why the Warriors outscored Memphis by 12.
Something else had to happen, such that Curry’s productivity was suddenly able to make the difference in the game.
That “something else” that happened was that Dillon Brooks fouled out. The score was 91-91 before he had to leave the game.
The Importance of Dillon Brooks
Brooks’ absence was difference-making, allowing Curry to lead his team to victory, because Brooks is a great defender.
Generally, Curry was doing his scoring when Brooks was not guarding him.
Brooks is a top-level defender who deserves a spot on the NBA All-Defensive Team because he reliably locks down the opponent’s best scorer.
On Wednesday, for example, he locked down San Antonio’s top scorer DeMar DeRozan, almost entirely being the one responsible for DeRozan’s 5-for-21 shooting effort from the floor.
The Grizzly lock-down defender generally does not foul out. So expect him on the floor throughout the game where he’ll limit Curry.
Memphis vs. Warrior Interior Defense
On offense, Memphis has to rely on scoring at the basket more than most teams because the Grizzlies lack effective three-point options, for which reason they rank 24th in three-pointers made per game.
Golden State, however, has a demonstrably effective interior defense which excels at limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket more than every other team except five.
The Warriors are also great at limiting opposing attempts at this distance from the basket.
Led by former Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, they are small and athletic, which makes them match up way better with Memphis than they did with the Lakers.
Whereas the Lakers could throw multiple 250-pound scorers at them, Memphis can only lean on one big, double-digit scorer who also invests a lot of energy in rebounding and defense.
Total Verdict
I expect a low-scoring game because each half-court defense can assert itself today.
Led by Brooks, Memphis will limit Curry, who Golden State absolutely depends on to perform well from deep.
Trying mostly to score inside, Memphis will struggle against the Warriors’ attentive and effective rim protection,
Memphis On The Run
In terms of a side, the Grizzlies will come out on top because of their effectivity on the run.
They are great at accruing deflections, steals, and otherwise forcing turnovers.
Their defense helps them lead the NBA in fastbreak points per game.
Golden State, however, ranks bottom 10 both in limiting its own turnovers and in limiting opposing fastbreak points.
By using strong defense to keep pace with Golden State’s half-court offense while winning the battle in transition, Memphis will have Golden State on upset alert.
Best Bet: Parlay Grizzlies +4 at -108 & Under 220.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, May 21, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Chase Center in San Francisco
The Importance of Steph Curry
Tonight’s game will be decided largely by the extent to which Warrior star Steph Curry dominates in the scoring department.
When these two teams last played — on May 16 — Curry amassed 46 points. Golden State covered the -3.5 in that game, winning 113-101.
Memphis did cover one game against Golden State back in March when Curry did not play and Golden State’s leading scorer was Jordan Poole with 26 points.
In the third game between these teams, the Warriors covered the spread without Curry. But Andrew Wiggins essentially took over for Curry. Wiggins scored 40 points while producing a Curry-like 6-for-11 performance from deep.
The decisiveness of Steph Curry’s scoring output should not be surprising considering the fact that he owns the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA.
This statistic indicates the extent to which the Warriors rely on him. While they generally flounder when he is absent, they need somebody (like Curry, but also Wiggins in that one anomalous game) to perform superbly as an individual and to generate a strong scoring total.
Curry attempts 2.1 more three-pointers per game than any other player. So when we’re talking about the importance of Curry’s performance tonight, we really mean the importance of his three-point shooting.
In order to predict how well Curry will perform from behind the arc tonight, we need to look into Memphis’ perimeter defense.
The Last Game
Let’s consider Memphis’ perimeter defense in Memphis’ last and recent game against Golden State.
As the box score shows, Curry performed extremely well. He performed especially well in the final six minutes of the game.
It would be easy, but misleading, to claim that Curry was taking over, that the Warrior star was behaving like an MVP should, that he was being clutch by playing well when the game was on the line.
While Curry largely explains why the Warriors won by 12, one has to consider that the game was tied with 6:12 left to go.
Curry had been productive all game. So the fact that Curry was being productive does not explain why the Warriors outscored Memphis by 12.
Something else had to happen, such that Curry’s productivity was suddenly able to make the difference in the game.
That “something else” that happened was that Dillon Brooks fouled out. The score was 91-91 before he had to leave the game.
The Importance of Dillon Brooks
Brooks’ absence was difference-making, allowing Curry to lead his team to victory, because Brooks is a great defender.
Generally, Curry was doing his scoring when Brooks was not guarding him.
Brooks is a top-level defender who deserves a spot on the NBA All-Defensive Team because he reliably locks down the opponent’s best scorer.
On Wednesday, for example, he locked down San Antonio’s top scorer DeMar DeRozan, almost entirely being the one responsible for DeRozan’s 5-for-21 shooting effort from the floor.
The Grizzly lock-down defender generally does not foul out. So expect him on the floor throughout the game where he’ll limit Curry.
Memphis vs. Warrior Interior Defense
On offense, Memphis has to rely on scoring at the basket more than most teams because the Grizzlies lack effective three-point options, for which reason they rank 24th in three-pointers made per game.
Golden State, however, has a demonstrably effective interior defense which excels at limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket more than every other team except five.
The Warriors are also great at limiting opposing attempts at this distance from the basket.
Led by former Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, they are small and athletic, which makes them match up way better with Memphis than they did with the Lakers.
Whereas the Lakers could throw multiple 250-pound scorers at them, Memphis can only lean on one big, double-digit scorer who also invests a lot of energy in rebounding and defense.
Total Verdict
I expect a low-scoring game because each half-court defense can assert itself today.
Led by Brooks, Memphis will limit Curry, who Golden State absolutely depends on to perform well from deep.
Trying mostly to score inside, Memphis will struggle against the Warriors’ attentive and effective rim protection,
Memphis On The Run
In terms of a side, the Grizzlies will come out on top because of their effectivity on the run.
They are great at accruing deflections, steals, and otherwise forcing turnovers.
Their defense helps them lead the NBA in fastbreak points per game.
Golden State, however, ranks bottom 10 both in limiting its own turnovers and in limiting opposing fastbreak points.
By using strong defense to keep pace with Golden State’s half-court offense while winning the battle in transition, Memphis will have Golden State on upset alert.
Best Bet: Parlay Grizzlies +4 at -108 & Under 220.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
