NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
Indiana’s Offense
The Pacer offense relies heavily on its ability to score in front of the basket.
Whereas Indiana attempts the 19th-highest rate of three-pointers, it attempts the most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Possibly no player demonstrates what coach Nate Bjorkgren wants to do on offense more than forward Doug McDermott.
McDermott has always been known for his three-point shooting ability.
But under Bjorkgren, he has drastically upped his rate of field goal attempts at the basket.
Instead of trying to shoot from deep, he is cutting or otherwise moving without the basketball, hoping to go downhill, and trying to finish over defenders.
Power forward Domantas Sabonis is a central part of Indiana’s offense.
Sabonis will try to bully or finesse his way to the basket if he is not identifying a cutter like McDermott or otherwise absorbing defensive attention in order to pass and get other guys involved.
These two players — Sabonis and McDermott — help explain why the Pacers attempt so many shots at the rim.
But there is one more crucial component to the Pacer offense: Malcolm Brogdon.
The former Virginia point guard is tasked with added offensive responsibility given the absence of would-be starters TJ Warren and Caris LeVert.
Brogdon can create on his own. Sometimes, he receives criticism for playing “hero-ball.” But the Pacer offense needs him to be selfish sometimes in order to make up for not having Warren or LeVert.
Memphis Defense vs. Indiana Offense: Inside
The Grizzly defense matches up well against Indiana’s offense because the Grizzlies allow the lowest field goal percentage on attempts made within five feet of the basket.
For a Pacer team that wants primarily to score at the basket, it will be an uncomfortable evening offensively.
Two defensive factors in front of the basket for Memphis will be Xavier Tillman and Gorgui Dieng.
Dieng has always been an underrated defender despite consistently impressive defensive stats like defensive real plus-minus and defensive rating.
He makes guys around him better, for example by constantly communicating. He is known for possessing great length which helps him cover pick-and-rolls in addition to protecting the rim.
Formerly the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year, Tillman is a smart, instinctive defender. While he doesn’t possess Dieng’s length, he still distinguishes himself in terms of things like toughness, positioning, and intelligence.
Guarding Brogdon
While the Pacers will lack their desired scoring inside against the Grizzly interior defense, they will need to rely on Brogdon to score a lot of points.
While they need to rely on Brogdon individually when the offense stagnates, the problem with relying on Brogdon is that point guards consistently struggle against Memphis’ defense.
In two games against Memphis, San Antonio’s two leading point guards finished below their season average in points and above their season average in turnovers.
Before facing the Spurs back-to-back, the Grizzlies encountered Chris Paul as they faced the Suns. In addition to finishing below his scoring average, Paul more than doubled his average turnover rate.
The list continues: the Grizzlies feast on opposing point guards.
Memphis Offense vs. Indiana Defense
One might try to say that Memphis’ offense will lack firepower because the Grizzlies are playing consecutive games.
But because they blew out San Antonio yesterday, they were able to refresh their starters by utilizing their bench players more.
Key point guard Ja Morant, for example, only accrued 22 minutes yesterday when he likes to play for over 30 minutes when he doesn’t have to play back-to-back.
So Morant will be fit, which is crucial because Indiana’s backcourt is characteristically slow.
Defensively, Indiana wants to apply ball pressure even to guys like Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons — who on Sunday scored a season-high 21 against Indiana with all his points coming inside the arc -- who don’t like to shoot threes.
Morant will thus punish both the slowness of opposing defenders -- because he is characteristically fast — and he will punish defenders for guarding him too closely.
He’s converting over half of his field goal attempts because of his ability to get to the basket even when his team isn’t in transition.
It’s hard for a defender to keep Morant in front of him. Morant will often play with defenders’ difficulty in staying in front of him by driving and then pulling back for an uncontested shot attempt in front of the basket.
The Verdict
Recent trends support my match-up distinctions and provide additional reasoning on their own because they show that these two teams are heading in different directions.
Whereas the Grizzlies are on a 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS run, the Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
The Pacers have been upset four times during this streak while the Grizzlies are consistently pulling off upsets.
Indiana will struggle to score against Memphis’ high-quality interior defense which is stabilized by multiple big men.
Memphis will also win the point guard battle by limiting Brogdon and thriving with Morant. Morant gives this game a dominant scorer.
Best Bet: Parlay Grizzles +6 at -110 & Under 221 at -110 at +264 odds with Bookmaker
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
Indiana’s Offense
The Pacer offense relies heavily on its ability to score in front of the basket.
Whereas Indiana attempts the 19th-highest rate of three-pointers, it attempts the most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Possibly no player demonstrates what coach Nate Bjorkgren wants to do on offense more than forward Doug McDermott.
McDermott has always been known for his three-point shooting ability.
But under Bjorkgren, he has drastically upped his rate of field goal attempts at the basket.
Instead of trying to shoot from deep, he is cutting or otherwise moving without the basketball, hoping to go downhill, and trying to finish over defenders.
Power forward Domantas Sabonis is a central part of Indiana’s offense.
Sabonis will try to bully or finesse his way to the basket if he is not identifying a cutter like McDermott or otherwise absorbing defensive attention in order to pass and get other guys involved.
These two players — Sabonis and McDermott — help explain why the Pacers attempt so many shots at the rim.
But there is one more crucial component to the Pacer offense: Malcolm Brogdon.
The former Virginia point guard is tasked with added offensive responsibility given the absence of would-be starters TJ Warren and Caris LeVert.
Brogdon can create on his own. Sometimes, he receives criticism for playing “hero-ball.” But the Pacer offense needs him to be selfish sometimes in order to make up for not having Warren or LeVert.
Memphis Defense vs. Indiana Offense: Inside
The Grizzly defense matches up well against Indiana’s offense because the Grizzlies allow the lowest field goal percentage on attempts made within five feet of the basket.
For a Pacer team that wants primarily to score at the basket, it will be an uncomfortable evening offensively.
Two defensive factors in front of the basket for Memphis will be Xavier Tillman and Gorgui Dieng.
Dieng has always been an underrated defender despite consistently impressive defensive stats like defensive real plus-minus and defensive rating.
He makes guys around him better, for example by constantly communicating. He is known for possessing great length which helps him cover pick-and-rolls in addition to protecting the rim.
Formerly the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year, Tillman is a smart, instinctive defender. While he doesn’t possess Dieng’s length, he still distinguishes himself in terms of things like toughness, positioning, and intelligence.
Guarding Brogdon
While the Pacers will lack their desired scoring inside against the Grizzly interior defense, they will need to rely on Brogdon to score a lot of points.
While they need to rely on Brogdon individually when the offense stagnates, the problem with relying on Brogdon is that point guards consistently struggle against Memphis’ defense.
In two games against Memphis, San Antonio’s two leading point guards finished below their season average in points and above their season average in turnovers.
Before facing the Spurs back-to-back, the Grizzlies encountered Chris Paul as they faced the Suns. In addition to finishing below his scoring average, Paul more than doubled his average turnover rate.
The list continues: the Grizzlies feast on opposing point guards.
Memphis Offense vs. Indiana Defense
One might try to say that Memphis’ offense will lack firepower because the Grizzlies are playing consecutive games.
But because they blew out San Antonio yesterday, they were able to refresh their starters by utilizing their bench players more.
Key point guard Ja Morant, for example, only accrued 22 minutes yesterday when he likes to play for over 30 minutes when he doesn’t have to play back-to-back.
So Morant will be fit, which is crucial because Indiana’s backcourt is characteristically slow.
Defensively, Indiana wants to apply ball pressure even to guys like Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons — who on Sunday scored a season-high 21 against Indiana with all his points coming inside the arc -- who don’t like to shoot threes.
Morant will thus punish both the slowness of opposing defenders -- because he is characteristically fast — and he will punish defenders for guarding him too closely.
He’s converting over half of his field goal attempts because of his ability to get to the basket even when his team isn’t in transition.
It’s hard for a defender to keep Morant in front of him. Morant will often play with defenders’ difficulty in staying in front of him by driving and then pulling back for an uncontested shot attempt in front of the basket.
The Verdict
Recent trends support my match-up distinctions and provide additional reasoning on their own because they show that these two teams are heading in different directions.
Whereas the Grizzlies are on a 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS run, the Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
The Pacers have been upset four times during this streak while the Grizzlies are consistently pulling off upsets.
Indiana will struggle to score against Memphis’ high-quality interior defense which is stabilized by multiple big men.
Memphis will also win the point guard battle by limiting Brogdon and thriving with Morant. Morant gives this game a dominant scorer.
Best Bet: Parlay Grizzles +6 at -110 & Under 221 at -110 at +264 odds with Bookmaker
