JPicks
Pretty much a regular
Sorry to start another thread, but I thought we might be able to have a discussion here that ties in Redbearde's style of ML's and Killa's thread about poor teams and their inability to cover without winning SU.
With such a large card today there happens to be many games that really jump out at me. I'm not really one who wants a SportNut size card on a daily basis so I'll occasionally take a long shot Parlay. I don't post them in my records only because I like to keep it all about staight bets, but the value IS there beyond a doubt. I thought I'd post this parlay that I'm playing only for entertainment and maybe to create some good conversation.
1 Unit to win 44.99 Units
Bobcats ML +350/ Hawks ML +265/ Knicks ML +180
So you have three teams that are medium sized to big underdogs and all are there for a reason. I can honestly find a reason why I think all three have a legitimate chance of winning.
Bobcats SU winner is 27-3-1 ATS I have a great deal of confidence that they can win the game tonight as they're 3-4 SU last 7 win wins against Utah, Indiana, and the Lakers. Respectable losses to Dallas, Minnesota and Washington. Magic are 5-9 SU last 14 with wins against a depleted Sixers team, Cavs, Hornets, Heat, and Clippers. 3 of those teams barely qualified as NBA teams when they played them and the Cavs and Clippers are horrid road teams. Some of their losses have included the Warriors and Raptors at home. Not what you would consider good losses. So obviously at nearly 4-1 their is plent of value in the Bobcats.
Hawks SU winner is 27-3 ATS. The Hawks are 14-4 ATS last 18 versus the Raptors and have beaten them twice this year already. Raptors won't have Ford or Garbajosa and Bosh will be playing his 2nd game back from the knee injury. The Hawks have lost 7 striaght SU. Seems horrible, well it is, but their is a fine line to those losses. They can against some stiff competition. Chicago, Indiana, Utah, Cleveland, Houston, and San Antonio. I think they're going to find Toronto's defense to be a welcome suprise after facing 5 of the best defenses in the league. Probably not as good of value as the Bobcats, but their are injuries for the Raptors along with past results that are keeping this line closer.
Knicks SU winner is 32-3 ATS. They are about as unpredictable as a team can be. I think everybody is aware why they can win tonight. Mainly no inside game for the Sonics and this would be a nice win to salvage the trip.
So if I somehow come out of the first two games with a victory I'll have plenty of time between those games and the final game to hedge the whole bet. I'd be in a position to play two units on the Sonics ML and break even with a Sonics victory. If the Knicks were to pull off the upset then I'd be left with a 43 unit victory. The better way to play it would be to put 4 units on the Sonics ML and come out a winner either way. The hard part is getting to a position where you can decide how much to hedge.
All thoughts are welcome and encouraged.
With such a large card today there happens to be many games that really jump out at me. I'm not really one who wants a SportNut size card on a daily basis so I'll occasionally take a long shot Parlay. I don't post them in my records only because I like to keep it all about staight bets, but the value IS there beyond a doubt. I thought I'd post this parlay that I'm playing only for entertainment and maybe to create some good conversation.
1 Unit to win 44.99 Units
Bobcats ML +350/ Hawks ML +265/ Knicks ML +180
So you have three teams that are medium sized to big underdogs and all are there for a reason. I can honestly find a reason why I think all three have a legitimate chance of winning.
Bobcats SU winner is 27-3-1 ATS I have a great deal of confidence that they can win the game tonight as they're 3-4 SU last 7 win wins against Utah, Indiana, and the Lakers. Respectable losses to Dallas, Minnesota and Washington. Magic are 5-9 SU last 14 with wins against a depleted Sixers team, Cavs, Hornets, Heat, and Clippers. 3 of those teams barely qualified as NBA teams when they played them and the Cavs and Clippers are horrid road teams. Some of their losses have included the Warriors and Raptors at home. Not what you would consider good losses. So obviously at nearly 4-1 their is plent of value in the Bobcats.
Hawks SU winner is 27-3 ATS. The Hawks are 14-4 ATS last 18 versus the Raptors and have beaten them twice this year already. Raptors won't have Ford or Garbajosa and Bosh will be playing his 2nd game back from the knee injury. The Hawks have lost 7 striaght SU. Seems horrible, well it is, but their is a fine line to those losses. They can against some stiff competition. Chicago, Indiana, Utah, Cleveland, Houston, and San Antonio. I think they're going to find Toronto's defense to be a welcome suprise after facing 5 of the best defenses in the league. Probably not as good of value as the Bobcats, but their are injuries for the Raptors along with past results that are keeping this line closer.
Knicks SU winner is 32-3 ATS. They are about as unpredictable as a team can be. I think everybody is aware why they can win tonight. Mainly no inside game for the Sonics and this would be a nice win to salvage the trip.
So if I somehow come out of the first two games with a victory I'll have plenty of time between those games and the final game to hedge the whole bet. I'd be in a position to play two units on the Sonics ML and break even with a Sonics victory. If the Knicks were to pull off the upset then I'd be left with a 43 unit victory. The better way to play it would be to put 4 units on the Sonics ML and come out a winner either way. The hard part is getting to a position where you can decide how much to hedge.
All thoughts are welcome and encouraged.
