Great article for RL betting (Tips & strategies)

one more tip the great Vegas Kyle taught me as well that's not in this article is never bet favorites on the runline at home. You have to outscore the opposition by 2 runs and also get 1 less turn at the plate. It's hard enough to win let alone laying 1.5 runs with one fewer opportunity to score.
 
sirwinzalot said:
one more tip the great Vegas Kyle taught me as well that's not in this article is never bet favorites on the runline at home. You have to outscore the opposition by 2 runs and also get 1 less turn at the plate. It's hard enough to win let alone laying 1.5 runs with one fewer opportunity to score.
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This is my #1 betting rule HANDS DOWN
 
It is also an issue with regards to extra innings, where the away team is far more likely to win by more than 1 run than the home team given the home team needs a multi-run homer to cover a runline in extra innings whereas the away team can more easily put up a crooked number.
 
Home teams getting one less AB is very much factored into the RL pricing. A road team laying -110 to -120 will be roughly +140 to +160 on the RL (depending on the total), whereas a home team laying the same amount will be roughly +165 to +185.

The only edge I could really see as far as which RLs to bet and not bet would be laying the -1.5 more often against teams with good bullpens/closers and not laying -1.5 against teams with bad bullpens/closers. More likely to get fucked by a 1-run win if fading a team who always blows it in the 8th or 9th.

Oh, and identify the team who has a horseshoe up its ass - cough 2016 Texas Rangers cough - and blind bet +1.5 against them.
 
And bearing in mind the RL price is derived partially from the total, there is zero value in taking +1.5 in lower-scoring affairs and laying -1.5 in higher-scoring affairs. That's already been factored into the number.
 
I assume almost everything is accounted for in the line at some level at this point. I remember when RL traps were a doable endeavor though, so it hasn't always been so.
 
I wonder how long they've had it factored in. My old boss literally had a chart where you could figure RL based on ML/total/home or road fave, but never asked him how far back it went.
 
As long as we are on the subject, does anyone have data of the number of 1 run games by season? Obviously that is incomplete (1 run dog winners) for what we are talking about but I was curious if there has been a shift in that number from pre-steroid era to steroid era to post-steroid era (not to mention stadium changes).
 
vk said:
As long as we are on the subject, does anyone have data of the number of 1 run games by season? Obviously that is incomplete (1 run dog winners) for what we are talking about but I was curious if there has been a shift in that number from pre-steroid era to steroid era to post-steroid era (not to mention stadium changes).
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Baseball reference has the standings and will show 1 run games for each team.
 
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