grand prix of houston

[captjohn67]

16-22 (+9.96)

the doubleheader is not until the 28th and 29th, but had some time, so....Last year they had a doubleheader as well and the first race was won by Dixon, and the second by Power. Before last year, it was back in 2007 when they last held one here. Organizers promise that the bump in turn one will no longer be a factor ( see below) What do you do when you realize you have a major problem (the bump) and you don't have time to fix it?? Well you put up tire barriers to solve the problem.

[video=youtube;TM9cFXTIvwE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM9cFXTIvwE[/video]

sadly, this was also the venue where Franchitti lost his career (and almost a hell of a lot more)

 

[captjohn67]

Franchitti wreck


[video=youtube;hE5uBmWADzw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hE5uBmWADzw[/video]

 

[captjohn67]

so what are we thinking??

Power - has only one podium ( a win ) in 4 attempts, but i predict he will be the favorite. He is leading the points, is the only man to have finished every lap this season, and has not finished worse than 8th in a race this year. Will be +375-400ish.

Dixon - 1st and a 2nd last year and a 18th in his only other attempt. Second fav at + 500ish

Pagenaud - in 3 attempts here, he has never qualified worse than 7th and never finished worse than 6th. This year he has finished worse than 6th in only two of the eight races run so far and has brought the car home (running at finish) in a staggering 91.5% of his career (champ + indy car) starts (54 of 59). They won't disrespect him, but we can hope.

Wilson - 5.5 avg finish in 4 efforts with one podium has my attention

Conway - surprisingly poor 16th and a 9th in his only two, and i am expecting much, much more from him ( you are aware that Carpenter Racing has more wins than Ganassi this year, right??) Hello.

Helio - two top 5's in 6efforts, with the rest being forgettable

Bourdais - i know i am guilty of picking on him this year, and finally Indy decided to get on board as well by putting hom on probation for the rest of the year (along with a 10k fine) Truth be known, he might surface here ( 2 wins, an 8th, and a 5th in his four attempts) Did i really just say i would entertain gambling on him?? Let me think a bit more on that.

back later...

 

[captjohn67]

wilson +2450 (0.04)
dixon +800 (0.15)

waiting on matchups...

 

[captjohn67]

Wilson -115 Bourdais - it moved to -145 in less than 5 minutes ( I'd prolly pass at that price)
Kimball -120 Marco

let's see what else they put up...

 

[captjohn67]

Hinch -105 Briscoe
Kanaan -120 Munoz

 

[captjohn67]

more than likely that'll be all. Odd that they don't have to win numbers up. Make it a good one

 

[captjohn67]

if you were to play anything, you have to play the Hinch over Briscoe play, it makes no sense whatsoever. Hinch is +1100, Briscoe is +3300, and they have Briscoe favored in the matchup?? What the hell. I think Hinch has some great value at the +1100 fwiw. The Newgarden +185 Wilson and Sato +145 Wilson are disrespectful as hell, but I'm going to pass. Good luck gentlemen.

 

[captjohn67]

well yesterday sucked. If I ever get a chance to kick Rahal in the nuts, i'll take it. He cost me a split day by crunching Kanaan from behind under caution. Not shocking given his track record. Oh well....

Kanaan +3800 (0.05)

i'll add more after qualifying

 

[captjohn67]

Kanaan -110 Rahal
Filippe +115 Huertas

 

[captjohn67]

RHR +160 Power

that should do it unless we see a Newgarden matchup...GLTA