gps_3 Week 9

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 8: 12-8 +7.7 units

2013: 75-68 +30.5 units​





Week 9:


Arkansas St/ULL U 68 (2u)
Maryland +14 (1.5u)
FAU +24' (2u)
Oregon -23 (3u)
Utah +7 (2u)
NCSt +31' (2.5u)
TCU -2 (1.5u)
Oregon St +4 (1.5u)
Idaho +41 (3u)
Missouri -3 (1.5u)
AU/FAU O 51 (3u)
Cal/Washington O 64 (3u)
Baylor -34' (3u)
Baylor/Kansas O 66 (3u)
Penn St +15 (2u)
UNC -6'
Rutgers -6'
Rutgers TT O 33' (2u)
Vanderbilt +17'
Clemson TT O 37' (3u)
Bama TT O 39 (3u)
FSU TT U 46' (3u)
Ore St TT O 26 (4u)
Baylor TT O 50 (4u)
Oregon TT O 48 (5u)

Miss St/UK U 55



 
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SEC Week 8 Recaps:

I mentioned many times this year that South Carolina had a daunting and rare 3-game SEC road trip–all vs teams which I projected to get to bowls this year. They did pass their first test with flying colors vs Arkansas but came up short vs Tennessee. UT had an 18-17 FD edge and SC had a 384-325 yard edge. SC QB Connor Shaw (? this week) was injured with about 5:00 left in the game and did not return. Mike Davis did rush for 137 yards. UT had not beaten a ranked foe since 2009. About 250 former UT players ran through the T on to the field prior to the game. The Vols took their 2nd drive 33/7pl for a 37 yard FG to lead 3-0. SC didn’t get a FD until their 3rd possession but then fumbled on the next play. SC punted on its next possession but then got a huge play with a 76 yard td pass to Damiere Byrd to actually take the lead, 7-3. UT went 75/10pl for a td and then went 61/7pl for a td and led 17-7 with 6:11 left in the half. SC missed a 45 yard FG with :54 left. In the 2H SC was intercepted but then drove 66/11pl for a td to make it 17-14. It was an odd call by Spurrier as on 4&8 at the UT45 he opted to go for it and they got a QB run by Shaw for the FD to the 36 to keep the drive alive. Had he been stopped, UT would have had the ball midfield up by 10. UT appeared to have a crucial miss. After a 46/9pl drive, they missed a 46 yard FG and SC went 70/6pl for a td and the lead, 21-17. UT drove 67/9pl but settled for a 33 yard FG with 10:11 left to pull within 1. The next 5 possessions were punts. UT took over with 2:48 left and went 63/9pl and had a 1&gl at the 2 and lined up for the 19 yard FG and banged it home for the upset.

There was a lot of talk earlier in the year from the national media about how Tyler Murphy was an upgrade at QB for Florida but their offense has been struggling as of late. Murphy hit 15-28 for just 92 yards in their loss toMissouri. Meanwhile, a rFr QB, Maty Mauk, making his first start taking on the nation’s #1 defense, was an impressive 18-36-295. Henry Josey appears to be as close to 100% as he rushed for 136 yards on just 18 carries in his first start. MO outgained UF 500-151 and it would have been a bigger blowout than 36-17, but they settled for 5 FG’s. MO knocked off its second consecutive ranked foe for the first time since 1972. I’ve mentioned many times recently on Twitter about how MO has had 4 SEC DL of the Week in the past 5 weeks and they recorded 6 sacks and had Murphy under constant pressure throughout. MO had a 200-61 yard edge at the half with UF’s only score of the half being set up by a fumbled punt which they recovered at the MO24 but they settled for a 23 yard FG. MO went on a 68/12pl drive and settled for a 19 yard FG and also had a 43 yard FG plus was intercepted at the UF25 but only led 13-3. UF got a 100 yard KR td to open the 3Q but MO went 75/5pl and 59/7pl for a td and a FG to lead 23-10. UF got as close as 23-17 after 3Q’s with a 70/6pl td drive but MO went 59/9pl for a 33 yard FG, 54/11pl for a 28 yard FG and then after recovering a fumble, got a 17 yard td run by Mauk with 6:30 left for the 36-17 final.

Vanderbilt got its first victory over Georgia in Nashville since 1991. UGA came in banged up, still missing its top 2 RB’s and 3 of its top 4 receivers but had opportunities. The Commodores lost QB Austyn Carta-Samuels (the 2nd QB UGA has KO’d in 2 weeks) in the 2Q and Patton Robinette took over. UGA got a td with :27 left in the half on 4&1 to lead 24-14 and had a 187-141 yard edge. UGA extended it with a 51/12pl drive but after a 1&gl at the 7, settled for a 23 yard FG leaving VU in the game, 27-14. The key play of the game happened when UGA fumbled the punt at its own 36 at the end of the 3Q and then the 2nd key play happened 4pl later. VU fired incomplete on 4&4 as LB Ramik Wilson lowered his shoulder into the body of the VU WR and knocked the ball loose. Amazingly, they called a targeting penalty. Naturally, they overturned the ejection but could not overturn the penalty and VU got a FD. They would convert on 4&1 and go on a 36/9pl drive for a td with 10:38 left to get back in it. VU went 60/11pl for a 40 yard FG to pull within 27-24 and then UGA’s P fumbled the snap and VU took over at the 13. On the next play the Commodores got a 13 yard td run by Jerron Seymour to lead 31-27 with 2:46 left. UGA fumbled at the end of an 8 yard gain at their own 33 with 1:59 left. VU did finish with a 337-221 yard edge.

As expected, Texas A&M and Auburn was a shootout with AU having a 615-602 yard edge and A&M a 29-27 FD edge. Johnny Manziel hit 29-38-454, despite missing a series in the 4Q with an apparent injury, but also had 2 interceptions. Mike Evans set a school record with 287 yards receiving and 4 td’s. As expected, Auburn was able to run the ball on an A&M D that came in yielding 5.7 ypc with Tre Mason rushing for 178 and Nick Marshall 100. Tied at 17, Auburn punted from its own 4 and A&M, with :36 left, got a 42 yard td pass to Evans to go up 24-17. A&M had a 330-282 yard edge at the half. After each team punted to open the 3Q, each scored a td. After an AU punt, A&M went 76/12pl. Manziel was hurt and Matt Joeckel came off the bench, fired incomplete, and they settled for a FG to go up 34-24. AU went 75/7pl for a td and A&M, with Joeckel at QB, went 3&out. AU went 69/5pl for a td to lead 38-34. Manziel came back and guided a 75/13pl drive for a td with 5:05 left but AU answered with a 75/13pl drive getting a td with 1:19 left. A&M got to the AU18 but after a sack on 4&13, Manziel was sacked for a 22 yard loss with :11 left.

There were a lot of upsets in college football this past Saturday but Alabama was not one of them. They dominated Arkansas with a 533-256 yard edge including 352-165 on the ground vs a good Hogs’ rushing team. It was the first time Bama had shutout an SEC foe 2 years in a row since 1973-’74 and they are probably still kicking themselves over the td they allowed vs Kentucky last week, which broke a streak of 15 straight quarters without allowing a score. A surprising stat was that Amari Cooper caught his first td pass of the season as he starts to gain health. He had 65 yards on 3 catches. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix returned from a 2 game suspension but they did lose Vinnie Sunseri to a leg injury (out for year). The Crimson Tide went 68/12pl and 38/5pl for td’s to lead 14-0. They punted on their 3rd possession, then went 84/5pl for a td. Ark put together a 67/12pl drive but had a 41 yard FG blocked with 2:54 left in the half and Bama went 72/5pl for a 30 yard td pass to Cooper with 1:07 left, 28-0. At the half they had a 270-137 yard edge. Ark fumbled the opening KO of the 2H and Bama went 30/3pl for a td, then went 72/8pl for another td, 42-0. After an interception, they went 3&out, but a roughing the K penalty gave them a FD and they would get a 48 yard FG, 45-0. Ark was SOD on 4&5 at the Bama15 after a 52/11pl drive with 1:58 left and then Derrick Henry, on 2&5, ripped off an 80 yard td run with :59 left for the 52-0 final.

Ole Miss came in with a banged up D missing 5 defensive starters but Bo Wallace hit 30-39-346. Zach Mettenberger had 3 crucial interceptions, but UM finished with a 525-388 yard edge and led 24-14 when LSU battled back to tie. Mettenberger came in with a 15-2 ratio and all 3 interceptions were thrown into at least double coverage. UM had almost upset LSU on the road last year and now had a crowd of 61,160–their 9th largest in school history–and it was loud throughout. LSU got a 21 yard PR to the UM38 mid-1Q but Mettenberger was intercepted in the EZ. Ole Miss went 69/17pl but settled for a 28 yard FG after a 1&gl at the 5. UM went 83/6pl and got a 3 yard td pass from Barry Brunetti to Nick Parker, 10-0. LSU appeared to answer going 69/11pl but, from the 20, Mettenberger was intercepted in the EZ. On the next possession, LSU got to the UM35 but Mettenberger was again intercepted, this time at the 11. At the half, UM had a 234-178 yard edge and led 10-0. UM opened the 3Q, after a 27 yard punt at the LSU49, with 46/8pl drive getting a 2 yard td run for a 17-0 lead. LSU began to chip away. They went 61/8pl for a td with 6:16 left in the 3Q and, after recovering a fumble, went 51/8pl for another td, 17-14 (3:09). UM went 76/7pl getting a 26 yard td run by Jaylen Walton to retake command 24-14, then forced an LSU punt. UM fumbled a punt at its own 13 but LSU would settle for a 41 yard FG after Mettenberger took a 16 yard sack on 3&4 from the 7. UM went 63/10pl but LSU blocked a FG with 6:29 left keeping them in it and appeared to get back going 80/11pl. They converted on 4&10 at the UM16 for a FD and on 2&gl Mettenberger hit a 4 yard td pass with 3:19 left. UM got 1 FD and on 3&10 a 13 yard pass for a FD. They would get 2 more FD’s and nailed a 41 yard FG with :02 left to pull out the victory


 
My SEC thoughts:

Certainly was a wild weekend in the conference, as 4 out of the 5 underdogs won straight up. The overwhelming feeling nationwide is that the SEC is down this year, and I can't argue, but I think there are some factors that play into it. One that can't be ignored is the injuries to teams like UGA, UF, and to a lesser extent, aTm. That's a lot for any college team to overcome. Whether the top teams have regressed or the lower teams have improved is a chicken or egg argument IMO, but the point is that parity is at a higher level in the SEC than at any other time in recent memory. Part of this is due to the proliferation of the hurry up spread offenses that use schemes to level the playing field. Part is due to coaching turnover as well as experienced talent turnover. The thing I take away from a weekend like last week, and the season as a whole, is that if you don't play defense, it's really hard to win all of your games.

Alabama - This team is starting to look like the teams of the past couple of years in that they flat out destroy inferior teams, because they don't let them score. Bama leads the nation in scoring defense, which is a far cry from what we thought after the aTm game. It's been against pretty terrible competition, but they are giving up 3.2 pts/game since aTm. I don't care who you are playing, that is a commitment to playing defense.

Arkansas - hot garbage. Nothing else to say

Auburn - Huge statement win for Gus. If it weren't for Pinkel, he'd be the runaway coach of the year in conference. Even though this team is 6-1 and control their own destiny in the West, I get the feeling that they are kind of paper tigers at this point. They were a great matchup for aTm, esp since aTm can't stop the run. I thought Manziel and the crowd would be too much, and they almost were, so credit to AU for the win. They have a fantastic looking DL, but their back 7 sucks. On offense, they will obliterate undisciplined defenses, but they are relegated to tricks and pace to try to tire out and frustrate good sound defenses. Luckily for them, there aren't many of those in the SEC this year.

aTm - Same story, great O, miserable D. Manziel has gone down 2 games in a row to an injury, and it makes me wonder how much he has left in the tank. His defense gives him no breaks and lets everyone they play hang around longer than they should. Could see this team dropping another game or two

Tenn - Great win for them last week. First win over a ranked conference team since Fulmer I think. They are improving, but still likely only 1, maybe 2 more wins in conference on the schedule (UK & Vandy). I could see them beating AU though

SC - Even though Spurrier completely mis-managed the end of the game, I thought SC kind of sleepwalked through the game. Talent is there, but something is missing with this team

UF - Not much to say that hasn't already been said. Offense is brutal, and now the defense is starting to have injuries take a toll. Going to be tough moving forward, definitely need the bye this week

UGA - Ditto Florida. However, UGA was terrible on defense before the injuries. Getting Gurley back will certainly help, but he doesn't tackle. Similar to aTm, I think their defense will keep everyone they play in the game until the end

Vanderbilt - Big win after being somewhat disappointing so far this season. How do they build on this? They can definitely win 3 of the next 5 and get to some crap bowl played the week after Christmas, which is still a big deal to their program. Not sure how the QB going down affects them, because he didn't look that good to begin with.

LSU - WTF? Can't believe this one. Didn't see much of this one, but did LSU not show up in the 1H? Also strange to see LSU not being able to get a stop when they need it most. Their defense needs to grow up fast with Bama looming

Ole Miss - Nice rebound after losing 3 straight. Not sure what to do with this team. My gut says they are one of about 7 teams in the SEC that could win any week, or look totally inept. I'm thinking they will be thinking of this win on into their bye next week

Nizzou - May not be a real top 5 team, but they keep winning, and the games haven't been close. Pinkel has been in this situation before in the Big12, and I think he will have this team ready to play each week. Not sure they get to Atlanta, but I'm not betting against them for now
 
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good stuff. on several of the same. and lean other SEC games you are on.

what do you make of the A&M line this week? So hard to lay 18 with that D.
 
good stuff. on several of the same. and lean other SEC games you are on.

what do you make of the A&M line this week? So hard to lay 18 with that D.

I mentioned in the what have we learned thread that I like to fade the winners and losers the week after an emotional win/loss. Well, both Vandy and aTm fall into those categories. Like you mentioned, tough to lay that many on a team that doesn't tackle. aTm let Arkansas stay close, and we've seen what kind of squad they have, but Vandy is last in conference in rushing offense, which is where aTm really struggles on defense. You'd have to think that Manziel is feeling pretty banged up and they know that winning the West is pretty much impossible, so I can't see them giving max effort here. Will Vandy spend all week patting themselves on the back enjoying the aftermath of beating UGA? My guess is that Vandy is in a better mental state than the Ags, so I lean taking the points, but will wait to see what the line does before I decide to bet it or not.

Good luck Streakin
 
thanks. it is the aggies off a loss and vandy of a rare big win that I like the most I guess. if JFF is ok and inspired, I don't think Vandy can keep up. Pretty close to hitting A&M. GL this week.
 
I don't necessarily disagree with your lean, but I hate backing a big favorite in any situation if they don't play defense. I look at the games against Ark, Ole Miss, and AU and see that aTm couldn't put them away because the defense couldn't get off the field. But, those 3 were much better at running the ball than Vanderbilt is, so maybe the Aggie defense can make some stops. My biggest concern though is the status of Manziel. 2 games in a row it appeared he suffered a major injury. He bounced back nicely, but it has to be taking a toll on him.
 
I've never seen lines in SEC this asinine or tight before..been gambling 15 years..these oddsmakers are got dingleberries up they ass.
 
agree completely on the uncertainty of how much longer he can go on. also agree on backing big faves with bad Ds......so we shall see.

you got balls backing that Idaho team. I love the spot for you, but man I think they are pretty bad. hope you hit it.
 
agree completely on the uncertainty of how much longer he can go on. also agree on backing big faves with bad Ds......so we shall see.

you got balls backing that Idaho team. I love the spot for you, but man I think they are pretty bad. hope you hit it.

100% fade of Ole Miss. If there's ever a team to relish in a big win, it's the Rebs. I don't know much about Idaho, but they can't be much worse than SE Missouri St can they? Rebs didn't crush SEMO St, and the Vandals have played Ark St and No Illy relatively close, so I don't think it's an auto blow-out for Ole Miss.

Another angle in the Vandy-aTm game, it's a 11:00 kick, which I think helps the visitor more times than not. Sumlin also said to day in the presser that he's "hopefull" that JFF will play, so even if he does, he won't be 100%. Don't let me talk you out of taking Manziel if you feel good about it though
 
I've never seen lines in SEC this asinine or tight before..been gambling 15 years..these oddsmakers are got dingleberries up they ass.

Last week's lines were crazy, and this week isn't much different. Good luck HUNT
 
100% fade of Ole Miss. If there's ever a team to relish in a big win, it's the Rebs. I don't know much about Idaho, but they can't be much worse than SE Missouri St can they? Rebs didn't crush SEMO St, and the Vandals have played Ark St and No Illy relatively close, so I don't think it's an auto blow-out for Ole Miss.

Another angle in the Vandy-aTm game, it's a 11:00 kick, which I think helps the visitor more times than not. Sumlin also said to day in the presser that he's "hopefull" that JFF will play, so even if he does, he won't be 100%. Don't let me talk you out of taking Manziel if you feel good about it though

Agree with the bet against the Rebs (on it as well) in the game against SEMSt we basically pulled much of the starters after half and didn't score in the 2h and gave up 13 for a 31-13 final. I would expect much more of the same. Anyone that is questionable or less than 100% I wouldn't expect to see much of them on the field after a comfortable lead is obtained (think 1h) ... We do have a bye week ahead but with the amount of injuries you can believe Freeze will be looking for as much rest as possible for the 1st team.

Always a good read, BOL this week :shake:
 
100% fade of Ole Miss. If there's ever a team to relish in a big win, it's the Rebs. I don't know much about Idaho, but they can't be much worse than SE Missouri St can they? Rebs didn't crush SEMO St, and the Vandals have played Ark St and No Illy relatively close, so I don't think it's an auto blow-out for Ole Miss.

Another angle in the Vandy-aTm game, it's a 11:00 kick, which I think helps the visitor more times than not. Sumlin also said to day in the presser that he's "hopefull" that JFF will play, so even if he does, he won't be 100%. Don't let me talk you out of taking Manziel if you feel good about it though

can I blame you if I don't bet A&M but do bet Idaho and lose? :)

I always like your input on SEC games, but I make my own decision at the end of the day.

Thanks for your thoughts each week.
 
saw your post in the clemson/md match up but I thought i'd ask you here..does the injury status for the terps concernyou?
 
saw your post in the clemson/md match up but I thought i'd ask you here..does the injury status for the terps concernyou?

To be honest, I don't look at that all that much. Vegas looks at stuff like that to much greater extent than I ever could, so I let the line do the talking, unless it's a late breaking scratch or something unexpected. I don't have the time to do all the research that so many on here provide, which is why I'm a member here and why I don't even attempt to bet the the opening #s. Like I said in the other thread, I'm betting against Clemson here, not necessarily on Maryland. I know that's not very scientific or anything, but that's the way I cap
 
To be honest, I don't look at that all that much. Vegas looks at stuff like that to much greater extent than I ever could, so I let the line do the talking, unless it's a late breaking scratch or something unexpected. I don't have the time to do all the research that so many on here provide, which is why I'm a member here and why I don't even attempt to bet the the opening #s. Like I said in the other thread, I'm betting against Clemson here, not necessarily on Maryland. I know that's not very scientific or anything, but that's the way I cap

oh def. not questioning your play or reasoning, just tryign to draw some conclusions and gather other opinions. much like you, i'm just a member i just like factoring in as much as i can :) cheers!
 
oh def. not questioning your play or reasoning, just tryign to draw some conclusions and gather other opinions. much like you, i'm just a member i just like factoring in as much as i can :) cheers!

Yeah I know you weren't questioning me, I just felt bad that I didn't have any better reasons for betting it.
 
Week 9 SEC thoughts:

UK +11 @ Miss St: yuck. 2 of the 3 worst teams in the SEC. Miss St is at least somewhat competitive, so I lean taking the points. Thursday night games usually favor the home team, and I imagine there will be more UK fans watching bball practice than this game

Vanderbilt +17 @ aTm: Public road dog, usually means take the home favorite, but it's hard for me to back a team that can't stop anyone. Lean Vandy here, but likely a no play. Maybe a VU TT O

Auburn -24' vs FAU: Classic let down spot for the Tigers. Also, based on where it falls on the schedule, a good time to rest starters with nagging injuries. AU has road trips to Arkansas and Tennessee on deck, and both of those are suddenly very winnable games for AU. FAU has played big programs before and likely won't be too intimidated. Taking the points here as I see it being something like a 45-24 win for AU. Also took the over because if AU covers, it will be because they score in the high 40's or low 50's

Bama -28 vs Tennessee: Like I've mentioned the last several weeks, this Bama team is starting to resemble the teams of the last couple of years where they methodically and somewhat boringly blow-out teams. This is because the defense doesn't give up much of anything. A game that is 13-3 midway through the 2nd quarter is all of the sudden 41-3 in the blink of an eye. Bama with bye then LSU on deck, so there is potential for a look ahead, but I'm sure they've heard all week about how UT almost beat UGA and then beat SC, so I think the focus will be there. I hesitate to give the points, because there is a high probability of a backdoor cover against Bama's 3rd team defense, but will look at the team totals when they are released for me to bet, but I'm guessing Bama will be 40 or 41 based on the line/total. Think Bama has little trouble getting to that number

Ole Miss -41 vs Idaho: I've talked about this in above, but another letdown spot for a team that doesn't have a lot of experience beating good teams. Betting that Ole Miss plays disinterested and fails to cover the huge #

S. Carolina +3 @ Missouri: Both teams bring backup QBs into this one. I can certainly see SC winning this game, but I'm going to continue to ride Mizzou. Been on them every week starting with Vandy, no reason to jump off yet

LSU -whatever vs Furman: Last tune up for LSU before the Bama game. Feel bad for the Paladins as there is a lot for the Tigers to work on
 
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