gps_3 Week 6

[gps_3]

Week 5: 2-2 +1.7 units

2013: 42-39-1 +18.7 units


Week 6:

Arkansas +11 (2u)
Missouri +1' (2u)
Stanford -7 (2u)
Ole Miss -2' (2u)
Bama/Ga ST U59' (4u)
Maryland +15' (2u)
Wash/Stan O 52' (3u)
Baylor/WVU O68' (3u)
tOSU/NW O60 (3u)
Iowa +1'
Virginia Tech -7'
Notre Dame +5' (2u)
Iowa St +7 (2u)
Utah +5' (2u)
Texas Tech -16' (2u)
Illinois TT O 26 (2u)
Indiana +3' (3u)

 

[gps_3]

Got really busy last week and didn't get a chance to post plays or thoughts past what I hit early in the week. Will try to do better this week. Starting your own business while working elsewhere full time is exhausting

 

[gps_3]

Week 5 SEC Notes:

South Carolina had scored 72 of their 90 points on the season in the first half of their 3 games with only 20 in the 2H, but it was the opposite here. UCFdominated the 1H leading 10-0 with a 196-164 yard edge. Things didn’t look good for the Gamecocks when starting QB Connor Shaw sprained his right shoulder at the start of the 2Q and missed the final 3Q’s (reportedly out 2-3 weeks). SC got a 53 yard td run on the 4th play of the 2H and would take the lead with 3:58 left in the 3Q capping a 97/11pl drive. After an interception they drove 34/6pl and after a fumble they drove 31/4pl to blow it open, 28-10. It was 28-18 when SC took over with 6:48 left and went 78/9pl. They got a 45 yard pass to the 2 yard line but then fumbled on the next play with 3:18 left and UCF got a 79 yard pass to Breshard Perriman and a 7 yard td pass to Rannell Hall to pull within 3 with 1:54 left. SC returned the onside kick 31 yards to the UCF15 and took a knee.


Tennessee could have turned the South Alabama game into a blowout but blew 2 scoring opportunities and it almost came back to bite them. USA took its opening possession 82/6pl for a td but UT wore them down. Trailing 7-3 the Vols went 92/9pl, 69/7pl, and 73/4pl all for td’s to lead 24-7. UT’s next drive got to the USA24 but on 3rd down they were intercepted in the endzone with 6:40 left. UT then went 74/13. On 2&gl from the 4 with :25 left in the half they were intercepted in the endzone and returned 14 yards. What could have been a 38-7 lead was just 24-7. UT opened the 3Q with a 76/6pl td drive to make it 31-7. The Jaguars forced their first punt since UT’s first drive of the game and got a 58 yard PR all the way down to the UT15. USA went 15/2pl for a td; 68/10pl for a 24 yard FG; then 37/9pl but missed a 41 yard FG. UT went for a 52 yard FG with 10:52 left and not only was it short, but USA returned it to the UT29. That 52 yarder was forced when the Vols faked a 47 yarder and were successful for a big gain but illegal procedure brought it back 5 yards. The Jaguars went 29/6pl for a td to pull within 7. USA got it back with 7:53 left on its own 13 and went 79/16pl getting a 4&gl from the 8 when they were intercepted in the endzone.

Georgia played its 3rd top 10 team in the month of September and the LSU/UGA game lived up to the hype. Zach Mettenberger hit 23-37-372 and Aaron Murray 20-34-298. For all of the talk about Murray not being able to defeat a top 10 foe, he played well and guided the game winning drive. At the half UGA had a commanding 306-133 yard and 17-7 FD edge and led 24-17. The teams traded scores on the first 3 possessions of the 2H but then LSU fumbled a punt at its 20 and on 3&11 Murray tossed a 21 yard td pass for a 34-27 lead. They scored on the next 3 possessions with UGA settling for a 38 yard FG and LSU getting a pair of td’s to take a 41-37 lead with 4:14 left. Murray then led a 75/6pl drive and had a 25 yard td pass with 1:47 left. LSU got out to its own 45 but on 4&10 fired incomplete.

Florida lost QB Jeff Driskel and DT Dominique Easley to season ending injuries within the week. Tyler Murphy got his first start and hit 15-18-156 while rushing for 36 yards on 7 carries. UF had a dominating 402-173 yard and a 22-12 FD edge. I expected a defensive struggle and it surprised me that the first 2 drives of the game both went for td’s. UF went 93/13pl for a 2 yard td run.Kentucky went 75/10pl. On 4&9, they faked a FG and K Joe Mansour took the flip over the shoulder from the holder and raced 25 yards for a td. UF missed a 53 yard FG on its 2nd drive, but went 79/3pl for a td on its 3rd and 62/9pl for a td on its 4th to lead 21-7 at half with a 261-124 yard edge. UF was intercepted at the UK24 and went 64/15pl for a 33 yard FG with 10:49 left to lead 24-7. UK’s last gasp ended on a 4&28 Hail Mary pass at the UF38.

All week long we heard about how Alabama’s defense was susceptible to a mobile QB and Ole Miss’ Bo Wallace talked about how he was confident they would score points vs Bama. Alabama finished with 434-205 yard and 21-11 FD edges becoming the first #1 ranked team to shutout a ranked team since 2001. Bama’s offense did struggle in the 1H as they settled for 3 FG’s and led 9-0 with a 171-118 yard edge. They did get a 68 yard td run by TJ Yeldon on the second play of the 3Q. Three times the Rebels went for it on 4th down and were SOD. The first came on their opening drive at the UA28, the 2nd on 4&2 at the UA8 with 3:30 left in the 3Q, and the 3rd (after an interception, started at the UA31) when they were SOD at the 18 with 12:30 left in the game. Bama added a safety with 5:43 left and a 50 yard Kenyan Drake td run one play after the free kick for the 25-0 lead. Bama was SOD at the UM9 with 2:48 left and took a knee at the UM28 to end. AJ McCarron hit 25-32 but for just 180 yards while Bo Wallace hit 17-31-159 and rushed 12 times for a net of 5 yards.

Vanderbilt’s Austyn Carta-Samuels hit 23-29-334 yards while UAB QB’s Austin Brown hit 10-20-51 and Jonathan Perry hit 9-16-155. Jonathan Krause continues to emerge as the #2 receiver for VU after Chris Boyd was booted off the team. He had 108 yards on 4 receptions. Trailing 10-3, UAB had a 1&gl at the 5 but would settle for a FG to make it 10-6. On its next offensive play VU got a 58 yard td run by Jerron Seymour with 9:04 left in the 2Q then after UAB was intercepted with 2:18 left, VU went 68/9pl for a td on a 1 yard run with :05 left in the half. VU only had a 280-205 yard edge at the half but led 24-6. UAB settled for a 37 yard FG then VU went 83/12pl, and 69/3pl for td’s to go up 38-9. UAB drove 75/5pl to pull within 21 then recovered an onside kick but was SOD on 4&10 at the VU37. VU went 63/5pl then 29/5pl (after int) for td’s in their 52-24 win.

Missouri’s 41-19 win over Arkansas St was not as easy as the final score. ASt did drive 46/9pl and 76/10pl but settled for 46 and 21 yard FG’s. MU missed a 24 yard FG in between those 2 drives and trailed 6-0. MU then went 75/5pl and 80/3 for td’s to take control 14-6 but the Red Wolves started at their 44 with 10:53 left in the 1H and converted on 3&12 then on 3&15 got a 17 yard td pass to cap a 56/11pl drive to pull within 14-13. At the half ASt had a 285-231 yard edge. The Wolves opened the 3Q with a 48/9pl drive for a 44 yard FG and a stunning 16-14 lead. MU punted on its next drive but then went 94/9pl and 87/9pl for td’s, 27-16. ASt went 59/14pl but settled for a 33 yard FG, 27-19 with 7:31 left. MU went 67/6pl for a td with 5:06 left then got an interception at the AS21 and went 21/3pl for a 5 yard td pass with 2:56 left to win by over 3 td’s. After ASt was sacked on 4&6 at its own 22, MU ended the game at the AS8 taking a knee

Texas A&M and Arkansas both played in the SWC but it was the Aggies’ first trip to Fayetteville since 1990. A&M only had a 26-23 FD edge and 523-483 yard edge as Brandon Allen returned to the lineup for UA and hit 17-36-282. A&M only led 24-20 at the half with only a 316-271 yard edge. A&M got a 34 yard IR td to open the 3Q but UA drove 75/4pl for a td to get back within 4. They exchanged td’s at the end of the 3Q to make it 38-33. A&M punted on its next possession but then went 57/7pl for a 1 yard td run with 10:08 left, 45-33. UA went 67/10pl but was SOD on 4&10 at the A&M16. UA’s last drive ended on an interception at its 45 and A&M got 1 FD to the 29 and took a knee.

 

[gps_3]

SEC thoughts:

Only watched the LSU/UGA game and Bama/Ole Miss game with any real attention, and both games were illuminating as the season starts to take shape. Odd to see the first 2 teams combine for 85 points, but with this conference being so QB driven, not surprising. My big takeaways are that UGA may have finally turned the corner on big games. Both their big wins were at home, granted, but those were games they've lost in recent years. Everything is set for them to coast to the East title, where they'll get either Bama or LSU in Atlanta. For LSU, Mettenberger continues to impress. Now, UGA's defense isn't anything to write home about, but Zach hit some big time throws. He may finally have the mental game and coaching to match his physical abilities. Not impressed with either defenses, but they were matched up against some pretty outstanding offenses and QBs that will make a lot of defenses look bad.

For Bama, the 2nd half was clearly the best they've looked as a team since the 2nd and 3rd quarters against A&M. It appears that Saban has found his grouping in the secondary which will help continuity and communication moving forward. OL still has work to do. I thought they looked better when the starting C Kelly got injured. If Cyrus Kouandijio is a top 10 pick, then so am I. Not sure if he has NFL-itis or what, but he has been a penalty machine, in addition to getting flat out pushed around by a true freshman. I don't think Bama is the best team in the country right now, but they aren't far off. Now that the defense appears to have gotten things together, the next 4 games set up well for the offense to hit their stride before the battle against LSU on Nov 9th. Ole Miss is what we all know Ole Miss to be: improving team, but not ready for the big boys yet. Hugh Freeze's coaching decisions and play calling serve as a reminder that he was coaching high school not all that long ago.

I haven't watched them at all, but Missouri is quietly undefeated and putting up some impressive offensive numbers. They haven't played anybody, but they could be a team that gives UGA some trouble. I'd wager they are better than Tennessee right now

Speaking of UT, they are still a ways from being competitive within the conference

That's it for right now, will be looking at this week's games and making plays shortly

 

[Elbutre88]

awesome info, thanks gps.

 

[gps_3]

This week's thoughts:

Bama -55' o/u 59': Georgia St is one of the two or three worst teams in FBS and will be completely overmatched here. I doubt GAST scores outside of a turnover or special teams TD, and Saban will get the starters out ASAP. I'd take GAST as the side, but this one has 52-0 written all over it

UGA -10' o/u 63' @ UT: Classic letdown spot for UGA, but I think the line reflects that line of thinking. UT isn't very good and could get blown out with a less than stellar effort from UGA. My inclination is to bet against the Dawgs, but UT won't get my money against a team that can score. Pretty high total, but this is the new SEC where defense is optional.

Ark +11 o/u 43 @ UF: I still think this is too many for UF to lay against a somewhat decent team. I'm a little higher on the Hogs than a lot, and I think they have some success running the ball here, especially with UF's injury on the DL. Ark can run and keep the clock and chains moving and stay within the number in a low scoring ugly game

LSU -9' o/u 54' @ Miss St: Another let down spot against a vastly inferior team. Miss St is bad, but I like the Prescott kid at QB, even if Auburn's defense isn't exactly a good barometer for how good someone is. At the current #, I like LSU. If it gets into double digits I'll take a look at State. Lean under

Mizzou +1' o/u 56 @ Vandy: They haven't played anybody, but Mizzou has been impressive. I've not been impressed with Vandy since the opening loss to Ole Miss. Think Mizzou can score enough to win

Ole Miss -2' o/u 56' @ AU: While the shutout of Ole Miss looks impressive (and it still is), they could have scored if their HC hadn't gone for it on 4th down multiple times. I do think Bo Wallace needs to slow down on talking about how good their offense is, but AU's defense will pose a much lesser obstacle than Bama. Maybe it's the Bama fan in me, but I still don't think AU is all that good. They covered at LSU after LSU got bored and tried to just get out of there. I think Ole Miss is farther along running their version of the HUNH than AU and they should win one that is close for a while, but eventually they pull it out

UK +21 o/u 55' @ SCAR: I'm not sure what to think about S. Carolina. They've seemed somewhat dysfunctional all season. Don't think the QB makes much difference. Clowney has been somewhat quiet, but teams are keying in on him, and he may already have one foot out the door to the NFL. UK is a great team to get it together against, so it's possible that SC looks more like the team we all thought they were. Of course, they may just plod along uninspired and win one that is much closer than it should be. Pass on this one

 

[Streakin]

with ya on the Hogs.. GL

 

[Silkydiamonds]

My SEC ear to the concrete guy. Thank you!

 

[dilaudid8]

gps gl

 

[gps_3]

Thanks bros. Good luck this week

 

[bloodhound]

A Great read

Thanks for posting gps

GL whis wk

 

[Play2win]

Seeing SEC games the same and agree on Iowa. BOL :cheers:

 

[gps_3]

bloodhound:shake:

Took both home dogs tonight. Missed the good numbers on both, but see it 1-1 at worst

 

[HUNT]

great stuff....gl bro.

 

[gps_3]

Thanks Hunt, good luck on your plays today. Considering making a play on LSU now that it's hit 7