Some thoughts on SEC games:
Would be reasonable to expect letdown performances for Bama and aTm. For Bama, it is the first home game, but the school has suspended block seating in the student section in anticipation of lack of interest in the game. The weather is also supposed to be rainy, so I can see a conservative offensive game plan for the Tide. This week at practice, a ton of young guys have been getting first team reps, especially in the secondary. Throw in that CSU's coach is our ex-OC, and it all points to a comfortable Bama win, but maybe not a huge blow out. 41-13 seems like a pretty reasonable score. With poor weather, Saban will likely get AJ, TJ, Cooper, etc out of the game as soon as he can to avoid injury, and he doesn't want to run it up on his buddy Jum McElwain. Only issue is that Bama's 4th string RB might be one of the best RBs CSU sees this year. If this line creeps over 40, I'll be on the Rams. At no point will I consider a bet on Bama, unless it's a team total. Under might be worth a look.
Texas A&M certainly left it all out on the field last weekend. Manziel was transcendent, if not a little lucky on some plays, and Evans is a beast. SMU shouldn't pose too much of a problem, but aTm couldn't keep an Ivy League team under 350 yards of offense, so I expect SMU to score. aTm will also score, but will it be enough to cover? Or will the defense stop them enough to cover? I lean taking the points here, but leaving it at 28' seems to be begging for SMU money. Pass on line, and likely the total. 78 is really high, but no way I bet under. SMU team total over might be a play
Miss St has been discussed all over the board, and my thoughts are that they are the worst team in the West, possibly by a large margin. At 2 TDs, Troy is very attractive.
17' seems like too many points for a team with Florida's offense to lay. Tenn got spanked last week, but did anyone expect different? Including Tennessee? Oregon's offense is a matchup nightmare for any team, but especially a young and not so talented defense like Tenn. Driskell is more their speed. Line has moved under 17. If it goes back, I'll look at taking the Vols. No way I can back UF to score points.
Vandy has been discussed. Blowout city
Like the UT/UF game, 17' points seems like a big spread in the AU/LSU game. The more I look into it, the more I like LSU to win by 3+ scores. AU crept by Miss St last week, but it may be AU's only conference win this season. Despite hiring offensive guru Gus Malzahn, AU's offense has been mediocre and turnover prone. Their defense is crap, particularly the back 7, and will be missing a starter in the secondary for this game. That may not matter, because he sucks anyway. LSU on the other hand, has seen a level of offensive consistency they haven't seen in years. Their tall and athletic WRs will pose matchup issues for AU, as will a steady diet of their RB stable. LSU's defense has taken a couple of steps back from the beast units they've had the last few seasons, but they are athletic and talented. Gus' MO has been to have some new wrinkles for the big games, so I could see AU scoring early and even having a lead. As long as Mettenberger doesn't panic, LSU should be able to wear them down and win comfortably. My initial thought was to take the points, but I don't make a habit of betting against LSU at home at night. No bet for me right now, I want to see where the line goes.
Taking a flyer on Arkansas. They're running the ball well right now, so I'm not as concerned about the QB situation. Rutgers has great numbers against the run right now, but we should be able to find out if that defense is for real this weekend
All I know about Indiana is that they have a good offense and a terrible defense. Pinkel on the hot seat (supposedly) and with an offense that can score. Lean the road favorite, but not playing the game unless it's to take the over
