gps_3 Week 4 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 38-32

Locked In:

UK/Mizzou U 44
Texas Tech +7
BC/NIU U 47
Arizona St +5'
Arizona +4
Washington +4
Oregon -12
Michigan -5'
aTm -7
Florida +1
Memphis TT O 38'
UVA/Boise U 49
Miss St +3 & ML +130
Alabama U 55

Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (3-0)
AU U 8' +130 (2-1)
TCU U 10 +115 (3-0)
UGA O 9 -140 (3-0)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (3-0)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (3-0)
UCLA U 9 -125 (3-0)
Wisconsin O 9 -115 (2-1)
 
Last edited:
Week 4 SEC:

Missouri @ UK (-3)

Vandy @ Ole Miss (-24')

aTm vs Arkansas (+7) game in Arlington, TX

Tennessee @ UF (-1')

LSU @ Syracuse (game currently off the board at my book)

Miss St @ AU (-2')

Alabama (-38) vs La Monroe

UGA vs Southern (no line yet)

Let's discuss...
 
I don't think LSU will take a breather here in the "bad" schedule spot...auburn was revenge game and it's an easy stretch of games here (mentioned in the week 4 discussion)...too many mismatches everywhere and even if they run the ball it's their strength IMO
 
Spent all day Sunday recovering and was really busy yesterday, so getting a late start. Will try to get some thoughts down some point tonight. Good luck to everyone
 
BOL GPS

Regarding Tamu/Arky...really like what chavis is doing at TAMU, neutral site game and arky doesn't play a lick of defense..Kingsbury/Mahomes ripped that secondary apart.
 
BOL GPS

Regarding Tamu/Arky...really like what chavis is doing at TAMU, neutral site game and arky doesn't play a lick of defense..Kingsbury/Mahomes ripped that secondary apart.

As of week 4, Arkansas and Auburn are clearly the worst teams in the West. By a good margin. I'm guessing they are better than they've played, but they are both on the brink of the season going off the rails. My first thought was that the line seems fishy, but my PR only have aTm at -6, so who knows? No way I can back Arky though
 
Played these the other day, so lines may be stale. Been slammed at work and home all week, not much time.

UK/Mizzou U 44
Texas Tech +7
BC/NIU U 47
Arizona St +5'
Arizona +4
Washington +4
 
Will be around more this afternoon to post some thoughts and plays. Won't recap last week's bizarre loss to Ole Miss too much, I'm sure it has been discussed enough. But one piece of Alabama news is that there are pretty substantial rumors that things behind the scenes aren't so good concerning our most controversial staff member. It's not surprising really, but it may have gotten so bad that there may be changes mid-season, possibly even today. It's all whispers and innuendo as of right now, but those whispers are getting louder
 
hot damn kiffin getting it in. the debate i saw was whether it was another coach's wife or Saban's daughter which is why I thought it was a mega troll
 
hot damn kiffin getting it in. the debate i saw was whether it was another coach's wife or Saban's daughter which is why I thought it was a mega troll


Definitely not Saban's daughter. Don't think it is a coach's wife either. Hearing that it's a booster's wife. And not the kind of booster that buys season tickets every year, but one that gets things named after him.

Seriously doubt Kiffin leaves before end of the season, but what I'm hearing is that he needs to fall in line with what Nick wants on offense, or he will lose his duties as play-caller. What Lane does with that, only time will tell
 
Really interested in a couple of these games.

Obviously as a fan, I would like to see how Alabama responds to a loss. Been a while since we lost one this early in the season. Still have a great opportunity to play ourselves back into the playoff picture, but it would have been better to lose to UGA next week than Ole Miss, but I don't think the season is lost as so many of our fans seem to believe. Hopefully we will see some stability at QB which should lead to a more defined identity and consistent play-calling. I expect the defense to continue to play well. Being a sandwich game, I would normally expect a lethargic effort, but coming off a loss I could see there being a little more pep in the step this Saturday. And plus, it's a revenge game

Ole Miss is in another sandwich spot, coming off a huge win and a road trip to Florida next week. I mentioned in another thread that I was burned in this same situation last season, so I can't advocate a play on Vandy, but it wouldn't surprise me for this to be within the number. I kind of like the under here, as I think Vandy's defense is pretty good, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired and Ole Miss could win something like 34-13, or blow them out 45-7 style

Mizzou/UK looks like a dud and a positioning game for who finishes 6th in the East. How Mizzou is ranked is beyond me, but the more we doubt this team, the more likely they are to win the East

UGA/Southern...snooze. UGA just wants to score some points and get the 2nd team in there. Saw a line of UGA -56, like Southern at that number

Tennessee has lost to Florida 10 straight times. That is amazing to me. For me, taking the better defense at home is a no brainer, but I think Tennessee is the better team, and this is a must-win for Butch Jones. That's not a solid capping angle there, but I do believe Tenn has had this game circled all season because this game is much more winnable than their other big rival games against UGA and @ Alabama.

Could see the LSU game staying within the number. Long trip for an early game, weird venue to be playing, LSU coming off big rivalry win, etc. But, that running game should travel, so who knows. Will be a pass for me

I'm going to pay to see Arkansas play a good game. That line stinks to high heaven, but I can't find any other reason to think that Arkansas can stay on the field with aTm. Arkansas is 10th (!) in the SEC in rush yards/game. What? I think their only chance in this one is to get back to that power running game, put together some 15 play drives that keep aTm's offense on the sideline, and hope that they get some turnovers, or that Allen plays a bad game.

And probably the most interesting game to me is Miss St @ AU. Aub has been a train-wreck so far, especially compared to pre-season expectations. The defense is actually worse than last season, and with Lawson out, I can't imagine they'll be much better until some of their younger guys get some more experience. I wasn't ready to hand Jeremy Johnson the Heisman in August, but I didn't expect him to lead AU to 13th in the conference in total yards. I get that they are at home, but I don't see how they are favorites starting a guy who has never taken a live college snap and has no defense to help him out. I think Dak will have a big day both running and passing. Miss St always plays AU tough and while I think AU still has more overall talent, I think these teams are fairly even. I think this game decides who this AU team is. Are they really a potentially elite team that has just had a bad start and will eventually get it together, like some in the media are still saying? Or will they fall off the rails and be a .500 type team? Either way, I think one of these teams will cover by at least 2 scores, and if I end up putting money on it, it will be on the better QB.
 
Really interested in a couple of these games.

Obviously as a fan, I would like to see how Alabama responds to a loss. Been a while since we lost one this early in the season. Still have a great opportunity to play ourselves back into the playoff picture, but it would have been better to lose to UGA next week than Ole Miss, but I don't think the season is lost as so many of our fans seem to believe. Hopefully we will see some stability at QB which should lead to a more defined identity and consistent play-calling. I expect the defense to continue to play well. Being a sandwich game, I would normally expect a lethargic effort, but coming off a loss I could see there being a little more pep in the step this Saturday. And plus, it's a revenge game

Ole Miss is in another sandwich spot, coming off a huge win and a road trip to Florida next week. I mentioned in another thread that I was burned in this same situation last season, so I can't advocate a play on Vandy, but it wouldn't surprise me for this to be within the number. I kind of like the under here, as I think Vandy's defense is pretty good, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired and Ole Miss could win something like 34-13, or blow them out 45-7 style

Mizzou/UK looks like a dud and a positioning game for who finishes 6th in the East. How Mizzou is ranked is beyond me, but the more we doubt this team, the more likely they are to win the East

UGA/Southern...snooze. UGA just wants to score some points and get the 2nd team in there. Saw a line of UGA -56, like Southern at that number

Tennessee has lost to Florida 10 straight times. That is amazing to me. For me, taking the better defense at home is a no brainer, but I think Tennessee is the better team, and this is a must-win for Butch Jones. That's not a solid capping angle there, but I do believe Tenn has had this game circled all season because this game is much more winnable than their other big rival games against UGA and @ Alabama.

Could see the LSU game staying within the number. Long trip for an early game, weird venue to be playing, LSU coming off big rivalry win, etc. But, that running game should travel, so who knows. Will be a pass for me

I'm going to pay to see Arkansas play a good game. That line stinks to high heaven, but I can't find any other reason to think that Arkansas can stay on the field with aTm. Arkansas is 10th (!) in the SEC in rush yards/game. What? I think their only chance in this one is to get back to that power running game, put together some 15 play drives that keep aTm's offense on the sideline, and hope that they get some turnovers, or that Allen plays a bad game.

And probably the most interesting game to me is Miss St @ AU. Aub has been a train-wreck so far, especially compared to pre-season expectations. The defense is actually worse than last season, and with Lawson out, I can't imagine they'll be much better until some of their younger guys get some more experience. I wasn't ready to hand Jeremy Johnson the Heisman in August, but I didn't expect him to lead AU to 13th in the conference in total yards. I get that they are at home, but I don't see how they are favorites starting a guy who has never taken a live college snap and has no defense to help him out. I think Dak will have a big day both running and passing. Miss St always plays AU tough and while I think AU still has more overall talent, I think these teams are fairly even. I think this game decides who this AU team is. Are they really a potentially elite team that has just had a bad start and will eventually get it together, like some in the media are still saying? Or will they fall off the rails and be a .500 type team? Either way, I think one of these teams will cover by at least 2 scores, and if I end up putting money on it, it will be on the better QB.


Fournette will be managed this year Les said, not that cuse will stop their 2nd and 3rd string but fournette won't be running alot late if they are up...
 
Fournette will be managed this year Les said, not that cuse will stop their 2nd and 3rd string but fournette won't be running alot late if they are up...

Yeah I think everything here points to a Syracuse cover, except for the massive talent disparity. LSU will have a super conservative offensive game plan and I could easily see LSU kind of sleepwalking through this one, but still win comfortably. Can't see myself getting involved here
 
Dak rushed for 5.8 per last year ( 121 total yds ) and i look forward to seeing that prop. As much as this pains me to say it, i think Auburn will be fortunate to go 2-6 in conf play. Good luck this weekend.
 
Teams should stack the DL on the defensive right side/opponents offensive left side .. against LSU. Make them run right and not left.
 
Fournette will be managed this year Les said, not that cuse will stop their 2nd and 3rd string but fournette won't be running alot late if they are up...

the other 2 guys that will run (Guice and Williams) would start on most teams.

Guice especially. Cuse has the number 3 rated run defense in the country. That will likely drop after this week, but many Tiger fans think that this will be the game where Harris may sling it a bit.....who knows though?

GL guys.
 
I've been thinking about it, and have decided I can't lay points with Tenn on the road in the swamp. Changed bet to Florida +1
 
tOSU TT U 48
Rice TT O 21
Alabama TT O 45'
Washington TT O 30
 
Back
Top