gps_3 Week 3 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making

Week 2: 11-12

2016: 30-20-1

Week 3:

ECU +3.5
Nebraska -3
App St +3.5
Michigan St +7.5
aTm +3.5
Missouri +7
South Florida -14.5
Miss St +14
USC +9
FSU/Ville OV 65
TCU -24
Mizzou/UGA UN 56
WKU -17.5
Alabama/OM UN 54.5
Houston TT OV 36.5
AU/aTm UN 54.5
TCU TT OV 43

Season bets:

JT Barrett to win Heisman +1500
Miss St ov 6' wins (1-1)
USC ov 7' wins (1-1)
Utah ov 7' wins (2-0)
Kentucky un 4' wins (0-2)
Arkansas ov 7' wins (2-0)
 
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A lot to discuss this week. Here are my week 3 SEC PR lines:

Vanderbilt +9 @ Georgia Tech
Kentucky -14 vs New Mexico St
Arkansas -28.5 vs Texas St
Tennessee -18 vs Ohio
Auburn -.5 vs aTm
Alabama -6 @ Ole Miss
UGA -.5 @ Missouri
LSU -10 vs Mississippi St
Florida -34.5 vs North Texas
South Carolina +1 vs East Carolina

Last week was one of those weeks where I didn't like a lot of the lines from the start but I forced some bets. Had more bets that weren't posted and was lucky to finish the weekend around even. Hope that's out of my system. Will be back with thoughts later. Keep the comments and thoughts coming guys, really enjoy reading what y'all are bringing to the thread. Good luck to everyone
 
Whew don't like seeing cocks +1 in your PR but makes sense. I knew that line was a joke opening at +6
 
I'm not making traditional power rankings anymore but I'll go ahead and post what I made lines and totals:

Ohio @ UT (Noon) Vols -27.5/55
Vandy @ GT (12:30) GT -4/43
Bama @ Miss (3:30) Bama -13.5/54.5
ECU @ USCe (4:00) USCe -4/45 (Tough total, IMO)
NMSU @ UK (4:00) No Idea
Miss ST @ LSU (7:00) LSU -10/51.5 (Assuming Purdue fella)
aTm @ Auburn (7:00) aTm -2.5/51
N Tex @ UF (7:30) No Idea
Tex St @ Arky (7:30) No Idea
UGA @ Mizzou (7:30) UGA -4/48

Bama is my only side I took in SEC. Couple total of interest to me we will see tonight. My numbers say I should play aTm, my gut says I shouldn't so I prob won't. I didn't get to watch as much this past weekend so will prob catch up on some reading and watching and will post any observations/thoughts I have throughout week.
 
The SEC needs to do something about the TV coverage on Saturdays. I wanted to watch some other teams Saturday night, but there were 6 teams all playing separate games starting at 6. I jumped around a bunch and feel like I didn't watch any of them. Something I may try to do is put a Buy, Sell or Hold thing here so I don't have to take the time for long write ups, especially if I can't watch the games I want to discuss. So I'll post them here and y'all feel free to agree, disagree and add to the discussion. I'm approaching this on do I Buy, Sell or Hold last week's performance as an indication of how good the teams are.

Buy: Arkansas, Florida, Mizzou, Miss St, aTm

I don't think Arkansas can win the West, but as I mentioned in the preseason thread, I think they will go a long way toward determining the winner. Florida is every bit a contender in the East, and as of right now, I think they are the favorite, granted they haven't played anyone of note. Mizzou I think is firmly in the 4th spot in the East and can surprise someone, possibly this week. Miss St is not as bad as the team that lost to USA, but they will be in a dog fight at the bottom of the West. Nervous about buying aTm, because I've seen this movie before. But, it would be completely normal and understandable for them to sleep through the game against Prairie View. Didn't watch game and I know that PV is traditionally a really bad team, but the score indicates that both offense and defense at least showed up, which is more than I can say about some teams with similar opponents

Sell: LSU, Kentucky

Not too much to say about UK. They are not good. I am not feeling confident about Stoops' future there. LSU is dysfunctional. They did the right thing by replacing Harris, and Etling started out nice, but the second half was more of the same we've seen for the last few years. Maybe it was the weather delay that threw them off, and not having Fournette available is clearly a step down, but they should have come out with their pants on fire and used their far superior talent to crush Jax St.

Hold: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, UGA, Vandy, S. Carolina, Ole Miss

Nothing I saw or read concerning these teams was enough for me to change my feelings on them. Will certainly learn more this weekend. Got to feel a little relieved if you're AU having a game that looked like a Gus Malzahn offense. UGA was dangerously close to sleep walking straight to a loss. Was expected for them to come out flat being a young team coming off a big win, but sheesh. The scoreboard looks a lot better for Tennessee than what actually transpired, but Jones made the right call to let Dobbs beat them with his legs because I don't think you can depend on him to win a game throwing, and he'll have to eventually. Alabama, Vandy and SC are kind of just what we think they are at this point. Will have some more Alabama thoughts later, but I think it's clear that Hurts is the guy at QB moving forward, and Saban's little tirade was directed at the players to stop patting themselves on the back because we're about to go up against a team that's beaten two years in a row
 
When reading my brain was like, Mizzou #4 in east, no way, they aren't very good. Then the other portion of my brain clicked on and thought about the east and immediately agreed. The bottom of the east is as bad as I can remember anytime in recent memory.

I saw enough of Miss St to say this, and it fits with what my expectation was preseason, Fitzgerald is without question the best QB for them moving forward. He throws better than most high school option QB and when you can run like this at his size, well, that isn't teachable. In re-evaluating my lines I made earlier, I made LSU too long at a full 10 it prob should be closer to 7.5.http://www.espn.com/college-football/video?gameId=400868987 (Bottom right corner under videos the 74 yarder)
 
Here are my thoughts on taking Bama this week:

I don't know that any regular season game has meant more to Saban than this one. I haven't necessarily read any quotes that lead me to believe that but in following his time at Alabama it's easy to know he doesn't take a loss to any opponent well let alone 2 in a row to a team/coach which I'm pretty sure has never happened before until Ole Miss. He has a great track record of avenging losses and I think he sees a great opportunity to do it here.

I'll start with this - I think a combination of the switch in recruiting philosophy to get freakish speed on the DL and Pruitt taking control of the defense has converged into a thing of beauty. The pass rush last year and this year is well documented and it's really only coming from a front 4. In other words, you have the best group of pass rushers in the country coming full bore with the best secondary in the country locking down receivers. Bama has had the best secondary unit several times in past few years but never a group that could disrupt with four like this. For me, this is at the core of why I took Bama -9.5. Ole Miss can't run the ball and their remodeled OL has been really bad so far. Look at the disruption caused by the FSU DL in the 2H of that game. If they can't run and your OL is so ineffective that Kelly doesn't have time to throw the ball it just spells bad news for your success rate on offense. That spells extra bad news when you have your worst defense in several seasons that has already been plagued by injury and has already been on the field as much as any in country (I didn't look that up but maybe Ga St is the only other that sticks out to me who may have been on field as long as they have). The only position group on the OM defense I like is the DL. I do think they have a chance to disrupt and the Bama OL is still a work in progress itself, while not near the level of OM. OM has some really nice looking young WR but they look like freshman and to expect them to create space in this secondary, in the immortal words of Kevin McAllister, "I DON"T THINK SO". Bama got a great test last week schematically in hosting WKU. Bama gave up a 70 yard trick play flea flicker which accounted for 1/3 of the receiving yardage that WKU managed for the entire game. If you like Advanced stat metrics, WKU's success rate% last game was 27 - to put that into perspective, Prarie View's was 24 against aTm in the 67-0 loss. There was just no efficiency for a passing attack that has little/no threat of a legit run game against this type of defense. I believe that Bama has and will continue to improve in 3rd and long, or 3rd and Kirby as it his affectionately been named in Tuscaloosa, and if Bama stops giving up off the head deflected bounce passes for TD I don't see a single team on their schedule that rates to get past 20 points. I expect a solid mix of run and pass early for Bama and as the OM defense gasses, we see more of the traditional Bama 4Q ram it down your throat we are accustomed to seeing to salt this one away. very few instances I would lay this kind of road chalk with any SEC team but I absolutely love the matchups and intangibles in this game - i really can't think of a matchup that I don't really like for Alabama in this. Maybe Hurts plays scared and loose and Kelly finds a way to pull a rabbit out of his hat but I'm betting against both of these confidently.
 
Also I fact checked myself - lowest time of possession so far this season:

1. Kansas
2. Ole Miss
3. Akron
4. Georgia State
5. Northwestern
 
I can't lay 10 points on a true freshman QB making his first start on the road against a team of this quality, but I hope you are right. I think the under deserves a strong look, especially if it's in the high 50's
 
gps_3 said:
I can't lay 10 points on a true freshman QB making his first start on the road against a team of this quality, but I hope you are right. I think the under deserves a strong look, especially if it's in the high 50's
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I hear you. I don't think they will make a big mistake there. I can't see it opening higher than 57 and by the chance most folk can get to it you're prob gonna smack dab at 55. Even at 52, that forecasts a 31-21 game. I'll take OM TT U21 all day.
 
Auburn/aTm - Perception is prob a big thing for me in this game as I knew there was a chance this one could be totaled a bit high due to both teams being known for their offense and loathed for their defense. Thing is, both defenses are the strengths of these teams, specifically the DL, and I don't particularly care for either teams OL at this point in the season. I had the Auburn under last week as well and that turned out to be foolish as we got to see just how far Arkansas State has fallen off. Auburn didn't punt in the game and went nuts 8ypp, 700+ yards and ruthless efficiency. Easy to forget the mess we saw week 1 against Clemson. I'm pretty comfortable in assuming that aTm will provide a challenge more similar to Clemson (13 pts, 3.64 ypp, 25% success rate) than Ark St. As for the offense I do think Gus at least figured out to just leave one guy in there pretty much and went with White to try and utilize his ability to complete a forward pass which neither other guy has shown the ability to do. I just don't think White is any good and I mentioned the poor matchup for them on the line and I think this is a ugly, hard hitting game with plenty of negative plays. aTm I'm still not sold on Knight at QB. He appeared timid in the pocket most of the game against UCLA and his desire to drop back and run backwards doesn't seem like a good long-term strategy. Not much to glean from their last game other than it's good to see what I believe to be a very good defense come out and gobble up an inferior team. The aTm DL is as good as anybody in getting into the backfield and I believe they have made and will continue to make huge strides in rush defense this year. I do have some concerns with the bet: 1) Pace - It was hard for me to make this total in the 40's simply due to the pace at which both teams have shown comfortability in playing at. Both teams are top 25% nationally in plays per game and so getting 160 plays run doesn't seem too unlikely. Why I think that could end up being lower is because Auburn tends to run more plays against inferior opposition simply because so much of it is predicated on positive plays and I think they rate to have less positive plays than they will on average. 2) The WR group for aTm are really good. I trust Knight more than White and he has so much better support around him so if they can get the ball on edge to their WR they are capable of big plays. 3) In general, I prefer not to bet on games play at Auburn. I don't have a documented track record but I have prob lost more than I've won. I'm pretty sure the stadium was built on some type of indian or witch doctor burial ground because there is almost always some crazy types of voodoo that happens at that place. If you're an SEC fan, chances are you know what I'm talking about. I went under 54 but that was pretty much my target number I don't think I would take it at any lesser number.
 
i'm confused as hell on that auburn game. tamu's DL vs auburn's offense is enough for me to have tamu favored, but trevor knight is trevor knight and gus always seems to corn hole me. i'm at a loss.

probably gonna lay off, just really interested in how this plays out.
 
It will be interesting to see how Gus manages Sean White the runner moving forward. He is not a big guy, and he's not particularly elusive, so I would imagine they will want him to receive as few hits as possible. aTm has some serious dudes on that DL that would keep me up at night if I'm Gus, knowing how small and hittable White is, and especially knowing what's waiting on the bench behind him
 
I only saw the first qtr of the Ags which was before they exploded. I laughed as the ag boards lit up with "how can we get that qb from pvam?"
He was good from what I saw.
Goes to show there's not a lot of confidence n Trevor
 
pressitup said:
I only saw the first qtr of the Ags which was before they exploded. I laughed as the ag boards lit up with "how can we get that qb from pvam?"
He was good from what I saw.
Goes to show there's not a lot of confidence n Trevor
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Trevor got a lot of mileage out of his performance against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. And OU had installed a completely new offense between the last game and the bowl, so we had no film on it. Once teams got film, he was less effective. I'm not writing him off by any means, but I don't think he is as dynamic as some of the guys aTm has had. However, he seems much more stable and mature, which is what I think aTm needs
 
CrimsonK said:
Auburn/aTm - Perception is prob a big thing for me in this game as I knew there was a chance this one could be totaled a bit high due to both teams being known for their offense and loathed for their defense. Thing is, both defenses are the strengths of these teams, specifically the DL, and I don't particularly care for either teams OL at this point in the season. I had the Auburn under last week as well and that turned out to be foolish as we got to see just how far Arkansas State has fallen off. Auburn didn't punt in the game and went nuts 8ypp, 700+ yards and ruthless efficiency. Easy to forget the mess we saw week 1 against Clemson. I'm pretty comfortable in assuming that aTm will provide a challenge more similar to Clemson (13 pts, 3.64 ypp, 25% success rate) than Ark St. As for the offense I do think Gus at least figured out to just leave one guy in there pretty much and went with White to try and utilize his ability to complete a forward pass which neither other guy has shown the ability to do. I just don't think White is any good and I mentioned the poor matchup for them on the line and I think this is a ugly, hard hitting game with plenty of negative plays. aTm I'm still not sold on Knight at QB. He appeared timid in the pocket most of the game against UCLA and his desire to drop back and run backwards doesn't seem like a good long-term strategy. Not much to glean from their last game other than it's good to see what I believe to be a very good defense come out and gobble up an inferior team. The aTm DL is as good as anybody in getting into the backfield and I believe they have made and will continue to make huge strides in rush defense this year. I do have some concerns with the bet: 1) Pace - It was hard for me to make this total in the 40's simply due to the pace at which both teams have shown comfortability in playing at. Both teams are top 25% nationally in plays per game and so getting 160 plays run doesn't seem too unlikely. Why I think that could end up being lower is because Auburn tends to run more plays against inferior opposition simply because so much of it is predicated on positive plays and I think they rate to have less positive plays than they will on average. 2) The WR group for aTm are really good. I trust Knight more than White and he has so much better support around him so if they can get the ball on edge to their WR they are capable of big plays. 3) In general, I prefer not to bet on games play at Auburn. I don't have a documented track record but I have prob lost more than I've won. I'm pretty sure the stadium was built on some type of indian or witch doctor burial ground because there is almost always some crazy types of voodoo that happens at that place. If you're an SEC fan, chances are you know what I'm talking about. I went under 54 but that was pretty much my target number I don't think I would take it at any lesser number.
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The bolded is why I thought Dabo was insane to not kick the FG in week one. Or, maybe he knew that if he did attempt it, AU would block it and return for a TD, in which case he's brilliant. But that voodoo is exactly why I rate them as one of the top 5 HFA in all of NCAA
 
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Adding:

ECU +3.5
Nebraska -3
App St +3.5
Michigan St +7.5
aTm +3.5
Missouri +7
 
gps_3 said:
Adding:

ECU +3.5
Nebraska -3
App St +3.5
Michigan St +7.5
aTm +3.5
Missouri +7
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I was eyeballin sparty myself. Coming off a bye (for some reason), looks like strength on strength with Domer O vs Sparty D. Think o'connor can have enough success through the air to keep it within a td.
 
If I can get Sparty getting points, I'm taking them more times than not.
 
gps_3 said:
The bolded is why I thought Dabo was insane to not kick the FG in week one. Or, maybe he knew that if he did attempt it, AU would block it and return for a FG, in which case he's brilliant. But that voodoo is exactly why I rate them as one of the top 5 HFA in all of NCAA
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this was literally his reasoning when asked by svp after the game.
 
If I can get 14/14' with Miss St I'm in. It's trending that way and 14' was the GOY line so I'm hoping I can get a little extra uptick.

I also think it's totaled low with the QB bump both teams should get. I feel like their games are either really ugly or really fun to watch.

On Mizzou/UGA - This total is getting bet up again like crazy. Give me another point on or across 56 and I'm in on the under there. Sure, Mizzou is gonna be a lot pacier but they still stink on offense and the UGA defense (3 of 4 Nicholls scoring drives pretty much started in their red zone) is far ahead of the offense at this point. Tell me which team is getting to 30 here...? UGA defense superior to WVU and Mizzou ran 100 plays at less than 4 ypp and scored 11 points. I am pretty much a Mizzou totals expert after being 2-0 on the year :cigarguy:

I agree with you G on App St. I havent played them yet but prob will. I bet the U54 there and slightly preferred that to the App St side, especially with rain forecasted.

I had the ECU game as a coin flip when I took USCe U5 wins so I'm rooting with you there
 
CrimsonK said:
Here are my thoughts on taking Bama this week:

I don't know that any regular season game has meant more to Saban than this one. I haven't necessarily read any quotes that lead me to believe that but in following his time at Alabama it's easy to know he doesn't take a loss to any opponent well let alone 2 in a row to a team/coach which I'm pretty sure has never happened before until Ole Miss. He has a great track record of avenging losses and I think he sees a great opportunity to do it here.

I'll start with this - I think a combination of the switch in recruiting philosophy to get freakish speed on the DL and Pruitt taking control of the defense has converged into a thing of beauty. The pass rush last year and this year is well documented and it's really only coming from a front 4. In other words, you have the best group of pass rushers in the country coming full bore with the best secondary in the country locking down receivers. Bama has had the best secondary unit several times in past few years but never a group that could disrupt with four like this. For me, this is at the core of why I took Bama -9.5. Ole Miss can't run the ball and their remodeled OL has been really bad so far. Look at the disruption caused by the FSU DL in the 2H of that game. If they can't run and your OL is so ineffective that Kelly doesn't have time to throw the ball it just spells bad news for your success rate on offense. That spells extra bad news when you have your worst defense in several seasons that has already been plagued by injury and has already been on the field as much as any in country (I didn't look that up but maybe Ga St is the only other that sticks out to me who may have been on field as long as they have). The only position group on the OM defense I like is the DL. I do think they have a chance to disrupt and the Bama OL is still a work in progress itself, while not near the level of OM. OM has some really nice looking young WR but they look like freshman and to expect them to create space in this secondary, in the immortal words of Kevin McAllister, "I DON"T THINK SO". Bama got a great test last week schematically in hosting WKU. Bama gave up a 70 yard trick play flea flicker which accounted for 1/3 of the receiving yardage that WKU managed for the entire game. If you like Advanced stat metrics, WKU's success rate% last game was 27 - to put that into perspective, Prarie View's was 24 against aTm in the 67-0 loss. There was just no efficiency for a passing attack that has little/no threat of a legit run game against this type of defense. I believe that Bama has and will continue to improve in 3rd and long, or 3rd and Kirby as it his affectionately been named in Tuscaloosa, and if Bama stops giving up off the head deflected bounce passes for TD I don't see a single team on their schedule that rates to get past 20 points. I expect a solid mix of run and pass early for Bama and as the OM defense gasses, we see more of the traditional Bama 4Q ram it down your throat we are accustomed to seeing to salt this one away. very few instances I would lay this kind of road chalk with any SEC team but I absolutely love the matchups and intangibles in this game - i really can't think of a matchup that I don't really like for Alabama in this. Maybe Hurts plays scared and loose and Kelly finds a way to pull a rabbit out of his hat but I'm betting against both of these confidently.
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Agree with everything you said here. I'm rolling with the Tide huge this week, and will most likely jump on whatever the 2nd half number is for the third week in a row. Ole Miss version 2016 is a thin shell of Ole Miss version 2015. Ole Miss simply does not have depth to withstand the onslaught for 4 quarters.

I also have TAMU/Auburn as being a low-scoring game, but I doubt I'll pull the trigger.
 
Glad to hear your on a similar wavelength on that game, Jimmy.

Well, I didn't have to wait long I got Miss ST +14.5 -115 and Miz/UGA U56.5. From my lips to the oddsmakers ears.

One other thing to note on the Mizzou/UGA game... I'm not naive that things aren't different this year, but I just wouldn't be lining up to be the over. The box score below is last year's 9-6 final. UGA homered in the 8th to win it

[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 355"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: thin solid rgb(203, 204, 206);">[TR="class: header"]
[TH="align: left"]Matchup[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]
i
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]
i
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]2-13[/TD]
[TD]9-19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]0-1[/TD]
[TD]0-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]298[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]11-26[/TD]
[TD]23-32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]5.5[/TD]
[TD]5.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]1.0[/TD]
[TD]2.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]4-27[/TD]
[TD]3-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]21:05[/TD]
[TD]38:55[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
When I saw that total I thought "I like how Missouri's defense matches up against uga. I like how the UGA defense matches up against Mizzou. I think it goes over because of number of plays.". But who is to say that UGA doesn't just eat a ton of clock in the game?

Good looking card so far, gps. keep it rolling (so to speak)
 
clowncar said:
When I saw that total I thought "I like how Missouri's defense matches up against uga. I like how the UGA defense matches up against Mizzou. I think it goes over because of number of plays.". But who is to say that UGA doesn't just eat a ton of clock in the game?

Good looking card so far, gps. keep it rolling (so to speak)
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Two things we do have evidence of having already occurred this short season: 1) UGA eating lots of clock 2) Mizzou eclipsing the century mark in number of plays and scoring 11 points. (Why couldn't it have been a back door 18, dang it?)
 
Also, CC. One thing I've seen you mention and I agree with is that Mizzou has taken step back defensively. Was reading Bill C's commentary on the Mizzou/EMU game (he is a mizzou alum) and he mentioned that he felt Mizzou was more read and react on defense this season, to me insinuating less attacking than they have been in year's past. I havent noticed that necessarily and not sure I watch enough of them to even notice something like that but I thought interesting to hear from him, nonetheless.
 
My numbers for the week:

Vanderbilt +4.5
Kentucky -23
Arkansas -35.5
Tennessee -27.5
A&M -1
Alabama -3.5
Georgia -7
Fightin' Etlings -15.5
Florida -36.5
South Carolina -6.5
 
Here is what I've got so far:

Louisville +3/3.5 (big)
Alabama -9.5 (big)
Iowa -8.5
Miss St +14.5
Portland State/Washington OVER 53.5
aTm/Auburn UNDER 54
Texas/Cal OVER 76.5
Miami/App St UNDER 54
W Michigan/Illinois UNDER 59.5
USC/Stanford UNDER 54
UGA/Mizzou UNDER 56.5

Few other sides in consideration are App St, VT, La Tech (I generally hate betting on Tex Tech games) I haven't felt great about any week until this one. Good week 1, bad week 2. Hope it's as good as I think it will be. Have few TT I am looking for as well on Saturday.
 
Adding:

FSU/Ville OV 65
TCU -24
Mizzou/UGA UN 56
WKU -17.5
Alabama/OM UN 54.5
 
Adding:

Houston TT OV 36.5

Think this is a pretty high scoring game, fear the backdoor so going Houston TT
 
I am leaning to the O58 in the Tenny/Ohio gm.
Ohio is putting up some points and I can see Tenny overlooking this team for next weeks clash w/ the gates.
On the other hand. I could see Tenny playing this close to the vest. Either way this total should be going over.
 
ProV1Colt said:
I am leaning to the O58 in the Tenny/Ohio gm.
Ohio is putting up some points and I can see Tenny overlooking this team for next weeks clash w/ the gates.
On the other hand. I could see Tenny playing this close to the vest. Either way this total should be going over.
Click to expand...

Agree...although I would prefer taking the pts myself...incase it's a 30-20 type game. I think Ohio gets to 17 at least...
 
gps_3 said:
Adding:

Houston TT OV 36.5

Think this is a pretty high scoring game, fear the backdoor so going Houston TT
Click to expand...

Never a doubt. This is one of those wins that I need to remember the next time I get a bad beat
 
ProV1Colt said:
I am leaning to the O58 in the Tenny/Ohio gm.
Ohio is putting up some points and I can see Tenny overlooking this team for next weeks clash w/ the gates.
On the other hand. I could see Tenny playing this close to the vest. Either way this total should be going over.
Click to expand...

I will probably be opposite of you - I'm just not totally sure how I will attack it.

I do think it's a nasty sandwich for UT but unlike you I think that probably points towards a more lackluster offensive output than defensive, simply because they are so much better on defense than offense and if any area they have shown they will go conservative it's certainly on offense. Now I could be wrong, and I think a case could certainly be made this is a great spot to let Dobbs attempt to stretch the field vertically to at least put something on tape for the SEC opponents but their OC is about as conservative and untrusting of his QB as there is in the SEC. Noon kickoff after VT and before a conference game, very similar spot to UGA where they laid an egg last week as 55 pt favorites. The OL has been a revolving door for UT thus far and they did have a bit on continuity in the 2H of last game but I'm still not buying it. In this short season, Ohio has seen two pass heavy offenses the first two weeks and given up huge yardage but has top 15 rush defense numbers. Tenn is 118th in pass offense, so they could try to emphasize that like I said but even if they do, they just aren't any good at passing. Ohio would be wise to utilize the run game, they've found a new weapon at QB that looks to be a better runner than passer at this point and they have dominated TOP thus far through two games. I just wouldn't buy Ohio scoring a lot here, theyre pretty fortunate to have faced Kansas who ranked dead last in ppg allowed in 2015, 46.1 and Tex St who ranked 120th at 39.2 ppg. To me, almost all signs point to a disinterested heavy favorite leading to an ugly game. I should also point out if you havent been following my tune each week I think Tenny is extremely over rated
 
gps_3 said:
Never a doubt. This is one of those wins that I need to remember the next time I get a bad beat
Click to expand...

Had a softball game tonight. Got in van after and it was 12-10 Cincy in the 4th. Got home and saw they went up 26-16 got out of the shower and saw they had 40, thought about your bet and invisi-toasted you
 
CrimsonK said:
Had a softball game tonight. Got in van after and it was 12-10 Cincy in the 4th. Got home and saw they went up 26-16 got out of the shower and saw they had 40, thought about your bet and invisi-toasted you
Click to expand...

I'm going to take it as payback that Cincy owed me from them providing a horrific bad beat against Duke in the Belk bowl a few years ago
 
gps_3 said:
I'm going to take it as payback that Cincy owed me from them providing a horrific bad beat against Duke in the Belk bowl a few years ago
Click to expand...

duke has fucked me it seems countless times

was that the really really bad one tho?
 
twinkie13 said:
duke has fucked me it seems countless times

was that the really really bad one tho?
Click to expand...

Yeah. Duke was leading as a 10 point dog late in the 4th and lost by 14 after a couple of defensive TDs by Cincy
 
I went ahead and added Ohio/UT U58. Not super confident I will have bet this at the peak price but I get the sense this one ends up closer to 55 by kick. Also added Hawaii +24. I hope Arizona is as bad as I think they could possibly be. Big number to lay with an offense that has all sorts of question marks and I think Hawaii was certainly very unlucky to lose to Cal in the fashion they did. Michigan, I give them a break with the situation and obvious jump up in class. Grambling State was -6 in TO last week in a 10 point loss against Zona. Hawaii strikes me as the type of team that has shown the capability to turn it over a bunch so that is a concern here but this is just a big number to lay for a bad football team with a backup QB.
 
Just wanted to pop in and tell Twinkie that my LSU "auto-play" vs. Messy ST is off this year.

That's sad , I've been playing that for decades.
 
I added Miss St TT O16.5. I have them getting into twenties. Let's see if this LSU team is as down as I suspect they may be..
 
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