gps_3 Week 3 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 21-20

Locked In:

Arkansas -11'
Kentucky +3
S Carolina +17'



Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (2-0)
AU U 8' +130 (2-0 They definitely look more like a 7-8 win team than a 10-11 win team)
TCU U 10 +115 (2-0)
UGA O 9 -140 (2-0)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (2-0, have played nobody, but look really good)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (2-0, huge win for this bet last week)
UCLA U 9 -125 (2-0; Rosen looked better than I thought he would, still think a TF QB slips up a time or two)
Wisconsin O 9 -115 (1-1; expected loss, schedule is significantly easier from here out)

 
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SEC Week 3 Games:

Going to try something here. Will post my lines based on my PR, haven't seen the openers yet, and my local doesn't have lines up yet, will probably be this afternoon. Note: I don't do PR for FCS teams, so I won't have a PR line for at least 14 SEC games this season

Ole Miss @ Alabama (-7)

Missouri (-28') vs UCONN

aTm (-26) vs Nevada

AU @ LSU (-9')

Miss St vs Northwestern St

Vandy vs Austin Peay

SC @ UGA (-15)

Arkansas (-14') vs Texas Tech

Tennessee vs Western Carolina

Florida @ UK (PK)


Let's discuss these and any other games
 
gps_3 said:
2015: 21-20

Locked In:




Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (2-0)
AU U 8' +130 (2-0 They definitely look more like a 7-8 win team than a 10-11 win team)
TCU U 10 +115 (2-0)
UGA O 9 -140 (2-0)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (2-0, have played nobody, but look really good)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (2-0, huge win for this bet last week)
UCLA U 9 -125 (2-0; Rosen looked better than I thought he would, still think a TF QB slips up a time or two)
Wisconsin O 9 -115 (1-1; expected loss, schedule is significantly easier from here out)
Click to expand...
TCU will be an interesting bet. I don't see a whole lot of games they can lose in the Big 12. But I can see a whole lot of games that they won't cover. For the most part, I believe TCU will be a bet against team this year...
 
Week 2 recap:

Still treading water for the season. I don't post units on here, but looking at everything this morning, I am down about one unit for the season in NCAAF. Worries me some because weeks 1 and 2 are usually my best weeks. Hopefully the time spent on doing my own PR and the great discussions here will help me weed out the bad plays. One thing is for sure and that's that I need to stop wandering out of my comfort zone. WTF was I doing betting Wash St @ Rutgers? Or UCLA @ UNLV? Had some follows from the in-game that were right on the money, but aren't listed in the record, plus GLB's MLB play that I played for multiple units. In-game is a great resource

SEC thoughts:

The folks that trumpet the conference the loudest are the fans/coaches/ADs of the mediocre teams. I'm looking at you Arkansas and Tennessee. I'm not a conference apologist by any stretch, so I had to laugh as Ark lost to Toledo, Tennessee blew a comfortable lead, and Auburn nearly lost to an FCS school. Taken individually, I think those results show that Arkansas and Tennessee are still not ready to turn the corner, though I imagine they'll each beat a team or two they shouldn't. All 3 teams had a hype train that couldn't be derailed during the offseason.

On AU, and taken with a grain of salt since I pull for their rival, they have the wrong QB for their system. Plain and simple. I can't speak for Gus' offenses at Ark St and Tulsa, but at AU, it has been damn near unstoppable with a legit running threat at QB and very pedestrian with a drop back passer. Makes me wonder what they're doing with their recent QB recruiting too. They should switch philosophies with LSU in that regard. Some of the Jax St game can been explained by the sandwich spot, which was my reasoning for betting Jax St, but AU has no business allowing that to become a 4th quarter game, much less OT. I said in the preseason that Muschamp doesn't have the players he needs (he'll get them as long as he stays), and it's been apparent through 2 games that they desperately need Carl Lawson on the field. Which is scary seeing as how he is apparently injury prone. It is possible that they recover and challenge for the West, but I'm not seeing it right now.

Alabama looked pretty average against MTSU. I thought the defense played really well, and further proved the point that it's not the system that Saban/Smart can't defend, it's when that type of offense has future NFL players on it when Alabama struggles to defend it (relatively speaking). But I thought they handled themselves really well with the pace and were rarely out of position. Forcing the 4 turnovers certainly hid the fact that MTSU moved the ball pretty well early in the game, but they did nothing after the first drive of the 2nd quarter. First team defense held them to 3 points, and the TD came after a 77 yard INT return. Which brings me to the offense. Coker played the 1st half, Bateman the 2nd. Our playcalling was a little unusual early on, seeming as if we were just trying out things to see how we'd do. And Coker looked a little shaky. A definite step back from his performance against Wisky. Bateman mostly handed the ball off against a tired defense as Saban was happy to let Henry, Drake, and Harris run the ball. Bateman's INT was horrendous and probably ended his shot at the starting gig. All in all, Alabama will have to play much better to win the West. Under Saban, we have often seen a lethargic performance in game 2 after playing a big opener, so no reason to panic yet. I don't want to even talk about our placekicker. Since starting last year 7 for 7, he is 5 for 18. Miraculously, one of those 5 was the game tying FG at LSU last season. It's past time to make a change, but Saban seems reluctant to do so, which tells me our options are basically zero. As it has seemingly every year, I think it will cost us a game, maybe two unless things change dramatically.

Watched most of LSU @ Miss St. Newsflash: Fournette is good. My main takeaway from the game is that Miles is content to lean on the run game and play very conservatively, especially with the lead, and that Dak Prescott is good enough to keep State in most games, but they aren't very good. And haven't heard a whole lot about it, but Miss St took a delay penalty on their last drive when they had a timeout available that resulted in the game-winning FG attempt being 52 instead of 46. Inexcusable from a senior QB and experienced head coach. LSU is going to beat teams up this season too.

Didn't watch, but SC's loss to UK has to have Spurrier looking at retirement more, right?

Did Tennessee make any adjustments in the 2nd half? I had pretty much chalked up that game as a loss on my OU bet. Not sure how UT recovers from this. If they lose to UF, Jones' seat is going to get mighty warm. As I posted in another thread, Jones and Dooley have identical records through 27 games as UT HC.

Didn't see any of the other games, so no real opinions. Don't think you can take too much from the Ole Miss and aTm games, other than that they did what superior teams are supposed to do.
 
GPS, let's talk Jorja and Aub for a minute...do you think the outcome of that game was because of the lack of execution by the bulldawgs or because Vandy and McCrary are better than advertised., namely the defense.

I think Auburn showed some of their true colors, you can't just have a QB who tries to air it out and when you can disrupt that run game, it forces Johnson to throw and so far he's under performing. Also seems that a mobile QB gives that Auburn D some fits. I was low on Aubby to start the year, pretty sure we had a nice Aubby chat, but would like to hear what you have seen so far as well
 
gsro said:
GPS, let's talk Jorja and Aub for a minute...do you think the outcome of that game was because of the lack of execution by the bulldawgs or because Vandy and McCrary are better than advertised., namely the defense.

I think Auburn showed some of their true colors, you can't just have a QB who tries to air it out and when you can disrupt that run game, it forces Johnson to throw and so far he's under performing. Also seems that a mobile QB gives that Auburn D some fits. I was low on Aubby to start the year, pretty sure we had a nice Aubby chat, but would like to hear what you have seen so far as well
Click to expand...

I didn't see the UGA/Vandy game, but I thought the guys on TSE made some good points in the two podcasts I've listened to. For one, Vandy is improved from last year, especially on defense. They won't win many games, but they should be able to cover some big spreads until (if) the books adjust. Two, this was the first road start for Lambert (right?) and Richt was unlikely to allow him to make mistakes that could lose the game, especially with Chubb, Michel, Marshall, etc. Box score shows 10 penalties for UGA for 92 yards. That right there could be the only explanation needed for the relatively close score.

For AU, Johnson appears to be a one read QB, and he doesn't read the defenses. I read an article last week about the NFL having a hard time drafting QBs from colleges that run the hurry up spread because they aren't taught to read defenses. Had a quote from Bryce Petty that while he was at Baylor, they never read who the Mike LB was pre-snap. Ever. So I think Gus is trying to run a drop-back passing offense and has a QB that has not been taught, or hasn't learned, how to read a defense pre-snap, and is unable or unwilling to run through his progressions before throwing. The announcers during the game last Saturday actually questioned whether Johnson had impaired vision. Also, as stated earlier, that defense still has most of last year's players on it that weren't very good. It will take time to get better there, and they are really thin, as evidenced at how poor they were when Lawson is out. I wouldn't say I was necessarily low on AU, just that I didn't think the pre-season hype was justified. They were picked to win the West/SEC/playoff based on nothing but assumptions, and that is bad reasoning IMO
 
it should be mentioned that austin peay rushed for 2.0 per carry and allowed 8.0 per carry versus southern miss

good luck this week
 
captjohn67 said:
it should be mentioned that austin peay rushed for 2.0 per carry and allowed 8.0 per carry versus southern miss

good luck this week
Click to expand...

Thanks for that. Vandy needs a win in the worst way, and the bigger the margin the better
 
gps_3 said:
I didn't see the UGA/Vandy game, but I thought the guys on TSE made some good points in the two podcasts I've listened to. For one, Vandy is improved from last year, especially on defense. They won't win many games, but they should be able to cover some big spreads until (if) the books adjust. Two, this was the first road start for Lambert (right?) and Richt was unlikely to allow him to make mistakes that could lose the game, especially with Chubb, Michel, Marshall, etc. Box score shows 10 penalties for UGA for 92 yards. That right there could be the only explanation needed for the relatively close score.

For AU, Johnson appears to be a one read QB, and he doesn't read the defenses. I read an article last week about the NFL having a hard time drafting QBs from colleges that run the hurry up spread because they aren't taught to read defenses. Had a quote from Bryce Petty that while he was at Baylor, they never read who the Mike LB was pre-snap. Ever. So I think Gus is trying to run a drop-back passing offense and has a QB that has not been taught, or hasn't learned, how to read a defense pre-snap, and is unable or unwilling to run through his progressions before throwing. The announcers during the game last Saturday actually questioned whether Johnson had impaired vision. Also, as stated earlier, that defense still has most of last year's players on it that weren't very good. It will take time to get better there, and they are really thin, as evidenced at how poor they were when Lawson is out. I wouldn't say I was necessarily low on AU, just that I didn't think the pre-season hype was justified. They were picked to win the West/SEC/playoff based on nothing but assumptions, and that is bad reasoning IMO
Click to expand...

Thanks,

I didn't understand the pre-season hype either.. Thanks for the input, should be fun when they tangle with Bama, hopefuly Saban goes for jugular
 
gsro said:
Thanks,

I didn't understand the pre-season hype either.. Thanks for the input, should be fun when they tangle with Bama, hopefuly Saban goes for jugular
Click to expand...

I fully expect them to turn into the Green Bay Packers when we play them. Unless they are as deflated as they were in 2012 when they completely gave up
 
I expected the Bama/Miss line to open 7-10 and stay there all week

Briefly after opening at 8.5 it was bet down to 6 at BOL. The fact that someone took Miss at 6.5 was very surprising to me. If it gets down to 6 or up to 11 I'll make a play on a side but otherwise I'll likely just watch the game while trying to avoid passing out drunk
 
twinkie13 said:
way too many points in Baton Rouge, right?
Click to expand...

Haven't seen the line yet. The one posted above is what my PR says, though I might dock LSU half a point on HFA for being a 2:30 kick rather than a night game. I don't think I could take LSU over a TD
 
Schrute said:
I expected the Bama/Miss line to open 7-10 and stay there all week

Briefly after opening at 8.5 it was bet down to 6 at BOL. The fact that someone took Miss at 6.5 was very surprising to me. If it gets down to 6 or up to 11 I'll make a play on a side but otherwise I'll likely just watch the game while trying to avoid passing out drunk
Click to expand...

These 8:15 kicks in this part of the country are stupid. I'll have to wait until the 4th quarter of AU/LSU to start drinking if I have any hope of making it past halftime for our game. I hope my 1 year old and 8 month pregnant wife cooperate and let me sleep until at least 8 on Sunday
 
Good thread as usual. I agree about the Auburn QB situation. I thought the way Marshall ran the option really made that offense go. Nearly always made the correct read and seemed to be at full speed as soon as he pulled it. Gus will find a way to move the ball, but the company line of "look what he did with a DB playing QB, now they're really going to be unstoppable" was premature.

I think Arkansas rolls this week.
 
Week 3 SEC (lines are from local):

aTm (-34) vs Nevada

UGA (-17) vs SCAR

LSU (-7') vs AU

Alabama (-6') vs Ole Miss

Arkansas (-11') vs Texas Tech

Mizzou (-21) vs UCONN

UF (-3) @ UK
 
I will gladly pay to see Richt cover by 3 scores against Spurrier. IMO 6-10 point game with some serious value in the ML at that number
 
Added:

Arky -11'
UK +3
SCAR +17' (was lined at 17 -105, bought half for -115)
 
i was trying to recall the last time i said "Give me Vandy -41" and quickly realized that has never happened and never will.
 
Why the hell did the SEC allow 3 top SEC gms to be played at 2:30?
SC/Jorga
Bama/Ole Piss
Lsu/Aub

i just don't understand this?
 
gps_3 said:
AU @ LSU - 2:30
UGA vs SC - 5:00
Ole Miss @ Bama - 8:15
Click to expand...
Thank god. I was putting my bets in and BOL had them all down for 2:30 gms.
I went and doubled checked too.
That would have been a disaster todo that.
 
On UK, I posted my PR line above and have it at a PK. First road game for UF, still undecided on a QB, and I don't think there's much separating these teams on the field the last 2 years, so I opted to take the points with the home team. I do have concerns about UK moving the ball against the Gator defense, and the near collapse against UL-L is still on my brain, but, I think the bottom half of the SEC is pretty mediocre with very little separation at this point, so I can see myself taking the home dog in most conference games.
 
Still hearing that Tunsil will most likely be out for Alabama game. Way I've heard it, the NCAA wanted a 4 game suspension, the school wanted 2. The school was ready to roll the dice on it, but someone in the hierarchy of the university got involved who isn't necessarily a friend of the athletic department (no shot at working for Auburn in the future), and will play it safe and keep Tunsil out for 4 games. But I'm guessing we won't know until Saturday. Maybe Grovehard can chime in?
 
gps_3 said:
On UK, I posted my PR line above and have it at a PK. First road game for UF, still undecided on a QB, and I don't think there's much separating these teams on the field the last 2 years, so I opted to take the points with the home team. I do have concerns about UK moving the ball against the Gator defense, and the near collapse against UL-L is still on my brain, but, I think the bottom half of the SEC is pretty mediocre with very little separation at this point, so I can see myself taking the home dog in most conference games.
Click to expand...

Gator RB Taylor has been demoted to 3rd string after run in with Mcelwain

he has been their 1.....I doubt this means he sits out the game or anything, just thought I would mention it.

FLA guys probably know more....
 
Starting AU DB Josh Holsey out for year with torn ACL. Any other injuries y'all hearing about?
 
Adding:

Alabama/OM U 51
Ga Tech -2'
Colorado St +4
Texas +6'
Stanford +10

And I hate teasers but:
LSU-.5/Alabama-1
 
Adding:

Lou/Clem U 52
UMass +10' (3rd straight week fading Temple, haven't learned my lesson yet)
AU/LSU O 48'
Col St ML +145
UCONN +21'
WKU/IU O 70'
PITT +5'
 
Tunsil is officially out for game this weekend. Guessing with a backup LT and a true freshman LG, Alabama will look to attack the left side of Mississippi's line.
 
gps_3 said:
Still hearing that Tunsil will most likely be out for Alabama game. Way I've heard it, the NCAA wanted a 4 game suspension, the school wanted 2. The school was ready to roll the dice on it, but someone in the hierarchy of the university got involved who isn't necessarily a friend of the athletic department (no shot at working for Auburn in the future), and will play it safe and keep Tunsil out for 4 games. But I'm guessing we won't know until Saturday. Maybe Grovehard can chime in?
Click to expand...

Yep. I m guessing that a few guys in the compliance department will be looking for jobs after this is over. Cam didn't miss a snap. Manziel missed a half. It looks like Tunsil will sit for 4 because he kept a loaner vehicle for an "extended period" while his car was getting fixed, but nobody knows anything concrete at this point...except maybe the fuckers in Indianapolis.
 
twinkie13 said:
Gator RB Taylor has been demoted to 3rd string after run in with Mcelwain

he has been their 1.....I doubt this means he sits out the game or anything, just thought I would mention it.

FLA guys probably know more....
Click to expand...

Means nothing. McElwain just fucks with the depth chart. Demarcus Robinson was #3 on the one WR spot and played all game. McElwain already said ALOT less offensive player changes than the first 2 games.

Our defense is now full strength with VH3, Neal & Maye all being back. It really exposed our 4th string corners in the last game. But Tabor & VH3 are as good as it gets in CFB.

Offense still a challenge. Before Week 1, our OL only had 1 guy that had starting FBS experience.

My number have this game UF -1.
 
Grovehard said:
Yep. I m guessing that a few guys in the compliance department will be looking for jobs after this is over. Cam didn't miss a snap. Manziel missed a half. It looks like Tunsil will sit for 4 because he kept a loaner vehicle for an "extended period" while his car was getting fixed, but nobody knows anything concrete at this point...except maybe the fuckers in Indianapolis.
Click to expand...

Cam was suspended from Monday to Wednesday leading into their game w/ UGA
 
Hearing that Carl Lawson for AU will be out until November with a broken trochanter bone. Unconfirmed as far as I know, but not sounding like he'll be making the trip to Baton Rouge at the very least
 
gps_3 said:
Hearing that Carl Lawson for AU will be out until November with a broken trochanter bone. Unconfirmed as far as I know, but not sounding like he'll be making the trip to Baton Rouge at the very least
Click to expand...

He's starting to remind me of Greg Hardy in college: game changer but couldn't stay on the field.
 
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