gps_3 Week 2 SEC

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 9-9

Locked In:
Ole Miss -29
Cincy -6'
Georgia Tech -28'
Kentucky +7
La Tech -1
LSU -4'
Arkansas St +10'
UMASS +13
Colorado St +6'
Rutgers -2
UNLV +29
Alabama/MTSU U56'
Tenn/OU O 61'
OU -1'

Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (1-0; basically need them to have a WTF game)
AU U 8' +130 (1-0; week 3 at LSU will determine how I feel about this one)
TCU U 10 +115 (1-0)
UGA O 9 -140 (1-0)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (1-0)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (1-0)
UCLA U 9 -125 (1-0; Rosen looked better than I thought he would, still think a TF QB slips up a time or two)
Wisconsin O 9 -115 (0-1; expected loss, schedule is significantly easier from here out)
 
Last edited:
On my phone, will clean up everything when I get to a computer. Pretty disappointed with week 1. Usually have a really good start and give it all back later, but certainly not a disaster. Being at the beach all week with family also throws a wrench into everything. Also found myself tailing or being talked off of my leans, probably a product of analyzing week 1 lines for 2 months, so going to stick to my guns this week.

Only SEC games I watched we're the AU and Alabama games. Also a product of beach vacation with the in laws. Will post some thoughts later, but based on what I saw and what I've read, I don't think there was anything that was that unexpected week 1. There are some concerns for a few and reasons for optimism on others, but the sample size is way too small to make any sweeping changes to my original thoughts.

Important to not overreact to one game, some teams played poorly and will improve and some played better than their normal. Going to be a great season. Looking forward to the arguments over the relative strengths of Wisconsin, Louisville, Va Tech, Minnesota etc
 
Adding:

Ole Miss -29
Cincy -6'
Georgia Tech -28'
Kentucky +7
 
Thought week one played out pretty much as expected in the SEC. The teams that played clearly inferior opponents did what they are supposed to do, though UK and Miss St games were closer than you'd like to see from their end, and you have to be concerned with UT's defense a little. aTm looked better on defense than many expected, but as I mentioned during the summer, I think the John Chavis hire is a better hire than Muschamp from an X's and O's and coaching perspective. Muschamp is obviously the superior recruiter, but that will take a couple of years to bear fruit. As impressive as aTm was though, I'm sure we are all pumping the breaks on them after what happened last season.

I expected AU to struggle on offense, but it was because of Louisville's defense that I thought that, coupled with a ton of inexperience on AU's offense. It was partly that, but AU didn't look like anything Malzahn has trotted out there the last couple of years. Nick Marshall was a much better QB for that offense than the analysts believe or that any of their fans would tell you. Johnson didn't look anything resembling a Heisman contender, making very poor decisions with the ball and looking completely incapable of reading the defense. He'll have to get better, and I'm sure he will, if AU is to contend for the West. Thought Barber ran hard and was always falling forward. Defense looked better and really got after the QB when Lawson was in the game. When he was out, which was a significant amount of time, the defense looked pretty much as it did last year. They'll need some other players to step it up because I don't think you can count on Lawson full time coming off the ACL injury.

Very happy with the way the Alabama game played out. Controlled the game for most of the 60 minutes, lot of guys got meaningful game reps, and plenty to work on in the film room and the practice field. As has been the case for the last 2 seasons, kicking is a huge concern. Feels as if it will cost us a game or two if Griffith doesn't figure it out. Penalties were a concern, but hopefully that is something that will get fixed with more reps. Coker played better than I could have hoped, time will tell if he can play that way on a consistent basis and when the competition ratchets up. The 3rd quarter was the best I've seen the defense play in a long time. Excited for what they can accomplish this year.
 
SEC Week 2:

UF -20' vs ECU

Ole Miss -29 vs Fresno St

LSU -4' @ Miss St

Mizzou -10' @ Arkansas St

UGA -20' @ Vandy

Arkansas -20' vs Toledo (game is in Little Rock)

Alabama -35 vs MTSU

UK +7 @ SCAR

aTm -29' vs Ball St

Tenn PK vs Oklahoma

AU vs Jax St

Let's discuss...
 
Adding:

La Tech -1
LSU -4'
Arkansas St +10'
UMASS +13
Colorado St +6'
Rutgers -2
UNLV +29
 
GPS care to share your thoguhts on the OU/Tenny game? I see you have a future on them, figure this would be a win that they need for that future...
 
I think OU wins it, but I wanted them as a dog to bet the points. I see it as a game between 2 pretty good offenses with mediocre defense. Biggest worry is that both teams lean heavily on their RBs and they eat up a bunch of clock, but there's big play potential all over the place. I'm thinking a 38-31 type win for the Sooners
 
twinkie13 said:
What would the Tulane line have been if this was 1st game of the year?
Click to expand...

Don't know. You're the resident Tulane expert. Can't imagine it would be much different. I'm high on GT this year and Tulane did nothing last week to impress me.
 
gps_3 said:
Don't know. You're the resident Tulane expert. Can't imagine it would be much different. I'm high on GT this year and Tulane did nothing last week to impress me.
Click to expand...

I am just wondering if the line is inflated due to last week. Tulane saw GT last year at Yuleman. GT has a HUGE game vs ND next week....IDK, just talking out loud
 
twinkie13 said:
I am just wondering if the line is inflated due to last week. Tulane saw GT last year at Yuleman. GT has a HUGE game vs ND next week....IDK, just talking out loud
Click to expand...

I thought about the look ahead with GT, but I think that offense mitigates it unless the QB has a really poor game.
 
I guess here is as good as any.....

[video=youtube;LpGeCCYbMyg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpGeCCYbMyg[/video]
 
gps_3 said:
I think OU wins it, but I wanted them as a dog to bet the points. I see it as a game between 2 pretty good offenses with mediocre defense. Biggest worry is that both teams lean heavily on their RBs and they eat up a bunch of clock, but there's big play potential all over the place. I'm thinking a 38-31 type win for the Sooners
Click to expand...

thanks i'm leaning sooners right now and just wanted to see if you had any thoughts - thank you :D
 
Doesn't matter this week, but hearing that Tunsil will have a 4 game suspension announced soon. Impermissible benefits. If true, I'll take all the help we can get. Schedule looks brutal
 
gsro said:
thanks i'm leaning sooners right now and just wanted to see if you had any thoughts - thank you :D
Click to expand...

Starting to lean Sooners more and more, may buy off the total and just take OU
 
Added OU-1'. Been trying to not have multiple bets on same game, but talked myself into this one
 
gps_3 said:
Added OU-1'. Been trying to not have multiple bets on same game, but talked myself into this one
Click to expand...
The Vols will have to play one hellva gm to pull this out. Okla and the Over seems to easy and things are never that easy.
 
I would take that video down if I was related to the university at all.

Good luck this week.

Press
 
Thanks guys, hope we all crush today.

Adding:

Arkansas 1H -13
BYU +120
UVA/ND U 46'
Penn St TT U 33
tOSU/Haw 1h U 37
UGA 1H -13
 
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