gps_3 Week 2 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making

2016: 19-8-1

Week 1: 19-8-1


Week 2:

Syracuse +14'/+17
Arkansas +7'
Duke -5
Arkansas St +19'
Kentucky +17
Va Tech +11'
Georgia Southern -13
UTEP +29
Utah St +16'
USF -15
Iowa -15
Wazzu +10'
TCU/Ark OV 58'
Alabama/WKU UN 61'
Pitt/PSU UN 48
Mizzou -24
Clemson -34'
Alabama -27'
Oregon -23
Michigan TT OV 44'

Season bets:

JT Barrett to win Heisman +1500
Miss St ov 6' wins (0-1)
USC ov 7' wins (0-1)
Utah ov 7' wins (1-0)
Kentucky un 4' wins (0-1)
Arkansas ov 7' wins (1-0)
 
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A lot to talk about in reaction to week 1, but will get to that when I can. Please feel free to start the convo. Here are my week 2 PR lines:

Florida -9 vs UK
Alabama -20' vs WKU
Vandy -4 vs MTSU
Arkansas +5 @ TCU
SCAR +9 @ Miss St
AU -10' vs Ark St
Tennessee -2' vs Va Tech
Mizzou -21' vs E Mich

UGA vs Nicholls St
aTm vs Prairie View
Ole Miss vs Wofford
LSU vs Jax St
 
to add, there's probably going to be an overreaction to the UK game, but that was downright awful coaching.
 
UK/FLA I made 10.5

Interested in your tenny line, "only" -2?

I was already lower than most on Tenny before the season started, and I adjusted them a bit more after Thursday. I didn't adjust my Va Tech #, which may be a little high. My #s are pretty fluid and a lot of times I just use as a starting point. But I lean Virginia Tech at this point
 
I am on UK myself and VPI. Glad to see you concur with my assessment.

Also played Middle at +5.5, and I expect to play Arkansas as well.

Your power-rating line for USC-MSU is probably fair, but I will be playing the dog for other reasons.
 
I would add that Ole Miss won't have much time to get ready for Wofford's option offense. I remember FSU losing to Miami on Labor Day 2009, and then playing J'ville State 4.5 days later. The Noles only managed a 19-9 win (should have won by about 32), and that was with no travel for game 1. I already have small plays on Wofford and Baptist and expect to add more.
 
Some quick thoughts on the games I watched all or part of:

Tennessee - Lucky to get the win which is all that really matters, but I'd be concerned about the way App St dominated on the lines, especially their d-line vs Tenn o-line. And despite his game saving play, Hurd is not as good as Kamara. Wish he was still at Alabama

Auburn - Pretty impressed by the defense. Best game they've played in years. But that offense...man what is Gus doing? Franklin probably shouldn't have gotten a scholarship and Jeremy Johnson is just a mess. I think you have to play White and just try to work around his limitations

LSU - not a good look for Les. Harris is still the same QB he was last year, and the playcalling is still the same as it has been. Miles' stubbornness will likely cost him his job. But that lack of effort was concerning

aTm - I'm not sure Trevor Knight is as talented as the last few QBs they've had, but I think he is far more mature and stable than any of them, and that is exactly what they needed. That pass rush could be downright scary. Concerned that they stalled out on offense late in the game, but overall pretty impressed

UGA - Another team that I thought played better than I expected. Nick Chubb is a stud and I love seeing a guy come back from injury like that. Kirby will have some growing pains, but that's to be expected. Eason is going to end up a player. Glad to see that Mo Smith didn't want to start at nickle back at Alabama so he could go play nickle back at UGA

Alabama - thought the defense was outstanding. Great pass rush without blitzing and thought Pruitt attacked 3rd down much more aggressively than Kirby did. Offense was sort of a mixed bag, but overall I was pleased with the outcome. Hurts didn't play like a true freshman, and Barnett did well when he came back in, though it's just a touch easier to play up 32 points. Hopefully we can name a guy and be ready to go for Ole Miss in 2 weeks, but I think we can play good football with either guy. Hope to see more of Bo Scarborough in the coming weeks.

Ole Miss - yikes. I have FSU as one of the top 3 teams in country, but a team as talented as Ole Miss shouldn't blow a lead like that against anyone. The lack of a running game and Kelly's volatility will be the downfall of this team this year. I hope we get 2nd half Ole Miss in 2 weeks and not 1st half Ole Miss.

Didn't watch the other games, but not a good look for Kentucky and Miss St. Probably lost my RSW bet over for State, but the UK under has legs now. I wouldn't be that concerned about Arkansas just yet as they seem to always play poorly in September then turn it on by November. No opinion on Vandy or SCAR, but will probably be looking to take unders in their games whenever possible

A note on FSU, DeMarcus Walker was committed to Alabama until a month before signing day. He decommitted and chose FSU while we were playing Notre Dame in championship game. The main reason he switched was...Jeremy Pruitt
 
I would add that Ole Miss won't have much time to get ready for Wofford's option offense. I remember FSU losing to Miami on Labor Day 2009, and then playing J'ville State 4.5 days later. The Noles only managed a 19-9 win (should have won by about 32), and that was with no travel for game 1. I already have small plays on Wofford and Baptist and expect to add more.

Ole Miss in a lookahead spot too. My only concern is that Freeze is unlikely to call the dogs off and give the backup QB plenty of reps
 
I can't find the status on injured WR Josh Barge for JSU (nothing even on his Twitter acct). The gamecocks passing attack was just so so against an inferior opponent in week one and I think Barge is essential because the others are green. Hard to picture the gamecocks consistently running the ball well and if Barge is a no show they'll stack the box. I'll update when I see something. Great start gps
 
My thoughts on Week 1

Vandy/S Carolina - Good win for USCe. Brutal to open with two SEC road games being a bottom feeder in the conference and somehow they could come out of it a terrible football team at 2-0. Vandy offense took no steps forward from what I could discern. Switching up the QB and putting in Freebeck (I think thats his name) early was silly. He doesn't bring an additional skill set and Shurmur was at least effective in what they asked of him. I feel for Ralph Webb, he is so good on a team full of so bads on offense. Defensively, Vandy just gassed. It was weird. I would expect that late in the year from a team that doesn't recruit well but to happen 30 or 45 min into the year was bizarre. I still think they can be a really good defense again but I'm in wait to see mode as I can't discern what possibly could have happened there. As for USCe, the dual QB thing didn't go as well as some of the others we saw attempted this past weekend. McIlwain is an athlete but he looked like a freshman and didn't show me he is quite ready to do it with his arm yet. Orth, while not as athletic, can scoot if he needs to and I was pretty impressed how he felt pressure and moved around. Holy smokes Bryan Edwards at WR. No one could cover him, he provides either QB a real nice outlet and he surprisingly took all the targets I thought Deebo Samuel was going to get, Between those two WR and a few nice runs by Turner I think they have better offensive weapons than I expected. Defensively they played well but that was to be expected. Tougher test will be this week in Starkville, how much tougher will be determined by how the Mulldogs respond and what they can get figured out this week.

Miss St/USA - What a weird game. I'm one of the few people in America that actually watched this one live. First off, my biggest concern, replacing Dak, was a MUCH bigger deal than I had anticipated. I was in the camp of belief that Fitzgerald would win the job and he would play admirably, as he had shown he could before. He only got a few series, the offense sputtered, and Damian Williams came in. Williams also has experience laying minutes for Miss St but is different than Fitz. He is more mobile but isn't a very capable passer. For me, his mobility and speed isn't SO great that I say screw it just leave him in and let him run and create and his passing is just underdeveloped enough that he isn't particular good at anything right now. He had a decent stat line, particularly running (12 for 93 with a 28 long) and 20/28 passing for 143 1/0 but it was dink and dunk stuff. Fred Ross was inexplicably a non-factor other than the misdirection run play which he went for 46. So, Miss St ran for 7 ypc on 34 for 239 but it wasn't particularly great considering it was a couple of big runs and then just some dumb play calls running the diminutive Holloway up the middle (he is an edge guy not between tackles). So the offense lacked identity and maybe feeling the Dak loss will be exacerbated here early on but I personally don't know if Williams is who I would go with. I havent read anything yet on who they may go with this week, my gut is it is far from over. To USA's credit, this team is going to be able to pass on a lot of teams. Dallas Davis was outstanding in his debut and he has two LEGIT passing targets in WR Josh Magee and TE Gerald Everett. These guys were uncoverable, particularly Everett. Davis threw quite a few dimes but these guys did great work themselves and combined for 15 grabs and just over 200 yards and 2 TD. Miss St has talent in the secondary but also some unprovens and they did very little to make me feel good about their prospects of defending Samuel and Edwards this week, assuming USCe goes with Orth. All in all, the missed FG by Vandy late and missed chip shot FG by Miss St to win prob swung this point spread a full TD from around 12.5 to 6.5. That being said, prob too many uncertainties to back Miss St but I tend to think we will see some points scored but will wait and see closer to kick, want to read up on practice this week. S Alabama in a terrible spot coming off the biggest win in school history (HC Jones commented in the paper today that the alums still talk about beating Bama in basketball in 1989 and no telling how long they will talk about this win..) USA actually beat San Diego State last year in overtime. My guess is they did some partying after... The next week, trip to NC State and they get boat raced 63-13. They host GA Southern this week who also boat raced them last year 55-17. There will be points scored in Mobile and perhaps further transitive SEC embarrassment at the hands of GA Southern.

Arkansas/La Tech - Where did the explosive Arkansas offense go? Sure, losing the elder Allen hurts and they replace some guys on the OL but my goodness they looked like September Arkansas. The difference is, they won. Unlike last year when Toledo inexplicably beat them (Check out that box score while you're on the can). I'm as big a Dan Enos fan boy as there is but I thought he had a really poor offensive game plan. Little Allen was ok. At times, from a delivery and mannerism standpoint I could have sworn he was Brandon. The OL and the game plan were poor. I don't think either will be long term issues but I don't like September Arkansas, I like November Arkansas and maybe we will see that trend continue. TCU apparently was supposed to have a good defense like GP actually used to field but they aren;t there yet. People who follow TCU closer than I claim it often takes him some time to get his defense adjusted and they haven't given up hope but I'm not exactly ready to give them the benefit of the doubt following their shredding by the JackRabbits and the product they put out all last year. Switching back gears again, I was impressed by La Tech. Skip Holtz is a worthy ATS underdog. I used to play him almost blindly as a dog years ago but I got away from trends in a lot of ways and now I constantly find myself upset that I don't follow him in that role more closely. The Hogs defense was much better than last season but its also hard to measure how the losses of the La Tech skill guys has really impacted them. I'll temper expectation there on vast improvement and I'm comfortable saying La Tech will regress offensively, improve defensively and you could say the same for Arkansas. Keon Hatcher back at WR for the hogs was a huge addition. Arky's longest play from scrimmage was 18 yards which is mind blowing considering how explosive they were last season. Also, Jeremy Sprinkle at TE looks to have gotten in better shape and if I'm an NFL team I'm watching him closely. I think Arky/TCU is lined and totaled appropriately. I hesitated on taking Arky at open +10 and then lost the number but I'm not all that mad about. Many people will play the over in this game and I wanted to before I saw either team in week 1, however, I think it's lined and totaled appropriately right now.

Going to post this now so I don't lose any text and then give thoughts on other games shortly.
 
Tenn/App St - I didn't see any part of the game when App St did their scoring. I turned it on right when they went up 13-3. From what I did see an what I've gathered, Tenn got bullied in the trenches. I continue to be unimpressed with Dobbs and you guess it, I'm knocking another offensive coordinator. This guy is a clown and I don't respect any product that he is engineering. It's clear he doesn't trust Dobbs and I can't say I particularly blame him considering he often has accuracy issues past 7 yards but his super conservative style cost them games last year and almost cost them the opener this year. Good news is they have a real nice DC but the OC is a butt head. Still not much impresses me with their skill guys on the perimeter but I love the Hurd/Kamara duo and they make a seemngly inept offense moderately functional. App St QB impressed me mostly with his toughness. Just really appreciated his poise and he is a good athlete - their RB, Cox, looked to me to be the best RB on the field... I said it in the pre season thread, maybe UT wins the East by default but they certainly didn't do anything to impress me or make me believe I was wrong on them being highly over valued. VT is prob a year away from beating UT but if Evans comes on quick I don't think it's that unlikely this isn't a game that goes down to the wire. I think Dobbs could be more hurt than is being let on after that Gilchrist hit and a few others so that is something I would handicap when looking at this game. VT going to move at Fuente pace now, if they are efficient that will go well, if not, they may feel some growing pains against an angry UT bunch. Foster's defense haven't particular done all that well against mobile QB in the past if memory serves me correctly so that's something to think about. I took UT +10.5 with a friend as a pre-season bet and its certainly the only side I would take in the game but I'm sorta, meh, on it. Similar to Arky/TCU, I think it's lined and totaled pretty appropriately.

Bama/USC - As a fan I was really happy. I was at Bama during the Shula days and the highlight of my gamedays were seeing a jump cut by Ken Darby and maybe beating S Miss and making a bowl. A lot has changed the past 10 years. Scoreline was obviously an aberration. 35-3 prob would have been a more appropriate scoreline and my under ticket was silly not to cash but when things went bad for USC they were catastrophic. If I'm a USC fan, I have serious concerns about all of my coaches from a gameday standpoint. Good recruiters, but game day... Les Miles says hello. I thought Hurts was really good for Bama. Between his debut, Buchele, Francois, Eason - those are going to be some fun guys to watch over the next few years. There was only one weakness for Bama on defense and that was Averett being target at nickel. Expect WKU to do more of the same. Just don't target anyone else and make sure it's a quick drop because if not it may go the other way and/or you may get your wig split. The pass rush with just the front 4 was unreal. Not too much more to add really other than I'm really happy with Bama performance, happy that Hurts will likely be the guy and unlike Kent St in two weeks, this group of 5 game could actually be entertaining. Big ask for the new WKU QB to do what they like to do against this defense. I don't envy him, good thing chicks dig scars. As far as USC goes, I'm pretty sure they never got in the red zone? 7.11 ypp to 2.70 ypp and I believe I saw some projection they are #1 and #2 in someone's opinion of talent or something like that.. Adoree' Jackson has a newfound fan in me - only guy I saw that competed the whole game and he absolutely blanked one of the nations best in Ridley. If I'm USC, no way I take a touchback the rest of the season, I have him field and return everything no matter how deep in end zone it is. I often wonder how a team's psyche is affected after the hype, prep, buildup of months all poured into one game and then to get punked like that... I will be betting against USC the next couple weeks.

Missouri/WVU - I hate watching both of these teams play. Seriously, it's the worst for me, but I endured it. I'll be brief, I don't like typing about them either. Mizzou defense I think will take step back and offense a step forward. I think they have the potential to make a 2 QB system work simply because Lock isn't good enough to have earned the full boat and Zanders has a totally different skill set and is a dynamic runner which they desparately need playmakers on offense. Bama WR transfer Chris Black was excellent and I wou;dn't be shocked to see him have another huge game against EMU. WVU was unlucky to be held to 26, they settled for 4 FG at the 15 or closer. 196 plays! I bet the over this week in the Missouri/EMU game and have a lean towards EMU as well but I don't trust them enough but I do expect them to contribute a fair bit to a total of 53.

Florida/Umass - Well, I got through my last recap without dogging an OC but I'm back on that train. What they heck Nussmeier?? Del Rio threw it 44 times... against UMass... in the rain... Just doesn't make sense. I havent read anything with Mac talking about what the thought was but I guess just getting him some throws under his belt? Because if you just want to put yourself in position to win a game, I don't recommend that as a good strategy when they could have just pulverized Umass on the ground. The OL didn't play well and was out of sync much like the offense as a whole. I had higher hopes for Del Rio and this offense and I won't over react but theyve gotta be better against a UK defense that just laid a total egg. Defensively, UF looked solid again but not a ton to be made from a game against Umass. If I can get 18 I'll prob take them with the Cats but I prefer to watch and learn - I do think the line is high given what we can infer about the UF offense to this point.

UW/LSU. LSU - Same ole, same ole.. Perhaps Wisconsin will exceed my extremely low expectation of them as a 7 win team this year, perhaps not. I won't ran on Cam Cameron here but it's common knowledge how big a mug he is. On a personal note, that had to be incredible for UW players and fans to get to play in that stadium and also get a win. That was cool and I won't cry over an LSU loss - esp when they looked as awful as they did offensively.

TAMU/UCLA - If Lamar Jackson played for Auburn and Josh Rosen for TAMU - their game on 9/17 would be a battle of #1 vs. #2 in the country. I'll start with this, I wasn't very impressed with Trevor Knight. I feel like just about every other drop back he was running in the wrong direction. He has an OC that will help put him into positions to be awesome and an embarrassment of skill at WR I'm just not sure he will be good enough to maximize it. That being said, he wasn't bad. I saw a lot worse QB play. I do thin the run game is vastly improved and couple that with a more Chavis-like defense we are used to, I don't know that he has to be great. On a personal note, I enjoyed seeing Josh Rosen lose. He's a tremendous talent and definitely the type of guy I would have fought in a bar in college. The DL was oustanding for the Ags. They should be and it's good to see them living up to the hype. It's a get well game for the Ags this week before the hot seat game with Malzahn. 180 plays including OT and it was still a terrible beat it went over the total. Without OT, I think the books would have cleaned up on this game as UCLA and OV seemed pretty popular.

Clemson/Auburn - Not too much to add here. Williams being back for Clemson is huge. That guy is fun to watch. Big credit to Auburn D, I had high expectations for the season but without over reacting I'm comfortable saying they could be super good. That DL is going to decimate the Arky St OL this week. Unfortunately, Auburn still doesn't have a QB. 3.64 ypp on offense isn't gonna cut it but if you can keep Clemson to 5.05, that will cut it. They look like a great under team right now unless Cam newton has a son I don't know about and enrolls at Auburn as a QB by October. I bet the Auburn/Arky St Under this week, think it should be totaled in 40's. I'm running out of steam

UNC/UGA - Another dumb game plan by UNC. You clearly could see Trubisky either wasn't ready/and or good enough to do what was asked of him against a defense with the caliber athlete and speed. How in the world do logan and hood combine for 16 carries....? UGA dominated TOP and the pressure that game plan put on Mitch was way too much. Logan is an electric athlete to pair with Hood. I need to see more of Trubisky before I infer too much but after the past two games the UNC team has played, they are right up there with the biggest bunch of goofs I've seen in terms of how ill-prepared theyve been - both in very different ways too. Chubb was incredible. Such an easy guy to root for and he delivered big time. He didnt look hesitant at all and Chaney/Smart weren't afraid to let him Derrick Henry the load with 32 carries. I thought Eason looked the part, not only in terms of play but in terms of him having the quintessential physical looks of a Georgia QB this millennia. Some of his best throws didn't show up on the stat sheet as they were several PI calls on the defense. I was impressed with both teams speed, especially with UGA defensively. I think Eason did enough to go ahead and give him the job and see what he can do for the next 3 years. Similar to Mark Richt, looks like UGA will get another really nice multi-year signal caller. UGA should smoke Nicchols state about 59-0 before heading to Mizzou. I think if nothing else, Kirby's outward passion is good for the UGA players and they responded well.

Kentucky/S Miss - Didn't see any and have read very little. Sounds like the UK defense was worse than I expected and offense better. As previosuly mentioned, will watch how they fare against UF or bet them if UF takes a bunch of money.
 
Just realized I forgot the game last night.

Ole Miss/FSU - What a game! Everybody saw it so I won't recap much. Here is what I will say. They are thin on defense and that is already taking its toll. Throw in they are going to get cut blocked 50 times this week on a couple days rest and then have Bama and UGA come to town the next couple weeks.. Dangerous times in the grove. I was watching SEC Now yesterday and Greg McElroy (He has brilliant insight many times, IMO) mentioned how he felt that in an offensive system lke Ole Miss' the tackle play is less valuable than interior line play due to many quick drops and the need for OL to get up field to next level to secure blocks in order for many plays to work. I was concerned about the Ole Miss OL heading into the season so I watch that unit a lot last night, specifically the interior. That's right where Demarcus Walker punished for a payday to the tune of about 20 TFL. Bama likely to do similar damage in couple weeks and UGA to a slightly lesser extent. As has been noted, Wofford runs triple option and this game situationally is awful for Ole Miss. I knew I would bet Wofford or the over but I elected to go with the over due to the history of Freeze versus FCS and recent early season lessers - here are a few of those score:

76-3 UT Martin
73-21 Fresno St
56-15 ULL
48-0 Presbytyrian
31-13 SEMO
59-14 Idaho
51-21 Troy

My biggest concerns would be they are tired of being cut down in the 2H, they want to get out without losing anybody else and they just run it out earlier than he has shown he likes to do in past. my hope is that they score every possession in the 1H, run crazy tempo which creates mismatches and they put their tired defense back out there a bunch before Bama comes to town and we bury them 56-0 in 10 days. I could see this one playing out a few ways but I do like Wofford to score a couple times and I think Ole Miss can score 8+ TD and take care of the whole total pretty much by themselves. I think we see a motivated Kelly that could go Lamar Jackson after that and possibly* get Shea in the 2H which also bodes well for points.
 
Re: USC, I echo your thoughts on Adoree. He continued to get after it even when the rest of the team quit. I'm not sure they are fade material at this point. It was very apparent that their players look really good in pads, but they were not ready for a game of this magnitude. I understand why they hired Helton, but I'm not sure he's the guy to take them where they want and expect to be
 
Just realized I forgot the game last night.

Ole Miss/FSU - What a game! Everybody saw it so I won't recap much. Here is what I will say. They are thin on defense and that is already taking its toll. Throw in they are going to get cut blocked 50 times this week on a couple days rest and then have Bama and UGA come to town the next couple weeks.. Dangerous times in the grove. I was watching SEC Now yesterday and Greg McElroy (He has brilliant insight many times, IMO) mentioned how he felt that in an offensive system lke Ole Miss' the tackle play is less valuable than interior line play due to many quick drops and the need for OL to get up field to next level to secure blocks in order for many plays to work. I was concerned about the Ole Miss OL heading into the season so I watch that unit a lot last night, specifically the interior. That's right where Demarcus Walker punished for a payday to the tune of about 20 TFL. Bama likely to do similar damage in couple weeks and UGA to a slightly lesser extent. As has been noted, Wofford runs triple option and this game situationally is awful for Ole Miss. I knew I would bet Wofford or the over but I elected to go with the over due to the history of Freeze versus FCS and recent early season lessers - here are a few of those score:

76-3 UT Martin
73-21 Fresno St
56-15 ULL
48-0 Presbytyrian
31-13 SEMO
59-14 Idaho
51-21 Troy

My biggest concerns would be they are tired of being cut down in the 2H, they want to get out without losing anybody else and they just run it out earlier than he has shown he likes to do in past. my hope is that they score every possession in the 1H, run crazy tempo which creates mismatches and they put their tired defense back out there a bunch before Bama comes to town and we bury them 56-0 in 10 days. I could see this one playing out a few ways but I do like Wofford to score a couple times and I think Ole Miss can score 8+ TD and take care of the whole total pretty much by themselves. I think we see a motivated Kelly that could go Lamar Jackson after that and possibly* get Shea in the 2H which also bodes well for points.

Those OLmen need their legs so they can get fully downfield on pass plays
 
Re: USC, I echo your thoughts on Adoree. He continued to get after it even when the rest of the team quit. I'm not sure they are fade material at this point. It was very apparent that their players look really good in pads, but they were not ready for a game of this magnitude. I understand why they hired Helton, but I'm not sure he's the guy to take them where they want and expect to be

I think the way i phrased that made it sound like I was fading them due to them quitting or not being good but I think its more situationally and matchup oriented. Utah State is a really dangerous group of 5 with an offense that rates to have some, not a ton, of success and a defense that was awesome last year is rebuilding but has potential. Early start in LA after the big game in Dallas. I heard a stat to which I havent fact checked that USC hasnt score a 1Q TD since Utah last season on Oct 24. No idea if true I want to look it up but could be one of those things that a slow start and the pressure builds. Then the trip to Stanford and then to Utah who has, IMO, the best HFA in CFB. So I don't hate them I just think there are some matchups and intangibles that could lead to a catastrophic start. I feel very confident in saying they start 1-3 and wouldnt be shocked with 0-4 if Utah State can replicate similar defense to LY
 
I went back and fact checked it. USC has scored one first quarter TD in it's past 8 games dating back to October of 2015. As mind boggling as it is, the Bama game was the first time they have led at the end of the 1Q in that stretch. I prob accidentally unearthed somebody's USC 1Q fade ATM. If so, sorry!

7-0
7-0
7-3
14-7
7-3
3-0
0-0

0-3
 
As discussed last week, here are my PR lines.

Florida -11.5
Alabama -22.5
Vanderbilt -9.5
Arkansas +6
State -14
Auburn -12.5
Tennessee -10
Missouri -23
 
Added:

Syracuse +14'
Arkansas +7'
Duke -5
Arkansas St +19'
Kentucky +17
Va Tech +11'
Georgia Southern -13
UTEP +29
Utah St +16'
 
Tenn/App St - I didn't see any part of the game when App St did their scoring. I turned it on right when they went up 13-3. From what I did see an what I've gathered, Tenn got bullied in the trenches. I continue to be unimpressed with Dobbs and you guess it, I'm knocking another offensive coordinator. This guy is a clown and I don't respect any product that he is engineering. It's clear he doesn't trust Dobbs and I can't say I particularly blame him considering he often has accuracy issues past 7 yards but his super conservative style cost them games last year and almost cost them the opener this year. Good news is they have a real nice DC but the OC is a butt head. Still not much impresses me with their skill guys on the perimeter but I love the Hurd/Kamara duo and they make a seemngly inept offense moderately functional. App St QB impressed me mostly with his toughness. Just really appreciated his poise and he is a good athlete - their RB, Cox, looked to me to be the best RB on the field... I said it in the pre season thread, maybe UT wins the East by default but they certainly didn't do anything to impress me or make me believe I was wrong on them being highly over valued. VT is prob a year away from beating UT but if Evans comes on quick I don't think it's that unlikely this isn't a game that goes down to the wire. I think Dobbs could be more hurt than is being let on after that Gilchrist hit and a few others so that is something I would handicap when looking at this game. VT going to move at Fuente pace now, if they are efficient that will go well, if not, they may feel some growing pains against an angry UT bunch. Foster's defense haven't particular done all that well against mobile QB in the past if memory serves me correctly so that's something to think about. I took UT +10.5 with a friend as a pre-season bet and its certainly the only side I would take in the game but I'm sorta, meh, on it. Similar to Arky/TCU, I think it's lined and totaled pretty appropriately.

You are spot on with this. I have been hearing that he is hurting more than is being reported. I can understand why as well. No telling how many punches he would take in a pile after a run. And TN success is centered around his running ability.
 
Great-looking card this week. I'm really starting to love the Syracuse play. Over at Covers, you see squares hyping the UL offense. Let's tap the brakes a bit!

I looked at the UL schedule last year and looked at their performance against the top 7 Ds they faced. Auburn was the only one they gained 100 yards rushing against (48-238). It's not the same team this year, but 25-70 vs. Houston, 28-19 vs. Clemson, 30-99 vs. Fla. St., 48-135 vs. BC, 42-68 vs. Wake, and 24--1 vs. Pitt is pitiful. So that O still has a lot of questions to be answered. Cuse's D isn't very good, but they were 6-1 ATS at home last year, including easy covers vs, LSU and Clemson. And this is major flat spot before the huge matchup with FSU.
 
I'm not around much and barely post anymore, but this always is a thread I find each week. Great stuff.

So so glad football is here. BOL.
 
So I went back today and watched the first 3Q of the TCU/SDSU game. Here are my thoughts and how it may pertain to this week's game against Arkansas.

First off, there was nothing flukish about SDSU doing what they did. They did rely on big plays to get there and were the beneficiaries of a couple early turnovers but they certainly looked the part. I didn't see a ton to like about their defense but they were a good offensive team. From a run game standpoint they were tons of zone read and RPO - a totally different offense than what Arky will bring to town. They did a really nice job doing some pre-snap motion and that just befuddled TCU. The secondary play for TCU was really, really bad. Texada (#11) is their best cover corner and I use best very loosely. He is only 5'10 and isn't good enough with his hands to defend against taller receivers without interfering. SDSU has a tall white boy that torched him all game long. He finished with 8 catches for 196 and 2TD. They mentioned on the broadcast this is his 3rd 100+ receiving yard game against FBS teams in his career so maybe he really just is a stud. The other area where the TCU secondary got exploited was with their big TE. He finished with 96 on 5 catches and a TD. The reason I bring up both of those things is because I would think Arky could exploit them in similar fashion. Wieneke is 6'4 215 and Goedert is 6'4 250 and their size and route running was an issue. Hatcher is 6'2, Sprinkle 6'6 (future NFL HOFer) and Reed is 6'4 for the hogs. TCU played pretty soft in coverage and that was something that Enos consistently took advantage of last season as well as the play action and draw. I mentioned the pre-snap motion really being an issue and I'm far from a collegiate level offensive scout but when I can watch a game once and see that I have a lot of confidence they will see it as well. The OL was definitely bad for Arky last game and the good news is SDSU managed to throw for 333 yards with very little run game to keep them honest - the RB broke a 90 yarder early in game but other than that their zone read was really ineffective (they would have been about 1 ypc other than the long one). So while I still have some concerns with what Arky did against LT, I came away feeling better about their chances to have more offensive success than I anticipated. On to the TCU offense, they were good. Their pace was lightning fast right out of the gate and I think that was a good look for them. Trill was a little loose with the football and turned it over a few times but I think he is a good fit for what they want to do in this offense. Williams and Turpin are super dynamic and exactly the types of players that gave Arky fits last season. While I do maintain that they should be better on defense, I don't know that this is the game where that will bare fruit. Former HS #1 RB and Michigan transfer Derrick Green only got 5 carries but he looks to be a big, strong back that I personally would probably have given more opportunities to were it my decision. I'm starting to warm up to the idea of this being a better OVER bet as I can see multiple ways it gets there.
 
Thanks to all of you for posting your work.

I am too busy to do much handicapping this year so I just entered a couple of contests (which I enjoy more than betting with the books) and hope to ride the good handicappers on this thread and on this board for a few wins.

Excellent thread.
 
Great stuff guys, appreciate all the info.

Of note for Arkansas St, they are dealing with a virus that is going through the locker room, with 12 players having been hospitalized this week. No idea as to who they players are, but it bears watching. I'm not sure AU's offense can cover 20 points against anyone right now, but makes me a bit nervous about backing the Red Wolves
 
Adding a few totals:

TCU/Ark OV 58'
Alabama/WKU UN 61'
Pitt/PSU UN 48
 
A few quick thoughts on Alabama:

WKU is not your usual Sun Belt pushover, but there is still a large talent gap. They will test our defense, particularly the back 7. I think this is a great way to prepare for Ole Miss in week 3. Because of the opponent, and where it falls in the schedule, I definitely think the let down potential is high, but could be mitigated somewhat by there being ongoing position battles at several spots, most notably at QB. This is normally a spot where I'd advocate taking WKU, but how good our defense is and Lane and Saban wanting to get two QBs meaningful reps could lead to some late Alabama scores to get over the number. To me this game has 35-10, 41-13 written all over it, so I think the under is the safest play. I would also be equally unsurprised with a 31-20 win, or 45-0 win, thus the under play. I do not think WKU will score more than 24, and I imagine the Alabama offense will not be quite as efficient as against USC

Will be adding some team totals when my book releases them on Saturday. There are several big favorites I like, but don't like the spread #. Looking at Oregon, tOSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Clemson, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Probably a few team unders too, most likely Iowa St for reasons discussed in the B1G thread. Good luck to everyone, I'll be around more this weekend, looking to keep this good start rolling
 
Not that it would change anyone's thoughts about the team, but rumors are that Jeremy Johnson has left AU's team. This time last year he was considered a favorite for the Heisman. What a fall.
 
Not that it would change anyone's thoughts about the team, but rumors are that Jeremy Johnson has left AU's team. This time last year he was considered a favorite for the Heisman. What a fall.

Gus Malzahn has really done him a dis-service.
 
Gus gave him every opportunity in the world, IMO. Bottom line is Johnson hasn't performed up to his potential against any quality opponent and is part of the reason Gus is on the hot seat right now. Gus has to do what gives the team the best chance to succeed. With the potential of the defense, looks to me like AU needs a game manager type that doesn't throw it to the other team (White).
 
Gus gave him every opportunity in the world, IMO. Bottom line is Johnson hasn't performed up to his potential against any quality opponent and is part of the reason Gus is on the hot seat right now. Gus has to do what gives the team the best chance to succeed. With the potential of the defense, looks to me like AU needs a game manager type that doesn't throw it to the other team (White).

The problem is, as the article states, Malzahn has done nothing to develop him during his tenure at Auburn. If fact, it could be argued he is a worse QB today than the one who arrived fresh out of high school.
 
Gus gave him every opportunity in the world, IMO. Bottom line is Johnson hasn't performed up to his potential against any quality opponent and is part of the reason Gus is on the hot seat right now. Gus has to do what gives the team the best chance to succeed. With the potential of the defense, looks to me like AU needs a game manager type that doesn't throw it to the other team (White).

I agree with this, have watched enough to see him get opportunity over opportunity just to look like failure. He could lose you games, not win them.

Regression set in like Logan Thomas, no confidence, next thing you know...you're hoping not to turn it over.
 
Good luck GPS.

I was watching highlights of L Jackson (and just saw some more on espn2) ... he is one of those runners that looks not fast but is fast .. like a VY. Secret, sneaky speed. Dome historically awesome in these weeknight spots, i believe. good luck
 
Thanks clowncar. Going out with the wife so I won't have to watch if it turns into a track meet. Really considering betting on Mizzou tomorrow after reading your analysis, just tough to back that offense just yet.
 
Totally agree...the whole thing has always been confidence since he threw 3/4 picks in the season opener against louisville last year. The befuddling thing to me all along has been he ran an offense similar to gus' in high school. But he just looks completely lost out there. He (along with gus' decision to repeatedly put him in the game in critical situations) cost auburn the game last week. Hate to see it happen to a, by all accounts, great kid, but enough is enough. I'd like to see him get in some special 2 qb packages as a decoy, etc. but i hope, as an auburn fan and grad, that jeremy johnson's days of taking snaps at auburn are over. Honestly, if the situation were a little different and Gus wasnt taking so much heat, I think JF3 is the best suited qb to run gus' offense. Gus just doesnt want to take that big of a risk with so much on the line this season, imo.
 
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