gps_3 Week 12

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making

Week 11: 8-4 +13.25 units

2013: 103-95 +22.9 units


Week 12:

UGA +4 (2.5u)
Baylor -27 (5u)
Ball St +9' (2u)
Miami OH TT U 14' (2u)
Marshall TT O 37 (5u)
Duke +3' (2.5u)
Louisville -16 (2.5u)
Alabama -23' (2.5u)
Clem/GT 2H O 29 (2.5u)​
Washington TT O 29 (2.5u)
Wisconsin TT O 47 (2.5u)
Wisconsin 1h -16 (2.5u)
UGA TT O 30' (5u)
Alabama -13' 1H (5u)
FSU -24 1H (2.5u)
UGA/Duke ML 1/4.96
Miss st TT u 14' (2.5u)
Alabama 2h -10 (2.5u)
 
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My change in strategy worked well, and would have been better if I hadn't gotten caught in the Texas Tech, Houston, and Arizona traps. Every other bet I made cruised.

Onto week 12. First glance, saw some games I liked.

Intrigued with Duke getting 3 at home against the Canes. I'm of the opinion that the FSU loss crushed the spirit of a mediocre team that was ranked well above it's talent level, and can see the best Duke team in my lifetime getting the W here. Will need to look into a bit more, and hope to see the line get driven up a bit more.

Will likely be on FSU 1H and team total over as I think this is a team on a mission to destroy everything in their path on the way to Pasadena.

Think Baylor lays it on a Texas Tech team that is reeling. Baylor needs to win with style to have any chance of getting into the top 2

Ditto Ohio St. 1H and TT over

will look to follow gyno on fading the UAB defense with the ECU TT Over

As you can see, I like team total overs. Maybe square, but it's worked out for me.

Good luck guys, SEC thoughts coming...
 
GoIrish! said:
not on your boys this weekend? I feel 25 pts is a little short or do you expect hangover?
Click to expand...

I'm leaning toward taking Miss St TT under. This is the kind of game Bama has won something like 31-10 in the past. But this is the healthiest we've been after LSU in several years, so maybe we blow them out.
 
Steele's SEC Notes from week 11:

Missouri’s Maty Mauk hit 17-28-203 yards and 5 td’s and James Franklin even got back in the game in the 4Q seeing a little action. If MO wins out they are going to the SEC Title game. MO only had a 426-369 yard edge but on the scoreboard won this one by 31 points. Kentucky opened with a 76/8pl drive but after a 1&gl settled for a 21 yard FG. After a 13 yard shanked punt, MO went 39/3pl for a td. MO then blocked a punt and drove 4 yards for a td, 14-3. MO went 67/10 and 87/15pl for a pair of td’s to lead 28-3 at the half with a 252-105 yard edge. UK went 73/13pl for a td to open the 3Q but then fumbled at its own 44. MO went 44/3 for a td, 35-10 (6:13 3Q). UK went 75/8pl and got a 1 yard td run, 35-17. MO got a 63 yard KR to the UK31. On 4&3, a 7 yard td pass capped the 31/5pl drive, 41-17. Henry Josey ripped off an 86 yard td run on their next drive, 48-17. MO fumbled at its own 46 with 7:03 left and UK’s last drive got to the MO24 where on 4&3 they were SOD

Georgia was a very banged up football team and were taking on Appalachian St which came in just 2-7 after dealing with a coaching change this year. ASt lost its 8th game for the first time since 1979. If I was HC Richt I would have rested all of my key players with a big game vs Auburn on deck but Todd Gurley played and had 13 carries for 75 yards. Aaron Murray hit 19-26-281 and even Michael Bennett had 5 catches for 87 yards. ASt QB Kameron Bryant opened 8-8 passing for 73 yards and finished 22-39-221. UGA SS Corey Moore was ejected in the 2Q. As expected, UGA went through the motions in the 1H. ASt went 62/13pl for a 33 yard FG on their first drive and 50/8pl for a 49 yard FG on their 2nd while UGA had a 72/6pl drive for a td and it was 7-6. UGA was intercepted on its next possession but ASt had a 49 yard FG blocked. UGA went 68/7pl for a td then on 4&5 was SOD at the AS46. ASt missed a 46 yard FG with 3:23 left in the half and UGA only led 14-6 at the half with a 210-185 yard edge. UGA went 48/7 for a 42 yard FG then on its 2nd possession, 68/8 for a 2 yard td run by Gurley, 24-6. Their 3rd 3Q possession went 60/4pl for a td, 31-6. ASt fumbled and UGA went 49/5pl for a 3 yard td run, 38-6. Hutson Mason came in at QB with 10:55 left. UGA went 67/7pl for a td and their next drive they had a 4&7 at the 35 and were intercepted and returned 15 yards at the 41 with 2:40 left. UGA had 568-253 yard and 27-17 FD edges.

Vanderbilt knocked off Georgia and Florida in the same season for the first time in school history. It was interesting that when Jeff Driskel went down early in the year and Tyler Murphy had a good first game many commentators nationally said they may be in better shape with Murphy at QB. Murphy turned the ball over 5 times and that was the difference in UF losing to VU. In fact, you would think VU’s offense was potent as they outscored UF 34-17 but they had td “drives” of 10, 22 and 4 yards all following Murphy TO’s. At the half they led 17-3 but UF had a 140-92 yard edge. UF now has to win 2 of their last 3 just to become bowl eligible. VU opened with one of their best drives of the game going 62/14pl but settled for a 31 yard FG, 3-0. UF took its opening drive 48/12pl but missed a 44 yard FG. After Murphy was intercepted and returned 20 yards, VU drove 10 yards for a td. Murphy was intercepted and returned 28 yards to the 22 setting up a VU td and UF trailed 17-0. The Gators then went 85/17pl and had a 1&gl at the 1 yard line. Amazingly they settled for a 23 yard FG and trailed 17-3 and appropriately Murphy was sacked and fumbled at midfield with :21 left in the half. Murphy opened the 3Q in the same fashion being intercepted on the 3rd play and VU drove 4 yards for a td after a 38 yard IR. UF went 75/11pl for a td, 24-10, but VU put together its best offensive drive of the game 87/17pl and got a 1 yard td run. The drive contained 3&6 and 4&1 conversions. UF went 37/11pl but punted on 4&31 after a sack and a PF. UF went 73/6pl for a td with 7:40 left. UF took over with 5:18 left, got 3 FD to the VU41 but on 4&23 was sacked for a 26 yard loss back to its own 20 and VU got a 31 yard FG with :45 left.

Nick Marshall ran for 214 yards and Auburn piled up 444 yards on the ground vs Tennessee. The return game was also huge. Chris Davis had an 85 yard PR, Auburn’s longest since 1970 then Corey Grant got a 90 yard KR td to open the 2H – the first time ever that Auburn had scored on a PR and KR in the same game. Auburn attempted just 7 passes all game hitting 3 with 1 interception. UT was playing its 5th straight opponent ranked 11th or higher. UT took its first drive 53/9pl but settled for a 39 yard FG. Auburn got a 42 yard PR by Davis down to the UT22 setting up a 2&13, 25 yard td pass to lead 6-3 (xp blocked). UT went 50/11pl but settled again for a 42 yard FG. At this point the Vols had a 107-25 yard edge but the game was tied at 6. UT went 57/4pl for a td to lead 13-6 but AU got a 62 yard run by Marshall on the first play of the next drive, then a 13 yard td run by Mason. Davis’ 85 yard PR 7pl later putting AU ahead 20-13 and the Tigers drove 85/6pl for another td, 27-13. UT got an 18 yard IR td by Jacques Smith with 1:28 left but after a 33 yard KR to the UT45, Marshall ripped off a 38 yard td run to give AU momentum at the half, 34-20. At the half AU had a 280-247 yard edge. The Tigers got a 90 yard KR for a td to open the 3Q. UT went on an 11pl drive and again settled for a 40 yard FG and AU went 55/8pl for a td to put it away, 48-23 (7:52 3Q). Two possessions later, AU went 72/12pl for a td with 13:07 left, 55-23. UT was SOD on 4&1 at the AU28 with 9:35 left and AU went to the ground running the ball all 14 times for 67 yards getting to the UT5.

Ole Miss’ Bo Wallace hit 26-33-407 yards with a lot of big passes including a 75 yard td to Ja-Mes Logan.Arkansas clinched the fact they would not be going to a bowl in Bret Bielema’s first year dropping to 3-7 and 0-6 in SEC play on the season. UA did have a 196-112 yard rushing edge but UM finished with a 531-381 yard edge. Each team opened with a short drive for a long FG, 3-3. UM went 82/12pl for a td then went 93/10pl. They had 1&gl at the 2 but settled for a 19 yard FG and led 13-3 (10:18 2Q). Two possessions later UA went 80/6pl for a td to get within 13-10 with just 2:43 left in the half. UM got 1 FD and on 3&10 a 10 yard pass got them to midfield and they would continue on a 75/8pl drive getting a 14 yard td pass with :45 left in the half to go up 20-10. UM had a 290-155 yard edge at the half. UM was intercepted on the 3pl of the 3Q and UA went 46/6pl for a td, 20-17. After an exchange of punts, UM got a 75 yard td pass to Logan, 27-17 then a 52 yard td pass to Donte Moncrief on its next drive, 34-17. UA went 40/6pl to the UM35 but was intercepted in the EZ with 13:53 left. UA went 87/13pl getting a 20 yard td pass to pull within 34-24. UM went 51/9pl but on 4&6 was intercepted at the UA2. The Hogs would go 52/12pl but with :50 left on 4&10 tried a 58 yard FG to get within 1 score then had an onside kick. The FG had the distance but was wide.

It was likely Johnny Manziel’s final home game at Kyle Field and he hit 30-39-446 yards but had 3 interceptions. He set a Texas A&M record for career total yards at over 9,000 and a single season record 31 td passes. Tyler Russell got the start at QB for Mississippi St but Dak Prescott entered on the 3rd series. Unfortunately Prescott lost his mother to cancer on Sunday but had a solid game hitting 14-26-149 and led MSU in rushing with 154 yards on 16 carries playing inspired ball. However, he suffered an elbow injury in the 4Q and is “officially questionable” for this week’s game. MSU was SOD at the A&M38 on their 2nd possession and A&M went 62/6pl for a td. Josh Robinson got a 51 yard td run for MSU, 7-7 (5:28 1Q). A&M went 65/11pl but Manziel was intercepted at the 1 and returned 8 yards. A&M blocked a punt for safety then after the free kick, went 62/4pl to lead 16-7 after 1Q. 4 punts. After a PF on A&M on a PR, MSU went 35/5pl for a 3 yard td pass to pull within 16-14 with :54 left in the half but A&M went 75/4pl for an 11 yard td pass with :16 left, 23-14. At the half A&M had a 294-191 yard edge. Manziel was intercepted on his first 3Q possession at midfield but MSU missed a 40 yard FG. A&M then went 76/6pl for a td. Manziel was intercepted at the MSU4 with 4:13 left 3Q and the Bulldogs went 96/9pl for a td, 30-20. The next 3 possessions were all td’s as A&M broke out to a 44-27 lead with 13:54 left. MSU was intercepted at their own 42 and returned 15 yards and the Aggies tacked on a 27/5pl drive for a td, 51-27 (10:52).MSU went 75/10pl and 58/8pl for a pair of td’s, 51-41 with 2:19 left but A&M recovered the onside kick. MSU had a 556-537 yard edge and 30-29 FD edge.

Last week I mentioned that my computer called for Alabama to have a 21 point win and that is exactly what they did. They probably weren’t quite as dominant as the final would indicate but did have 372-284 yard and 25-16 FD edges. AJ McCarron hit 14-20-179 and Zach Mettenberger looked good at times hitting 16-23-241. TJ Yeldon rushed for 133 yards. LSU took its opening drive 85/9pl and FB JC Copeland appeared headed for the td but had the ball knocked down from behind. After a Bama punt, the snap hit off of Mettenberger’s stomach in the shotgun and Bama recovered at the LSU27 but would settle for a 41 yard FG, 3-0. LSU went 57/8pl for a td and a 7-3 lead. Bama answered with a 52 yard td pass 10-7. Bama then went 80/10pl for a td with 5:17 left in the half, 17-7. This time LSU answered going 75/10pl getting a 6 yard td pass with :43 left and at the half they trailed 17-14 but LSU had a 232-193 yard edge. LSU opened the 3Q with a 50/6pl drive for a 41 yard FG, 17-17. Bama rolled the dice on its next drive. After 1 FD they faced a 4&2 from their own 41 and Saban called for a time-out first then a fake punt and got a 6 yard run. They would dominant from there as Bama went 79/14pl and got a 4 yard td run, then went 71/10pl and got a 1 yard td run to go up 31-17 with 10:31 left. Odell Beckham returned the KO 82 yards to the UA18 but on 4&3 Mettenberger went for it and his pass was incomplete. Bama then went 79/8pl and got a 3 yard td pass with 4:10 left to go up by 21. LSU on 4&27 was sacked at its own 24 with 1:55 left.


 
Week 12 SEC games:

Vanderbilt -12' vs UK
Letdown and lookahead spot for Vandy after their historic win at Florida last Saturday and Tennessee on deck, but I think Franklin gets them ready for this one since a victory gets them bowl-eligible, and Kentucky sucks really bad. Could only bet Vandy here

S. Carolina -13 vs UF
UF has quit and Spurrier has a chance to rub it in? Count me in. SC can close out their SEC schedule with a better than average chance to win the East, while Florida decides which coaches they want to fire at the end of the season

Auburn -3' vs UGA
Even though AU has been a covering machine the last few weeks while running for a million yards, I think this game ends up being a close shootout. Gurley should be as healthy as he's been since getting injured, and while not 100%, he's probably the best RB in the country so anything he can contribute will be better than the alternative. AU has a potent running attack, but they haven't played a run defense in the top 50 yet, although some of that is because those teams played AU. UGA has a decent enough defense and they definitely have the offensive weapons to take advantage of AU's weaknesses on defense, the back 7. Not impressed with Marshall as a thrower, so he'll need to show something before I'm ready to believe he can win a game with his arm. AU's fanbase is already looking toward being the team that beats Alabama and possibly playing for a national championship (a topic for another day), and if the team has any of those thoughts, they will find themselves on the wrong end of the scoreboard in this one. I bet UGA at +4 because I think Murray and Gurley can score enough to keep this one close and I believe they will have a chance to win it in the 4th quarter

Miss St +25' vs Alabama
Let down spot for Alabama here, but they have played MSU the week after LSU 4 of the last 5 years and have won by 25, 28, 20, and 17 in those games. A win here could possibly clinch a spot in the SECCG if AU slips up earlier in the day. This is the healthiest Alabama has been after playing LSU in years, so I don't think that will be a factor. MSU is playing 2 QBs right now, even though Prescott is clearly better IMO. I think the line is spot on as this feels like a 31-7, 38-10 type game. I'm going to look to bet MSU TT under here, maybe Alabama 1H

Ole Miss -28' vs Troy
Both of these teams can score, and both give up points. 4+ TDs is too much to lay with Ole Miss, especially with Missouri on deck. Over worth a look here
 
I write a weekly article in a newsletter a couple of friends put together ... Most of it is random shit, however I always do SEC picks ... Thought I'd add to the thread my thoughts ...

SEC WEEK 12 PREVIEW, THOUGHTS AND PICKS
11:00am Troy Trojans at Ole Miss Rebels -28 o/u68.5
The Trojans are definitely going to need some protection this weekend! The Rebs are finally starting to get healthy. I think Freeze will still do some resting, but it may be late in the 3rd qtr or even 4th qtr after letting Arky get back into the game a couple times last week. We do have Mizz on the horizon however, so I don’t anticipate a lot of risk or TOM-fullery. Other than the MS State game, Trojans have scored 30+ points per game. They’ve played some pretty shitty teams but I do expect them to put up SOME points on the board. I like the over here and I think the Rebs score enough to get the cover regardless of any resting that may come in the 4th qtr. Don’t be surprised if the over is covered on a garbage TD late in the game. Ole Miss 48 – Troy 23

11:21am Kentucky Wildcats at Vandy Rapiers -12 o/u53
I can call them the Rapiers, because one of the main guys is from my home town and graduated from my high school. Definitely doesn’t make it cool or right, fucking idiots. Fucking wrong. Kentucky is garbage. Vandy currently sits at 5-4, don’t expect them to overlook this game, this is their bowling game. They play Tenn away next week, and Tenn has played good at home (upset South Caro) and have played HAM for their coach. Tenn is also 4-6, has an expected win against Kentucky to finish the season … so the Tenn game is not a given for Vandy, I actually have Tenn winning. Soooo …. This is a must win game for Vandy to secure another bowl game. Basically I got Vandy putting this away early. Vandy has faced some high-powered offenses this year, so the defensive stats might not show it, but I think they shut down the Kentucky offense the majority of the game. I’ll take the under here … Vandy 34 – Kentucky 17

2:30pm Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn -3.5 o/u65
One team that has underachieved (due to injuries) and one team that has overachieved, IMO. I’ll just go ahead and make my pick now, Bulldogs +3.5. Auburn has played nobody with a real rush defense. Passing Auburn is #110 out of 120, respectively they are #3 in rushing. Georgia sports a #20 defense against the run. Georgia continues to get weapons back on both offense and defense. Expect a good game here, but I give the edge to Jorga. Over/under could go either way, but I guess I’ll stab at the under. Georgia 34 – Auburn 30

6:00pm Florida Gators at South Carolina -12.5 o/u 41.5
IF you gamble, pound the shit out of South Carolina. Does Florida even stand a chance at getting 14 points??? Doubtful with their offense, maybe a defensive or special teams score but they aren’t going to score much at all. Florida crushed USC last year 44-11, look for the BIG FUCK YOU right back in their face this year. Florida’s defense has looked good this year, but I believe the offense has caused the defense to play with a little less effort the last few weeks giving up 36, 23 & 34 in all losses. USC offense has been blowing and going. They’ve scored 27+ points in all games this year, minus the Tenn game that still blows my mind. I think USC may end up covering the over themselves if they keep the pedal to the metal. A garbage TD or Def/Special Teams score from Florida and I’ll take the over here. USC 38 – Florida 10

6:45pm Alabama at MS State +24 o/u52
WTF … how fishy is this line??? First thing to note, MSU has only lost to ranked 25 teams. Sooooo ... I’ll try to give them a pass on their current 4-5 record. However, with the obvious exception of Johnny Football, Bama hasn’t won by less than 21, remove the LSU game & it becomes 25+. They’re currently 6-3 ATS this season, only not covering the TAMU spread by 1 & spreads of -40 & -54.5 against shit teams where they basically stopped playing after getting to 30+ points. I’ve read a few articles giving MSU a chance of keeping this with the spread. BULL FUCKING SHIT!!! Bama has a shit game on deck, no look ahead spot here. I’m taking Bama here and the over. Bama 45 – MSU 13
 
Figured this was an appropriate place to add to the SEC discussion, always a good thread ... Wish I had more time to contribute :Shake:
 
gps_3 said:
Week 12:

UGA +4 (2.5u)
Baylor -27 (5u)
Ball St +9' (2u)
Miami OH TT U 14' (2u)
Marshall TT O 37 (5u)
Duke +3' (2.5u)
Louisville -16 (2.5u)
Alabama -23' (2.5u)
Clem/GT 2H O 29 (2.5u)​
Washington TT O 29 (2.5u)
Click to expand...

Like every play except Louisville. But then again, what the hell do I know???
 
Good thoughts NYG. Don't disagree with any of that. Hope we all crush today. Will be adding some TT and 1H as my book makes them available
 
NYGiants25 said:
I write a weekly article in a newsletter a couple of friends put together ... Most of it is random shit, however I always do SEC picks ... Thought I'd add to the thread my thoughts ...

6:45pm Alabama at MS State +24 o/u52
WTF … how fishy is this line??? First thing to note, MSU has only lost to ranked 25 teams. Sooooo ... I’ll try to give them a pass on their current 4-5 record. However, with the obvious exception of Johnny Football, Bama hasn’t won by less than 21, remove the LSU game & it becomes 25+. They’re currently 6-3 ATS this season, only not covering the TAMU spread by 1 & spreads of -40 & -54.5 against shit teams where they basically stopped playing after getting to 30+ points. I’ve read a few articles giving MSU a chance of keeping this with the spread. BULL FUCKING SHIT!!! Bama has a shit game on deck, no look ahead spot here. I’m taking Bama here and the over. Bama 45 – MSU 13
Click to expand...

I agree that Alabama will easily cover this game, but the only way the OVER hits is if Alabama does it themselves. Mississippi State has scored an average of 5.7 points per game against Alabama, and this may be the best Alabama defense they have faced. Mississippi State doesn't have a snowflake's chance in hell of scoring 13 points. The best total play here would be to take the 2nd half UNDER. I would certainly not play OVER the total for the game.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
I expected to see you on the Auburn OVER again this week gps??? It looks too easy again.
Click to expand...

I almost bet it at 62', but I waited and it's in an area I'm not as confident in. I'm on uga TT o 30' though, may add AU TT o and split at worst
 
twinkie13 said:
Stone was on Washinton

FML....just found out, after my action bet

GL this weekend
Click to expand...

What a clown. Wonder what he told his clients after they lost the game of the year and had to buy a point so they paid 30 cent juice instead of a dime?
 
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