gps_3 Week 10

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 9: 12-13 -13.1 units

2013: 87-81 +17.4 units


Week 10:

UCLA -27 (3u)
UGA -2' (3u)
Clemson -16' (2u)
Northern Illinois -23' (2u)
Texas Tech -2' (2u)
Indiana -9' (2.5u)
TCU/WVU U 45' (2u)
Miami +22 (2.5u)
MSU/Mich U 46' (2u)
Northwestern +7 (2u)
Wash ST +12 (2u)
Oregon St -4 (2u)
N Texas -3
Houston TT O 36 (3u)
Arkansas +8 (2.5u)
Ohio St TT O 45 (3u)
Clemson TT O 37 (3u)
Texas -27' (2u)
 
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Had a pretty brutal run at the end of last Saturday's slate. Likely a mixture of booze and sitting in front of the tv all day, decided to add a ton of games. Luckily I had my biggest NFL day ever on Sunday. Thank you gambling gods for sparing me.

One game I'd like to get some discussion on is Auburn -8 @ Arkansas. Opened at 9 and moving in the opposite direction I would have guessed. Anybody got any ideas here? I figure I watch as much SEC as anyone here, and I thought this would be more like AU -13. I know AU has some QB health issues, but Arkansas is really bad. Maybe even historically bad. While I still think AU is a paper tiger, being the beneficiary of playing teams when it is most advantageous for them, and they remain pretty bad on defense, they are still in my mind much better than Arkansas. Arkansas has played spoiler to AU several times in the last 10-15 years, but I just don't see it this time around. Discuss...
 
SEC week 9 notes:

Mississippi St came into the Kentucky game with the gameplan of using both QB’s but Tyler Russell sprained his ankle on the first series and did not return. Dak Prescott hit 23-34-268 yards while rushing 16 times for 33 yards and also catching a td pass of 17 yards. MSU S Nickoe Whitley was ejected in the 2Q after his 2nd PF call in a 4pl span. MSU finished with a 447-325 yard edge but failed to put Kentucky away. After a UK punt to open the teams would drive for td’s on the next 3 poss. MSU led 14-7. UK missed a 47 yard FG and MSU appeared on their way to a route with a 63/10pl drive for a td with 10:14 left in the half, 21-7. MSU punted with 2:50 left in the half and UK went 52/9pl getting a 45 yard FG with :31 left. MSU missed a 47 yard FG on the final play of the half. They had a 296-202 yard edge and led 21-10. The first 3 poss of the 3Q opened with punts but MSU’s P mishandled the snap for a safety and after the free kick UK went 52/5pl for a td and shockingly it was back to 21-19. MSU went 74/7pl and handed off on a jet sweep to Lewis who threw a pass to QB Prescott for the td up 17 yards, 28-19. After an exchange of punts, UK took over at the MSU44, converting on 4&2 and would get a 44 yard FG with 8:15 left. MSU went on a 32/13pl drive with 3 FD’s but on 4&9 opted to go for it and threw inc with 2:08 left. UK had a shot at the win getting 2 FD’s to the MSU32 but on 4&7 from the 29, fired incomplete. Maxwell Smith hit 18-34-160 and Jalen Whitlow was questionable coming in.

Johnny Manziel was questionable vs Vanderbilt but he helped deliver an Inside the Pressbox Best Bet High Scoring Game of the Week winner as A&M beat VU 56-24 with a total of 80 pts! Manziel hit 25-35-305 and Matt Joeckel 3-6-28. Manziel did not practice until Friday and was still a little sore on Saturday. VU was without starting QB Austin Carta-Samuels and Patton Robinette filled in making his first road start and hit 15-28-216. Josh Grady hit 2-4-18 and he and Robinette comb’d for 2 int’s. The situation greatly favored A&M as they were a top 10 team, off a home loss vs an unranked team that had knocked off a ranked team at home the previous week in an emotional setting and had to travel. A&M appeared on its way to a blowout scoring td’s on the first 4 poss going 75/13, 66/6, 80/7, and 39/5pl (after 17 yard punt) to lead 28-0. VU actually battled back putting together a 69/10pl drive for a 23 yard FG then recovered an onside kick and went 44/4 for a td. Each team was SOD and then after a Manziel int, VU went 27/4pl for a td to get to 28-17 at the half. Texas A&M fumbled at the VU 27 with :02 left. A&M had a 344-203 yard edge. A&M got a 26 yard IR td on the first play of the 3Q and VU was SOD at their own 37 but A&M got a FD pass to the 1 and fumbled into the EZ for a TB costing them some points. They fumbled at their own 40 but on the next drive went 50/10pl for a 14 yard td pass, 42-17. VU was intercepted and A&M went 28/5pl for a td. After 2 punts, VU went 80/13pl getting a td with 9:32 left, 49-24 but with Hill at QB, A&M went 75/10pl getting a td with 5:08 left.

Alabama's win over Tennessee was their biggest MOV in this series since 1906. The Tide had 479-322 yard and 26-14 FD edges. AJ McCarron hit 19-27-275. Justin Worley 8-15-20 but was injured early 3Q and Joshua Dobbs hit 5-12-75 in his place. Bama did give up their 2nd offensive td in the last 6 games. Bama went 51/2, 66/7, 65/12, and 81/9pl for td’s on their first 4 poss then fumbled at the UT2 on their next. UT was at the Bama24 threatening to make it a 21 pt game when Bama got an 89 IR td with :12 left in the half, a 14 pt swing, 35-0. At the half Bama had a 292-150 yard edge. UT opened the 3Q with a 48/5pl drive for a 37 yard FG. Bama took its 2nd poss 99/9pl for a td but UT went 55/9 incl a 4&3 conversion and the td made it 42-10. Bama went 68/12 and settled for a 20 yard FG to lead 45-10 and brought in backup QB Sims and they punted and ran the clock on the final 2 poss.

LSU came in favored close to 7 td’s vs Furman but the 1H was not good with a couple of key TO’s keeping Furman in the game. Odell Beckham, Jr had 204 rec yards on 6 catches. Furman got a 74 yard IR td to actually take a 7-0 lead. LSU got a 55 yard td run by Hill to tie but Furman went 46/13pl and got a 46 yard FG to lead again, 10-7. LSU went 69/4pl for a td to go up 13-10 (xpng). LSU went 62/5 for a 39 yard td pass to Beckman, 20-10. Furman went 51/13 for a 31 yard FG, 20-13. LSU missed a 31 yard FG with 4:07 left in the half and then Furman fumbled the punt at their own 28. Furman had a 1&gl at the 1 with a chance to tie but settled for a 23 yard FG and only trailed 20-16. At the half LSU had a 279-149 yard edge. There wasn’t any panic in the locker room and LSU just came out and dominated the 2H like you knew they would. They went 84/8pl for a td, were intercepted on their 2nd 3Q poss but then went 90/11, 69/4, and 83/6pl all for td’s, the last a 63 yard td pass with 9:10 left. LSU finished with commanding 672-198 yard and 26-13 FD edges vs a Furman team that came in 3-4 in FCS play.

The situation really favored Idaho in the fact that Mississippi was off their huge upset of LSU in an SEC sandwich playing the lowly Vandals. UI was down to their 3rd string QB Taylor Davis (Chalich and McCain both inj) but Davis did have 4 career starts under his belt and hit 12-30-166. Bo Wallace hit 15-22-186. UI was competitive in the 1H. Miss went 60/4pl for a td and UI was SOD at their own 40 yard line on 4&5. Walton got a 40 yard td run on the next play, 14-0. After 3 punts, Miss went 40/10pl for a 50 yard FG, 17-0. UI put together a 75/9pl drive for a 2 yard td run, 17-7. UI got down to the 8 yard line and had a 1&gl but not only settled for a 27 yard FG, they missed it and that would be a key to them not staying close. Miss took over with 7:37 left in the half, went 80/13pl and got a 1 yard td run to lead 24-7 at the half with a 208-120 yard edge. Each team punted to open the 3Q then Wallace hit a 65 yard td pass, 31-7. UI fumbled and Miss returned it 12 yards for a td, 38-7. UI drove again and got a 62 yard td pass to Epps, 38-14 (5:55 3Q). Mathers broke off a 64 yard td run 3pl later, 45-14 and after UI was SOD on 4&1 at the Ole Miss 25 with 2:05 left in the 3Q, Miss went 75/9 for a td, 52-14. Brunetti led UM 70/7pl for a td with 7:36 left, the td came on a 3&10, 35 yard td pass, 59-14. UM did end the game taking a knee at the UI32 and had 572-253 yard and 28-12 FD edges.

I really liked the pregame speech given by Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday where he talks about football and life being a game of inches and that the inches are everywhere and really make the difference in the game. Missouri is inches away from being a national title contender but due to the lack of a few inches, have fallen all the way down to #10 and are 1 loss away from not appearing in the SEC Title game. South Carolina started Dylan Thompson and while he had decent stats hitting 15-27-222, they trailed 17-0 into the 4Q. Connor Shaw who was banged up, came off the bench and hit 20-29-201 yards guiding scoring drives of 69, 69 and 63 yards to keep alive SC’s chances of getting to that SEC Title game. They suffered a big injury when Mike Davis went down late (status unknown). Maty Mauk who looked so good vs the Florida defense, was a little erratic hitting 10-25-249. SC did not get a FD on their first 2 drives but on their 3rd went 54/11. They converted on 4&3 at the MO27 but would miss a 40 yard FG. MO went 77/9pl and got an 11 yard td run by Murphy, 7-0. SC went 47/7pl but fumbled at the MO31. SC went 71/7 and had a 1&gl at the 2 but fumbled again and that was huge because on 3&8, MO got a 96 yard td pass for basically a 14 pt swing and a 14-0 lead. SC’s next drive ended on an int at the 10 yard line of MO and then they went for it on 4&1 at their own 34 and were SOD. Surprisingly MO was sacked and fired 2 incomplete passes and punted 27 yards to the 9 with :35 left. At the half MO had a 257-212 yard edge and led 14-0. SC went 55/8pl but on 4&6 from the MO33 were SOD. MO went 58/7pl but settled for a 27 yard FG, 17-0. Shaw came into the game and they got 1 FD and punted. MO punted with 1:47 left in the 3Q and Shaw led a 65/13pl drive. They converted on 4&4 at the MO36 and 3&19 down to the 6 and got a td on the next play, 17-7. It wasn’t a good game for MO K Baggett. MO went 37/6pl but he missed a 46 yard FG. That all’d SC to go 69/16pl and get a 29 yard FG instead of having to go for it on 4&2 with 5:03 left. MO punted with 3:08 left and SC went 63/8pl getting a 1 yard td with :42 left to force OT. It still looked good for MO in OT as they got a td in 5pl and SC, after 1 FD faced a 4&gl from the 15 but Shaw hit Ellington with a td to move it to the 2nd OT. Fry got a 40 yard FG then Baggett was an inch away from a made FG but it clanged off the upright and was no good.

Auburn came in #8 in the nation in rushing and despite being in a letdown spot off their big upset of Texas A&M, powered the ball for 422 yards on the ground and surprisingly did not produce a 100 yard rusher. FAU’s 2 QB’s combined to hit 11-26 passing and AU had a 628-247 yard edge. Big plays helped AU get the big lead. AU22 went 78/6pl for an 8 yard td run. FAU fumbled and AU got a 43 yard td run on the next play, 14-0. After a 63 yard PR, AU went 28/4 for a td, 21-0. After a 34 yard punt they went 48/4pl for a td, 28-0. After 3 punts AU took over with 7:42 left 1H and went 54/8pl for a 43 yard FG then got a 1pl, 67 yard td pass with 3:10 left in the half, 38-0. FAU did go 67/3pl getting a 29 yard td run with 2:13 left, 38-7 and AU missed a 40 yard FG on the 1H final play but at the half AU already had 440 yards to just 168 for FAU. FAU went 61/7pl for a 31 yard FG to get back within 28 but AU went 46/6pl after a PF on the KO and got a td, 45-10. AU was intercepted a the FIU2 at the end of a 13 play drive, SOD at the 4 on 4&1 after a 59 yard drive but FAU did not threaten to score.
 
Streakin said:
with you on the Dawgs.

also played MIzzou, but worried how they bouce back.
Click to expand...

UT playing backup QB, not sure that matters, who is more of a read-option type than Worley. Mizzou is pretty stout against the run and UT isn't very good on the road, so as long as Mizzou isn't still hanging their heads, they should coast.
 
gps_3 said:
UT playing backup QB, not sure that matters, who is more of a read-option type than Worley. Mizzou is pretty stout against the run and UT isn't very good on the road, so as long as Mizzou isn't still hanging their heads, they should coast.
Click to expand...

Tennessee will be the toughest team Missouri has faced in the trenches all season. I think the Vols win the game straight up.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Tennessee will be the toughest team Missouri has faced in the trenches all season. I think the Vols win the game straight up.
Click to expand...

I think Mizzou's DL will more than hold their own against UT's OL, but I get your point. I probably won't bet this game. Think it will be relatively low scoring which works to UT's advantage as far as a cover or SU win

Good luck on your plays Jimmy
 
gps_3 said:
I think Mizzou's DL will more than hold their own against UT's OL, but I get your point. I probably won't bet this game. Think it will be relatively low scoring which works to UT's advantage as far as a cover or SU win

Good luck on your plays Jimmy
Click to expand...

I agree the game will be low-scoring, which makes +10 and ML even more attractive IMO.

Like Auburn, Mizzou's defensive line has been one of the keys to their success, so I certainly don't expect them to be overwhelmed in this game. I do think it will be their stiffest test to date however. Mizzou's receivers versus the Vols secondary is a concern, but overall I think this is a very favorable match up for Tennessee.
 
i've been leaning on the under in that game as well.. i'm seeing a 20-27 game. Or should I just tease Tenny and Under?
 
gps_3 said:
I never advocate teasers in college. Too many variables.
Click to expand...

I agree with this. While I think teasers can be a solid strategy in betting the NFL, I don't like it as a betting strategy in college football. The reason is simple. A point has a lot more value in the NFL as opposed to college.
 
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