gps_3 Week 1 SEC and futures

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 0-0-0

Locked In:

Louisville +10'
Arizona -31'
Baylor -34'
Boise -10'
UVA +17
Stanford -12
BYU +6'
OU -31
Georgia Southern +20
Va Tech +11
NCST -25'


Futures:

Conference title:
OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:
tOSU U 11' -120
AU U 8' +130
TCU U 10 +115
UGA O 9 -140
Ole Miss O 8' -120
Oklahoma O 8' -140
UCLA U 9 -125
Wisconsin O 9 -115


Will try to keep up with record better than last year, but have another kid on the way so we'll see how it goes. All bets are one unit unless stated otherwise. Will focus this thread each week on SEC discussion, but certainly other game discussion is welcome. My future plays for conference champs are strictly value plays on teams I think have a legit chance to win the conference, but are not the favorites. I put UGA in there because I definitely expect them to win the East and it would provide a nice hedge opportunity in December. With the win totals, I am fading some teams with a ton of preseason hype (AU, TCU, UCLA - also fade TF QB). I am fine betting against a team to go undefeated, even though Ohio St looks to have as clear a path as any team, but so did FSU preseason last year. Even though they actually did it, they were very fortunate.
 
SEC Schedule week 1 (lines are what is posted by my local):

Thursday 9/3:

South Carolina -3 vs UNC (Charlotte)
Vanderbilt -1 vs WKU (LP Field)

Saturday 9/5:

Florida -36' vs New Mexico St
Auburn -10' vs Louisville (Atlanta)
aTm -3 vs Arizona St (Houston)
Tennessee -21 vs Bowling Green (Nashville)
UGA -35 vs La-Monroe
Kentucky -15' vs UL-L
Arkansas -33 vs UTEP
Alabama -10 vs Wisconsin (Dallas)
Miss St -23' @ Southern Miss
Ole Miss vs Tenn-Martin
Missouri vs SEMO
LSU vs McNeese St
 
Non-SEC games on my radar:

W. Mich +18' vs Mich St
Ok St -23 @ C. Mich
Minnestoa +14 vs TCU

I like using look ahead angle as well as scheduling factors in my capping. So Mich St travelling to a lesser in-state program with huge national game with Oregon on deck has my attention. This is undoubtedly the biggest home game of the season for W. Mich. Not ready to bet it, because I think Mich St is a top 5 team in the country, but will keep an eye on it.
 
twinkie13 said:
Love that Tigah pick:tiphat:
Click to expand...

I knew you would. For full disclosure, it's not my prediction, but it presented the best value for a team I think has a legit chance. If Harris is good, LSU will be in the conversation all season. If he's great, watch out.
 
If LSU stays healthy and Harris is as good as they say........the o-line starters are like 6-5 315lbs avg....like an Arkansas team, but with a loaded backfield and insane talent at WR. The DBs get better too. I think LSU was top 5 in passing defense with virtually ZERO pass rush last year.

I am starting to drink the Kool Aid......BIG time
 
twinkie13 said:
If LSU stays healthy and Harris is as good as they say........the o-line starters are like 6-5 315lbs avg....like an Arkansas team, but with a loaded backfield and insane talent at WR. The DBs get better too. I think LSU was top 5 in passing defense with virtually ZERO pass rush last year.

I am starting to drink the Kool Aid......BIG time
Click to expand...

I think Chavis to Steele is a massive dropoff in coaching. Steele is a great recruiter though, so should have no problem keeping that stable of badass DBs full
 
Curious. How many do you think VT score? or better yet .... what do you make that final score. It seems like one of those games where if you really like VT, the under seems safer than a VT bet. But that is based on my view of the game. Not sure how you view it playing it out.
 
clowncar said:
Curious. How many do you think VT score? or better yet .... what do you make that final score. It seems like one of those games where if you really like VT, the under seems safer than a VT bet. But that is based on my view of the game. Not sure how you view it playing it out.
Click to expand...

More of a tOSU fade than a play on VT. Buckeyes with the suspensions, QB battle, and coming off a title coupled with playing on a Monday night in one of the better HFA in college football against an elite defense with the confidence of knowing they can beat this team is my angle. I agree that the under is likely a safer play, but I don't have totals available to me yet. Will likely look to make a play there too. As for how this plays out, I think VT takes an early lead and keeps it close all game. There is the worry that OSU pulls away late and scores a meaningless (except to bettors) TD late 4th quarter. If this were game 2 or 3 of the season, I'd probably take a shot at the ML, but it being game 1, I don't think tOSU loses, I just think they struggle. I may be wrong, but I think it's very very difficult for a team to win a title and come back the next season and duplicate the intensity and focus needed.
 
gps_3 said:
More of a tOSU fade than a play on VT. Buckeyes with the suspensions, QB battle, and coming off a title coupled with playing on a Monday night in one of the better HFA in college football against an elite defense with the confidence of knowing they can beat this team is my angle. I agree that the under is likely a safer play, but I don't have totals available to me yet. Will likely look to make a play there too. As for how this plays out, I think VT takes an early lead and keeps it close all game. There is the worry that OSU pulls away late and scores a meaningless (except to bettors) TD late 4th quarter. If this were game 2 or 3 of the season, I'd probably take a shot at the ML, but it being game 1, I don't think tOSU loses, I just think they struggle. I may be wrong, but I think it's very very difficult for a team to win a title and come back the next season and duplicate the intensity and focus needed.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the thoughts. Good luck this year ... love this thread year in and year out.
 
gps_3 said:
More of a tOSU fade than a play on VT. Buckeyes with the suspensions, QB battle, and coming off a title coupled with playing on a Monday night in one of the better HFA in college football against an elite defense with the confidence of knowing they can beat this team is my angle. I agree that the under is likely a safer play, but I don't have totals available to me yet. Will likely look to make a play there too. As for how this plays out, I think VT takes an early lead and keeps it close all game. There is the worry that OSU pulls away late and scores a meaningless (except to bettors) TD late 4th quarter. If this were game 2 or 3 of the season, I'd probably take a shot at the ML, but it being game 1, I don't think tOSU loses, I just think they struggle. I may be wrong, but I think it's very very difficult for a team to win a title and come back the next season and duplicate the intensity and focus needed.
Click to expand...


Agree history says it's tough to repeat, but do you see a losable game on that schedule before MSU, which is at the Shoe? VT appears to be their toughest game in the first two months, but Meyer realizes that too. It has to be a historically weak schedule for a preseason #1, one currently ranked team on the whole slate, at home.
 
gps_3 said:
I think Chavis to Steele is a massive dropoff in coaching. Steele is a great recruiter though, so should have no problem keeping that stable of badass DBs full
Click to expand...
could be

I am just thinking Steele and Orgeron......may not need much scheming with those 2 getting the kids
 
tipyerbartender said:
Agree history says it's tough to repeat, but do you see a losable game on that schedule before MSU, which is at the Shoe? VT appears to be their toughest game in the first two months, but Meyer realizes that too. It has to be a historically weak schedule for a preseason #1, one currently ranked team on the whole slate, at home.
Click to expand...

well, ya
 
I mean, they have no games to circle until November, so why not circle this one with the LY revenge angle? Can't decide. Can see them losing the game, can see them winning by 30.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Agree history says it's tough to repeat, but do you see a losable game on that schedule before MSU, which is at the Shoe? VT appears to be their toughest game in the first two months, but Meyer realizes that too. It has to be a historically weak schedule for a preseason #1, one currently ranked team on the whole slate, at home.
Click to expand...

Meyer and the coaches know that. And the players will all say the right thing, doesn't mean they believe it. They have eyes and ears. They've heard everyone crowning them champs already. I could be wrong, and this is the only game I have circled to fade the Buckeyes as of right now, but I'm going to pay to see them continue the great ball they were playing at the end of last year, when they had a chip on their shoulder, out to prove something. Totally different now.
 
Adding:

Tulane +7'
Minnesota +14'
Hawaii +7'
Vanderbilt +115
W. Michigan +18
Texas +10
UT/ND U 50'

Will probably have some 1h and team total bets, but at the beach with somewhat unreliable Internet, so will post as I am able. Good luck to everyone and will try to have some Alabama vs Wisconsin thoughts up shortly
 
Thanks for the kind words fellas. Looking forward to another great, hopefully profitable, season
 
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