Week 1 SEC thoughts (lines might not be current, but were accurate as of a day or two ago):
S. Carolina (-12') vs UNC: SC is my pick to win the East, and I think they are clearly the better team here. However, it's the first game and likely the highest expectation level ever in Columbia, and there is added focus on them due to Clowney. I think SC will win, but I lean to taking the points here. UNC has talent, and SC isn't incredibly strong on defense outside of Clowney. I expect a slow moving game and a comfortable SC victory to the tune of 24-14
Ole Miss (-3') vs Vanderbilt: One of the hardest games to cap. Extremely important game to both teams in terms of the bowl pecking order, as both teams have several likely losses on the schedule. Vandy at home getting points is attractive, as is backing Ole Miss who showed tremendous improvement last year, and brought in a great freshman class. Like the SC game, I expect nerves to play a factor in the first half as both teams struggle to get into a rhythm on offense. Gun to my head, I'm taking the points.
Bama (-18') vs Va Tech: Been discussed a bunch here already, but we know what we're going to get from Alabama. They've shown the last few years that given several weeks to prepare, you have to have your A+ game ready if you want to compete. Much better teams than Va Tech have been blown out in these exact situations. Don't expect it to be close, and really starting to like the over, as Bama likely gets to 38+ points, and Logan Thomas leads a heroic late TD drive against Bama's scout team defense
Mississippi St (+12') vs Okie St: Normally I'd be all over an SEC getting DD's in a non-conference game, but I just don't see how Miss St competes here. Lost to every legit team they played last year, and it's not like they got a talent infusion in the offseason. I believe Mullen will find his seat very warm in the coming months. Meanwhile, Ok St has been very consistent on offense, putting up big numbers year after year. This is simply a game where I don't think MSU can keep up. They'll try to slow it down I'm sure, but Ok St will eventually score, and Miss St isn't equipped to match them score for score. Maybe a close game at the half, but I predict a 2 TD+ win for Okie St
Florida (-23') vs Toledo: UF's offense wasn't very good last year, and Toledo is a legit MAC team. Given that UF has Miami on deck and that they didn't blow out any of their mid-major opponents last year, I expect this one to stay inside the number. Of course, I could see UF forcing some early turnovers and the game gets out of hand quickly, but even that allows for a backdoor cover when the scrubs are in
Auburn (-16) vs Washington St: Hurry-up no huddle vs the Air Raid. I'm not sure what to expect out of Auburn this season because last year's lay down and take it is still so fresh on my mind. I don't think AU has SEC level talent at a number of positions, namely LB, DB, WR, RB, and QB, but they have a decent and experienced OL that coupled with Malzahn's offense can cover up talent deficiencies. The defense will still be awful, so the O will have to score points to win games. I don't know much about Wash St, but the one time I watched them last year, they looked like a high school team. And not a very good one. But, Leach's record at Texas Tech is impressive, and it should be only a matter of time before they are at least competitive. As for this game, I can see AU getting out ahead and early, and then Wazzu getting back into it. 16 is too many points to lay, especially with a team that can't defend, so I lean Was St here. The over is also worth a look.
LSU (-4') vs TCU: Similar to Alabama, LSU tends to do very well in these games. Although LSU lost a ton of talent, they replace it with talent, just some inexperience. LSU has a million RBs, and aren't afraid to hit anyone (that's for you Twinkie). TCU is a fine team and will be in the thick of the Big12 race, but I like LSU here to win by 7-13 points
Georgia (-1') vs Clemson: UGA lost more than LSU on defense this offseason, and Clemson is the wrong team to break in the new guys against. UGA will certainly put up some points, but I don't see them slowing down Boyd. Murray has a poor record against ranked teams (4-9), and Richt likes to choke when he has high expectations. The more I think about it, the more I like Clemson in this game. Beating LSU last year was the best thing that could have happened to them confidence-wise, and I believe it will show up in front of what I can only assume will an out of control atmosphere. I'll call for Clemson to win something like 41-35
Not much to say about the other games. I keep hearing from a lot of people that UL-L is a great bet against Arkansas, but I'll have to look into that one a bit more before I offer an opinion. I wouldn't be surprised to see UK get beat by WKU as Petrino starts his one year audition to get back to coaching at a BCS school. UT and Mizzou should coast, no interest in betting the games though.
Thoughts and comments welcome. Good luck to all who bet
