gps_3 Bowl Season

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2013: 129-119 +16.5 units


Will most likely have a bet on every bowl game, will add thoughts when I can. All plays will be posted in this post as I add them. Good luck everyone and happy holidays!

Bowl Games (locked in):

Colorado St +5' (1)
Col St/WSU O 66 (1)
Col St TT O 30 (1)
USC/FSU O 63 (2)
USC TT O 34' (2)
Buffalo +2' (2)
Tulane -2' (1)
ECU -14 (1)
ECU TT O 38' (1)
Ore St -3' (1)
Ore St TT O 34' (1)
Pitt +6' (1)
Utah St pk (1)
Marshall/Maryland U 65 (1)
Minnesota -3' (1)
Wash -4' (1)
Rutgers +14' (1)
UNC -2' (1)
louisville -5 (1)
Kansas St -6 (1)
Navy -6' (1)
Ole Miss/GT O 56 (1)
Texas/Oregon O 67' (1)
Arizona St -14 (1)
Zona/BC U 56' (1)
Arizona 2H -4 (1)
UCLA -7' (1)
UCLA/VT O 47' (2)
Miss St -7 (1)
aTm -12' (2)
Duke score 1st +175 (1)
aTm TT O 44' (1)
aTm/Duke 1H O 38 (2)
aTm -10' 2H (2)
Nebraska +9 (2)
LSU -7 (1)
Mich St +6 (2)
UCF/Baylor O 68' (2)
Baylor TT O 44' (1)
UCF TT O 27' (1)
S. Carolina +2 (1)
UNLV +6' (1)
​Alabama TT O 34' (2)
Alabama -9' 1H (1)
OU TT U 17' (1)
Mizzou/OKST O 60' (1)
OK ST -1' (1)
Clemson/tOSU O 69' (1)
Clemson +3 (1)
Clemson TT O 34' (1)
Vanderbilt -1' (2)
Ark St/Ball St O 64' (1)
FSU/AU 1Q U 14' (3)
FSU/AU 1H U 34 (1)
Marshall U 12' comp (1)
Marshall U 162' pass yds (1.5)
S. Coates U 3' Receptions (1.5)
R. Greene O 5' Rec (1)
R. Greene O 72' Rec Yds (2)
 
Last edited:
Didn't realize the game started at 1 today, barely got it in. Added ECU minus the points and team over.

Was on the winning side of that debacle in the New Mexico bowl. Hope it's a sign of things to come. Good luck everyone!
 
Back at work after a week off, and it sucks. Been running hot to start the bowls, hope to continue it for the next week. Been a little fortunate, so maybe a correction coming. Anyway, added plays for today up top. Will try to give some SEC thoughts over the next few days.

On Ole Miss/GT: Took the over as neither team is particularly good at defending what the other team does well. As far as a side, I lean Georgia Tech. I don't see Ole Miss being particularly excited to be at this game, since they were expecting to compete for the west title. Even with the added time to prepare for the triple option, Ole Miss is about as undisciplined as it gets, so I see GT begin able to break some big runs. Ole Miss is pretty athletic at WR and they love to chuck it around, so I'm seeing a 34-30 type game. Weather doesn't appear to be a factor, though it sucks to be in the stands when the wind starts coming off the river.
 
Part of accurately capping bowl games is being able to identify intangibles that can affect a team (coaching changes, motivation, etc). It's hard for me to say that a team isn't motivated for a bowl, except in some cases (Pitt playing in Birmingham for the third time in a row last year comes to mind), but I think you can identify teams that have questionable motivation. For the SEC, I think it goes as follows:

Ole Miss - questionable motivation. Were likely looking for a better bowl at the beginning of the season. Lost rivalry game in heart breaking fashion last time out. Ole Miss isn't a team that traditionally plays with a lot of pride, maybe Freeze gets them up

Miss St - motivated. Chance for Prescott to build more momentum after come from behind win over Ole Miss last time out. Prescott should be completely healthy

Texas A&M - questionable motivation. Back in September, I'm sure Manziel and co weren't dreaming of a bowl matchup with Duke. Even though the CFA bowl is a great bowl, not sure Aggies get up for a no-name opponent. However, last game for Manziel, Matthews, and Evans in front of a bunch of NFL scouts can certainly be a motivator.

UGA - questionable motivation. Can't see them excited about a rematch from last year's bowl game. Is a great opportunity Mason to lock down next year's starting QB spot, if he hasn't already.

South Carolina - struggled with this one, but I'll say motivated. I can see Clowney not going 100%, but I like the makeup of the rest of the team.

LSU - questionable motivation. Freshman QB looking to lock down starting spot for 2014 helps. LSU has laid some eggs in bowl games that don't have their full attention

Alabama - questionable motivation. Not much needs to be said here. Lot of entitled turds on the roster, ability of senior leadership to get younger guys to focus is question here

Missouri - motivated. Yes they were one game from playing in a BCS bowl, maybe even national championship, but they have to be motivated playing in the Cotton Bowl a year after missing bowl season. Throw in a former conference rival, and I think this game has their full attention

Vandy - motivated. Success is still new enough to this team and program that bowl invites aren't taken for granted

AU - motivated. no explanation needed
 
Elbutre88 said:
damn good start, gps.
Click to expand...

Thanks ElButre. Pretty much the exact opposite of last year. Dangerous time as a sports bettor with the bowls, NCAABB, NBA and NFL playoffs all in full gear. Good luck to you and the Longhorns tonight.
 
Regression to the mean last night. Didn't watch any of the games really, so I don't know how bad my bets were. I did hear on the radio that Ole Miss had some kicking issues, but not sure they were enough to cost me the over.

Like Miss St to cover this afternoon. Really think Prescott is the real deal, and motivation won't be an issue here. As far as aTm, it's probably one of the squarest bets on the board, but I don't think Duke is much if any better than Vanderbilt or Miss St. Lot of scouts at the game, think Manziel and Evans try to put on a show. Duke will likely get theirs too, so thinking of an over bet, or maybe some TT when they are made available to me. Got 1 more patient to see and then I'm off to watch football and drink so I can be home before the amateurs make it out
 
I don't feel that bad about missing the under in that UA/BC game, as a Rudy type RB ran hard and scored under a minute to lose by 5 TDs instead of 4. Good for him. Anyway, added some plays for tonight. Good luck and Happy New Years to everyone. I'll be at home waiting on my pregnant wife.
 
gps_3 said:
I don't feel that bad about missing the under in that UA/BC game, as a Rudy type RB ran hard and scored under a minute to lose by 5 TDs instead of 4. Good for him. Anyway, added some plays for tonight. Good luck and Happy New Years to everyone. I'll be at home waiting on my pregnant wife.
Click to expand...
The best to you both....get a healthy new year baby
 
Thank you mr bones. It's our 1st, so still trying to figure it out
 
For tonight's game, 17 points is too many, but I don't exactly trust Oklahoma here. This is as healthy as Alabama has been all year, and that's big for AJ as he's had an issue in his throwing shoulder for most of the season. I think Alabama will come out motivated and with a chip on their shoulder after spending the last 5 weeks watching the FG return on ESPN. I expect them to come out aggressively, and to take an early lead. Final score 38-17.

Bets: Alabama -9' 1H, TT O 34'

Good luck on your bets
 
Added sides to my over bets for tonight.

Last night was an abortion by the whole team. Probably needed for the players, coaches and fans. We knew all year that the sense of entitlement and faux accomplishment was high on this team, but the fan in me assumed Saban and guys like AJ and Mosely could overcome it. I was wrong, and we got outcoached, outhustled, and flat outplayed last night. Hopefully I'll start hearing about Saban and Kirby addressing how they defend hurry up offenses, because the defense has failed in key moments the last two games. Also hope to hear about some players finding their way onto other colleges or quitting football. Too many guys on the team that were born on third base and think they hit a triple. An Auburn win on Monday will be a fitting end to this season.

Good luck guys, only 5 games left.
 
gps_3 said:
Added sides to my over bets for tonight.

Last night was an abortion by the whole team. Probably needed for the players, coaches and fans. We knew all year that the sense of entitlement and faux accomplishment was high on this team, but the fan in me assumed Saban and guys like AJ and Mosely could overcome it. I was wrong, and we got outcoached, outhustled, and flat outplayed last night. Hopefully I'll start hearing about Saban and Kirby addressing how they defend hurry up offenses, because the defense has failed in key moments the last two games. Also hope to hear about some players finding their way onto other colleges or quitting football. Too many guys on the team that were born on third base and think they hit a triple. An Auburn win on Monday will be a fitting end to this season.

Good luck guys, only 5 games left.
Click to expand...

Well said

WarEagle
 
Can't believe the season is basically over. I don't post any except for NCAAF, except for some in-games here and there, so this is essentially the end of the road for me on CTG until next year. Always enjoy the back and forth here and the excellent cappers that post here. Glad I found my way over here after reading c*****.com for so long. I also have baby #1 on the way this summer, so not sure what kind of funds I will have to wager next season. I hear diapers are expensive.

I am a little gunshy on tonight's game. Living in Alabama, and being a die-hard Bammer, I see Auburn play most every week. This year, I watch them play and they look like they may be a top 15 team. Certainly not a top 2 team. But they keep winning. FSU looks like the best team this season, by quite a lot. I feel like they will win, and pretty easily, but AU has something this season, kind of like they did with Cam, though they don't have anyone in the same stratosphere of Cam's talent anywhere on the roster. FSU's offense will put up big yards, because every offense puts up big yards against AU. Their back 7 is horrendous. Where they get you is on obvious passing downs with two above average, possibly really good, ends in Lawson and Ford. AU has also been great at red zone defense somehow. Probably because the secondary doesn't have to cover as much ground. Can FSU convert in the RZ? Statistically, they are best in the country at doing so, so I would bet they have more success than most.

Where the rubber meets the road is AU's run offense vs FSU run defense. I see no reason to fear Marshall as a thrower, unless they are able to get that ground game moving and catch FSU keeping their eyes in the backfield. Also look out for the controversial OL blocking downfield on pass plays. It's not a penalty unless it gets called, and AU hasn't been called all year that I've seen. The most important factor in stopping AU's run attack is interior DL. It was where Alabama failed and they lost because of it. FSU's DTs are much better than anything Alabama put out there against AU, and I feel that FSU will be able to slow down the AU run as well as anyone has done this season.

Like many of you on here, I expect this game to start slow as each team kind of feels each other, as well as themselves, out. This isn't like last year where one team had all the big game experience and was more comfortable. I feel the lay-off hurts AU much more than FSU, as AU has more of a timing based offense, and they were running it near perfectly at the end of the season. Once both teams have a few series under their belt, I expect the offenses to start humming along. At the end of the day, I trust FSU's defense to make more stops than AU's defense. I wouldn't put anything AU, especially if it's close, but FSU has significantly more talent on both sides of the ball.

I'm predicting FSU to win 41-24. Not sure I'll bet full game, but I'll have several wagers on the game. For now, I have two:

1Q U 14' (3 units)
1H U 34 (1 unit)

Best of luck to everyone. Hope to add more and be around for the in-game
 
go get 'em GPS, hope to read your stuff more next year as I was pretty inactive on NCAAF in '13
 
Congrats, Papa!

Gutsy going under, IMO, I think we see lotsa points but hope you win. Roll Tide bro, until next time..
 
Added some props. Basically going under the assumption that FSU will pass a lot, and AU will not

Good luck guys
 
Great bowl season guys. Finished the bowls 39-19 for +28.5 units, probably the best bowl season I've had. Thanks for all the help. Looking forward to the playoffs next season. Don't think Alabama is going anywhere....
 
gps_3 said:
Great bowl season guys. Finished the bowls 39-19 for +28.5 units, probably the best bowl season I've had. Thanks for all the help. Looking forward to the playoffs next season. Don't think Alabama is going anywhere....
Click to expand...

Outstanding job gps!!!

With Alabama, LSU & TAMU all losing their starting QBs, you have to make Auburn the favorite to repeat in the SEC West at this point. The West will again be the stronger division, so whoever wins the West will likely be in the playoff. Alabama will certainly be a factor. They're too talented not to be. It'll be interesting to see if Saban can plug the leaks, and who will under center.
 
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