Goodyear 400 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Goodyear 400 Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Goodyear 400
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina

Chase Elliott

Elliott earned his first win of a season that, per the standings, is still being led by Chastain and Byron.

Elliott now sits in third-place in points most directly ahead of Kyle Busch.

The fact that Elliott won last week makes him tougher to rely on this week to win the race.

We may still consider him in matchup betting opportunities, but it is rare to win back-to-back races in the NASCAR Cup Series.

The fact of this rarity should cause us to exclude him from our candidates to bet on to win the race.

Race Info

For this Sunday's race at Darlington Raceway, drivers must complete a total of 293 laps.

As has always been the case, an entry list has been published for this race.

36 teams/drivers are posted on the entry list. All of the usual suspects are there.

So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will compete in this race.

As for the starting lineup, that gets determined via qualifying.

Qualifying for Sunday's race will take place on Saturday morning at 11:05 a.m.

Directly before qualifying, there will be a practice session from 10:30 a.m. to 11:05.

Track Info

Darlington Raceway's nicknames suggest -- and rightly so -- that it is a relatively difficult track for drivers to navigate.

This raceway gets called the "Track Too Tough to Tame."

It is a "tough" track because of how narrow it is as an egg-shaped track.

This track was initially conceived as an oval, but it had to be constructed around a pond that its owner refused to cede control over.

The result is a raceway where passing is so difficult that drivers commonly rub the walls with their cars, thus earning their "Darlington stripes."

Given the fact of the track's narrowness, starting position is relatively important here.

Drivers we like or dislike should be invested in or against more or less strongly depending on their qualifying results.

At this track, each lap is 1.366 miles.

In completing 293 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400 miles.

Drivers I Dislike

I want to say that I dislike Kyle Larson only in the sense that he is favored to win at this race even though he has never won here.

A string of three consecutive second-place finishes offers assurance that he will be competitive here.

But, given his price, I find it a bit absurd to invest in him to win.

Long Shot

Because sportsbooks offer so many choices for a winner at amazing odds, it's worth placing multiple bets.

If you want to invest in a long shot, Erik Jones is your guy.

Before suffering engine problems in his last race at Darlington and before finishing poorly in the Darlington race directly preceding the one in which he suffered engine problems, he earned two straight top-five finishes, six straight top-eight finishes, and one win,

He is posted at +3500 to win.

My Favorite Guy

I like Kyle Busch for this race.

Kyle Busch is boasting strong racing form in general right now as he's finished first, third, and seventh in his last three overall races.

At Darlington, Kyle Busch suffered an accident in his last race. However, before the accident, he finished third, then seventh, then second.

He is a consistent threat overall and here who, unlike Larson, has proven that he can win at Darlington.

For the above reasons, I recommend betting on Kyle Busch to win.

Best Bet: Kyle Busch to Win at +1000 with Bovada
 
Kinda hard to find anything to bet on this week. The drivers that were good last week should have a good race again this week.

So far I have bet small amounts on these:

0.5 unit:
Suarez -125 over Cindric (BAS)
Erik Jones Top 10 +150 (Bovada)
 
I split a 0.5 unit bet on:

Xfinity:
Gragson to win +400 (BAS)
Gragson Top 3 +110 (Bovada)
 
Last edited:
Pretty eventful Cup practice and qualifying.

Chase Elliott crashed in practice and did not qualify so he will go to the back of the field and loses pit selection.

Kevin Harvick crashed in practice and did not qualify so he will go to the back of the field and loses pit selection. I would usually be on Harvick at Darlington, but unless the matchup odds are plus money I doubt I will bet him. He is a steady racer so it will take him a while to move forward. Also, last week he would gain a few spots on the track under green flags but would lose them back in the pits. On tracks that hard to pass this is a big deal. Having a bad pit selection will only makes this worse.

Something happened to Denny Hamlin's car at the end of his qualifying lap. He mentioned something about the front wheel and the engine. It looks like he will start at the back also. He still qualified at 22 so I would think they will be overcautious and repair anything that may need repairing and go to the back.

Byron brushed the wall in his last qualifying lap and may have some damage that needs to be repaired and would have to go to the rear, but it did not look bad.

Keselowski spun out in practice but did not hit anything. He qualified 23rd and is a fade.

Beuscher did not show the speed he had last week and qualified 18th. This does not bode well for Keselowski either.

Suarez qualified 20th but was 8th in practice. During qualifying, he had to let out of the gas and in the in-car camera, you could see him punch at the stirring wheel after he crossed the finish line as he knew he could have had a better lap. I am not worried about him and his qualifying position could present a betting opportunity for him. He still qualified one spot behind Cindric who I have already made a small bet on Suarez over Cindric.

Cars that usually do not qualify that well and when they do they tend to perform better on race day. I will be looking to bet on these guys:

Reddick qualified 10th and was 3rd in 10 lap average in practice
Eric Jones qualified 11th - I already have a small bet on him to finish in the Top 10 and will add if the odds stay the same.
Almirola 12th
Austin Dillon qualified 14th and was 11th in 10 lap average in practice
 
My book left the matchups during qualifying so I bet:

Larson -150 over Chase
Truex -110 over Chase

Tried for Busch over Elliott but they pulled them while I was trying to bet it.
 
My book left the matchups during qualifying so I bet:

Larson -150 over Chase
Truex -110 over Chase

Tried for Busch over Elliott but they pulled them while I was trying to bet it.
Yeah, I logged onto BAS toward the end of qualifying and the matchups were being pulled down one by one when I logged on. A minute or 2 too late.

Those two bets against Chase will probably be a lot higher if they even put them back up. In an interview yesterday Chase was asked about his reasons for wanting to run the Xfinity race today and he said he wanted to because he has not been good at Darlington recently. Qualifying was rained out for the Xfinity race so now he will not race it. I was considering betting against him after I heard that interview and before his wreck today, but now I doubt it will be possible.
 
Yeah, I logged onto BAS toward the end of qualifying and the matchups were being pulled down one by one when I logged on. A minute or 2 too late.

Those two bets against Chase will probably be a lot higher if they even put them back up. In an interview yesterday Chase was asked about his reasons for wanting to run the Xfinity race today and he said he wanted to because he has not been good at Darlington recently. Qualifying was rained out for the Xfinity race so now he will not race it. I was considering betting against him after I heard that interview and before his wreck today, but now I doubt it will be possible.

I'm sure I'll still end up losing these anyway. Lol. But straight up I'd take Larson and Truex over Chase at Darlington. I may have a slight edge now. But it doesn't mean much.
 
Pretty eventful Cup practice and qualifying.

Chase Elliott crashed in practice and did not qualify so he will go to the back of the field and loses pit selection.

Kevin Harvick crashed in practice and did not qualify so he will go to the back of the field and loses pit selection. I would usually be on Harvick at Darlington, but unless the matchup odds are plus money I doubt I will bet him. He is a steady racer so it will take him a while to move forward. Also, last week he would gain a few spots on the track under green flags but would lose them back in the pits. On tracks that hard to pass this is a big deal. Having a bad pit selection will only makes this worse.

Something happened to Denny Hamlin's car at the end of his qualifying lap. He mentioned something about the front wheel and the engine. It looks like he will start at the back also. He still qualified at 22 so I would think they will be overcautious and repair anything that may need repairing and go to the back.

Byron brushed the wall in his last qualifying lap and may have some damage that needs to be repaired and would have to go to the rear, but it did not look bad.

Keselowski spun out in practice but did not hit anything. He qualified 23rd and is a fade.

Beuscher did not show the speed he had last week and qualified 18th. This does not bode well for Keselowski either.

Suarez qualified 20th but was 8th in practice. During qualifying, he had to let out of the gas and in the in-car camera, you could see him punch at the stirring wheel after he crossed the finish line as he knew he could have had a better lap. I am not worried about him and his qualifying position could present a betting opportunity for him. He still qualified one spot behind Cindric who I have already made a small bet on Suarez over Cindric.

Cars that usually do not qualify that well and when they do they tend to perform better on race day. I will be looking to bet on these guys:

Reddick qualified 10th and was 3rd in 10 lap average in practice
Eric Jones qualified 11th - I already have a small bet on him to finish in the Top 10 and will add if the odds stay the same.
Almirola 12th
Austin Dillon qualified 14th and was 11th in 10 lap average in practice
Byron is good to go and will not need to go to the rear.

 
I added these for the Xfinity race. Gonna fade Allmendinger, which may not work out. This is not a great track for him:

1 unit:
JHN -120 over Allmendinger (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Brandon Jones +110 over Allmendinger (BAS)
Hemric +130 over Allmendinger (BAS)
Reddick -115 over Allmendinger (BAS)
 
I added these for the Xfinity race. Gonna fade Allmendinger, which may not work out. This is not a great track for him:

1 unit:
JHN -120 over Allmendinger (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Brandon Jones +110 over Allmendinger (BAS)
Hemric +130 over Allmendinger (BAS)
Reddick -115 over Allmendinger (BAS)
I did not net anything on the Gragson to win and Top 3 bet.

+0.475 units on the others
 
Of course I said JRM would win. I had Berry and you had Noah. And the other JRM wins. (I don't count Mayer lol)
I think Mayer will be worth betting the second half of the season. I think he ran a limited schedule last year, so most of these tracks are still new to him.
 
I don't like the matchups as much this week.

So far I have:

1 unit:
Truex -105 over Kyle Busch (BAS)
Reddick over Blaney -105 (Bovada)
Reddick over Bowman -115 (Bovada)
Austin Dillon over Cindric -125 (BAS)
Suarez over Cindric -125 (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Austin Dillon Top 10 +150 (Bovada)
Erik Jones Top 10 +150 (Bovada)
 
I don't like the matchups as much this week.

So far I have:

1 unit:
Truex -105 over Kyle Busch (BAS)
Reddick over Blaney -105 (Bovada)
Reddick over Bowman -115 (Bovada)
Austin Dillon over Cindric -125 (BAS)
Suarez over Cindric -125 (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Austin Dillon Top 10 +150 (Bovada)
Erik Jones Top 10 +150 (Bovada)
Reddick might be a good play today. Looked good yesterday until some late misfortune ended that.
 
I added:

2 units:
Kurt Busch -120 over Cindric (Bovada)

1 unit:
Kurt Busch -105 over Bell (BAS)
Reddick - 125 over Bell (BAS)
 
I do not know what is going on but this moved a lot on BM so I added:
Maybe some are playing the narrative of mothers day and Kyle Busch's today.

1 unit:
Truex +137 over Kyle Busch
 
Also, maybe some are looking at the top lap time in practice. In practice, Truex was practicing running/drafting with another car for some reason and did not try to lay down a good lap until qualifying.
 
Competition caution at lap 30, helps those coming from the back of the field like Harvick, Elliott, and Hamlin.
 
I have:

2 units:
Kurt Busch -120 over Cindric (Bovada)
Truex -105 & +137 over Kyle Busch (BAS &BM)

1 unit:
Reddick over Blaney -105 (Bovada)
Reddick over Bowman -115 (Bovada)
Reddick over Logano +120 (BM)
Reddick - 125 over Bell (BAS)
Kurt Busch -105 over Bell (BAS)
Austin Dillon over Cindric -125 (BAS)
Suarez over Cindric -125 (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Austin Dillon Top 10 +150 (Bovada)
Erik Jones Top 10 +150 (Bovada)

I need a good race from Reddick and Kurt Busch and a not so good race from Cindric and Bell
 
I have:

2 units:
Kurt Busch -120 over Cindric (Bovada)
Truex -105 & +137 over Kyle Busch (BAS &BM)

1 unit:
Reddick over Blaney -105 (Bovada)
Reddick over Bowman -115 (Bovada)
Reddick over Logano +120 (BM)
Reddick - 125 over Bell (BAS)
Kurt Busch -105 over Bell (BAS)
Austin Dillon over Cindric -125 (BAS)
Suarez over Cindric -125 (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Austin Dillon Top 10 +150 (Bovada)
Erik Jones Top 10 +150 (Bovada)

I need a good race from Reddick and Kurt Busch and a not so good race from Cindric and Bell
+3.22 units today and +3.70 for the weekend

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +4.87 units
Cup +47.29 units
Both +52.16 units
 
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