Today's Plays Include a ( +257) NBA Playoffs Parlay
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at FedExForum in Memphis
Betting Approach
Golden State eked out a one-point victory in Game 1, failing to cover the 2.5-point spread but nevertheless securing a 1-0 lead in the series.
Whether that 117-116 result was repeatable or whether we should expect something substantially different tonight is the question.
By looking at what each team could have done differently in Game 1, it will be possible to determine what is most realistic to expect in tonight's game.
What Memphis Could Have Done Differently
It is trivially true that, theoretically, the Grizzlies could have done things differently in order to win.
Xavier Tillman, as evident in his +/- rating, was absolutely awful in Game 1. If he had played less, then Memphis could have won straight-up.
Dillon Brooks was inefficient, yet shot a lot of baskets. If he had attempted fewer shots, then Memphis may have won.
Likewise, Memphis needed to have Jaren Jackson Jr., De'Anthony Melton, and Brandon Clarke play more minutes.
What's Realistic: Tillman
I don't think it's realistic to expect Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins to play his best guys the most amount of minutes.
In these playoffs, Jenkins' best lineups per net rating have played so few minutes compared to other rotations.
This fact shows that Jenkins is not good at allotting minutes.
More specifically, I don't think that he can simply do away with Tillman because Steven Adams remains out due to health and safety protocols.
Adams was productive against Golden State during the regular season, so he would be a great option for this series.
While Tillman was great against a more perimeter-oriented center in Karl-Anthony Towns in the opening series, the Warriors are built differently at the center position, making Tillman not be an effective option.
So Tillman will be out there tonight and he will continue to hurt the Grizzlies.
Dillon Brooks
Brooks repeatedly has wildly inefficient performances on the offensive end.
Jenkins, though, continues to trust him by letting him take a proportionately high rate of shots.
After he shot 3-for-18 in Game 5, for example, he attempted 19 shots in the following game.
He is, characteristically, known for his on-ball defense, for stopping the other team's top perimeter player.
But his self-confidence on offense clearly exists in inverse proportion with his reliability as a scorer.
So, expect plenty of bricks from Brooks tonight.
Other Guys
His repeated foul trouble aside, Jackson Jr., had an incredible performance that is so far from ordinary for him. He averaged almost 22 fewer points in the series against Minnesota.
Melton, too, had been utterly unreliable in the playoffs.
So, the Grizzlies will likely need other guys to step up rather than rely on freak individual performances.
Clarke only helps so much as a scorer, but Desmond Bane was not the same guy he was during the series against Minnesota.
Bane is dealing with a back issue, but Golden State is also able to scheme for him more effectively.
The Warriors do not give him chances to the extent that Minnesota did with its double teams.
In addition to refusing to double as much, the Warriors feature a switch-heavy scheme that helps take away the sort of open looks that propelled Bane's offensive euphoria in the series against Minnesota.
All things considered, Memphis overachieved on offense in Game 1. I come to this conclusion largely in view of Jackson Jr.'s unlikely explosion and because of the things that Golden State can do to limit usual threats like Bane.
Statistically, Jenkins is objectively wrong to say that Memphis lost because it missed open shots. The Grizzlies did not underachieve shooting-wise, not any more than the Warriors did.
What Golden State Could Have Done Differently
Draymond Green could have avoided being ejected.
The perennial All-Defensive Team selection only got to play 17 minutes.
An off night from Klay Thompson hurt Golden State's scoring output.
While Steph Curry and Jordan Poole may have overachieved slightly, Andrew Wiggins finished well below his average three-point percentage, though his tenacity on the glass contributed to Golden State's offensive efforts in untold ways.
Parlay Verdict
Golden State has the more consistent offensive threats in Thompson, Wiggins, Curry, and Poole.
Whereas Memphis covered the spread due to a freak effort from Jaren Jackson Jr., it's not realistic to expect random Grizzly players due to score 30+ points in Game 2.
Scoring will be harder with Draymond Green on the court presumably able to avoid getting ejected yet again. To be specific, he is limited as a scorer for his team and he limits the opposing team's scoring in elite fashion.
With stronger defense from the Warriors and less offense from the Grizzlies, we get a lower-scoring game where the Warriors triumph by a stronger margin.
Best Bet: Parlay Warriors -1.5 at -110 & Under 227.5 at -115 at +257 odds with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at FedExForum in Memphis
Betting Approach
Golden State eked out a one-point victory in Game 1, failing to cover the 2.5-point spread but nevertheless securing a 1-0 lead in the series.
Whether that 117-116 result was repeatable or whether we should expect something substantially different tonight is the question.
By looking at what each team could have done differently in Game 1, it will be possible to determine what is most realistic to expect in tonight's game.
What Memphis Could Have Done Differently
It is trivially true that, theoretically, the Grizzlies could have done things differently in order to win.
Xavier Tillman, as evident in his +/- rating, was absolutely awful in Game 1. If he had played less, then Memphis could have won straight-up.
Dillon Brooks was inefficient, yet shot a lot of baskets. If he had attempted fewer shots, then Memphis may have won.
Likewise, Memphis needed to have Jaren Jackson Jr., De'Anthony Melton, and Brandon Clarke play more minutes.
What's Realistic: Tillman
I don't think it's realistic to expect Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins to play his best guys the most amount of minutes.
In these playoffs, Jenkins' best lineups per net rating have played so few minutes compared to other rotations.
This fact shows that Jenkins is not good at allotting minutes.
More specifically, I don't think that he can simply do away with Tillman because Steven Adams remains out due to health and safety protocols.
Adams was productive against Golden State during the regular season, so he would be a great option for this series.
While Tillman was great against a more perimeter-oriented center in Karl-Anthony Towns in the opening series, the Warriors are built differently at the center position, making Tillman not be an effective option.
So Tillman will be out there tonight and he will continue to hurt the Grizzlies.
Dillon Brooks
Brooks repeatedly has wildly inefficient performances on the offensive end.
Jenkins, though, continues to trust him by letting him take a proportionately high rate of shots.
After he shot 3-for-18 in Game 5, for example, he attempted 19 shots in the following game.
He is, characteristically, known for his on-ball defense, for stopping the other team's top perimeter player.
But his self-confidence on offense clearly exists in inverse proportion with his reliability as a scorer.
So, expect plenty of bricks from Brooks tonight.
Other Guys
His repeated foul trouble aside, Jackson Jr., had an incredible performance that is so far from ordinary for him. He averaged almost 22 fewer points in the series against Minnesota.
Melton, too, had been utterly unreliable in the playoffs.
So, the Grizzlies will likely need other guys to step up rather than rely on freak individual performances.
Clarke only helps so much as a scorer, but Desmond Bane was not the same guy he was during the series against Minnesota.
Bane is dealing with a back issue, but Golden State is also able to scheme for him more effectively.
The Warriors do not give him chances to the extent that Minnesota did with its double teams.
In addition to refusing to double as much, the Warriors feature a switch-heavy scheme that helps take away the sort of open looks that propelled Bane's offensive euphoria in the series against Minnesota.
All things considered, Memphis overachieved on offense in Game 1. I come to this conclusion largely in view of Jackson Jr.'s unlikely explosion and because of the things that Golden State can do to limit usual threats like Bane.
Statistically, Jenkins is objectively wrong to say that Memphis lost because it missed open shots. The Grizzlies did not underachieve shooting-wise, not any more than the Warriors did.
What Golden State Could Have Done Differently
Draymond Green could have avoided being ejected.
The perennial All-Defensive Team selection only got to play 17 minutes.
An off night from Klay Thompson hurt Golden State's scoring output.
While Steph Curry and Jordan Poole may have overachieved slightly, Andrew Wiggins finished well below his average three-point percentage, though his tenacity on the glass contributed to Golden State's offensive efforts in untold ways.
Parlay Verdict
Golden State has the more consistent offensive threats in Thompson, Wiggins, Curry, and Poole.
Whereas Memphis covered the spread due to a freak effort from Jaren Jackson Jr., it's not realistic to expect random Grizzly players due to score 30+ points in Game 2.
Scoring will be harder with Draymond Green on the court presumably able to avoid getting ejected yet again. To be specific, he is limited as a scorer for his team and he limits the opposing team's scoring in elite fashion.
With stronger defense from the Warriors and less offense from the Grizzlies, we get a lower-scoring game where the Warriors triumph by a stronger margin.
Best Bet: Parlay Warriors -1.5 at -110 & Under 227.5 at -115 at +257 odds with BetOnline
