Today's Odds Include a (+258) NBA Playoffs Parlay
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, May 28, 2022 at 10 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas
Why is Golden State Up 3-0?
The Warriors have dominated this series, winning Game 1 by 25 and Games 2 and 3 by nine.
They withstood Dallas' spectacular shooting in Game 2 and they remained unphased by a 40-point Luka Doncic effort in Game 3.
Dallas has given them their best basketball. The Mavs are arguably at their best when they're making threes, when Doncic is in his best form, and defense is also a strength of the team.
Golden State has withstood exhibitions of the Mavericks' best basketball.
Still, to say that the Mavericks have played their best would probably be condescending to a team that handled Utah before upending the defending Western Conference champs.
But the reason why Dallas hasn't played its best -- more precisely, Dallas hasn't played its best basketball for long enough periods to justify the claim that it has played its best basketball -- generates a bleak outlook for tonight's game.
I don't like the Mavericks tonight because they seem tired.
After all, they did have to play six games against Utah before playing seven against the Suns.
Plus, they don't have a lot of reliable players to occupy the court.
Roster Limitations
One reason why nothing will change in Game 4 is that Dallas' roster is limited.
The Mavericks cannot go out and make the changes to their roster that they need to make and that they will surely try to make during the offseason.
They are favored tonight despite helplessly having a deficient roster.
Relying on Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock for 40+ minutes does not exactly seem ideal.
But what other options do they have?
In Game 3, Maxi Kleber played 25 minutes and Spencer Dinwiddie played 32 minutes.
These are typical backups who are being asked to contribute serious amounts of minutes.
Trying to play Davis Bertans, who is averaging 2.7 points this series, and Frank Ntilikina, who remains scoreless this series, does not provide a solution because both players are embarrassed when they're on the court.
Compare this with Golden State. Outside of its star players, the Warriors ask Jordan Poole to contribute a lot of minutes.
Poole famously stepped up in Curry's absence during the regular season, evolving into a serious scoring threat, into someone who can always shoot a lot of threes but also be productive at all three levels.
Then, there's Andrew Wiggins, a former top pick who is likewise efficient from deep but also efficient inside the arc, and he's averaging 20.7 points in this series.
Star players aside, the Mavericks don't have nearly the same level of support from other players.
What Other Roster Limitations Exist?
The Warriors do also rely on some lesser-talented guys to give a lot of minutes.
Center is a well-known weak spot for them. Kevon Looney has never made an All-Star Game and he probably never will.
However, Looney enjoys the perfect matchup in this series because he faces a Maverick team that itself lacks a quality center and that seriously lacks rim protection.
Is Steph Curry Just A Shooter?
Not just Looney is scoring inside -- he's averaging 13.3 points per game -- but even Steph Curry is thriving at the basket.
In this series, Curry's eFG% on attempts from fewer than 10 feet is 64.7.
Golden State's offensive style is magnifying these personnel advantages.
The constant cutting and other forms of movement of Warrior players are allowing them to take strong advantage of Dallas' defensive deficiency in the interior.
Golden State's offense is so attractive in this series because it is scoring in droves outside of the ways in which one typically expects them to.
One thinks of the Warriors as a three-point shooting team.
The Warriors can obviously be such a team.
Including the regular season, they rank fourth in three-point percentage. In this series, they flexed their shooting prowess especially in Game 2.
However, they also have sundry inside scoring options, such as Looney, Wiggins, and even Curry.
Can Dallas Shoot As Well?
Dallas' reliance on three-point shooting is problematic because its shots are not falling as much as they need to.
The Mavericks lack Golden State's versatility. Whereas guys like Steph and increasingly Poole can flourish inside, Mav players like Finney-Smith and Kleber are more reliant on scoring from deep.
Whereas Poole, for example, scored 19 points in Game 1 with only one made three, Finney-Smith is averaging eight points in this series despite converting 41.1 percent of his three-point opportunities.
Besides more versatile scorers, Dallas needs more creativity. Not enough guys can create for others.
Not enough good shooting is happening, also, because of all the energy that these players have to invest in limiting Golden State's potent offense.
On top of everything else, Dallas is outmatched on the glass.
Parlay Verdict
Dallas is finished: it is tired, deficient in terms of personnel, and Golden State's scheme is magnifying Dallas' problems.
In this game, expect a Warrior victory and a lower-scoring game.
The one "over" in this series required strong shooting from deep, which has felt like an exception in this series and which will remain an exception given Dallas' tired legs and the Mavs' inability to push Golden State's offense.
Best Bet: Parlay Warriors +1 at -114 & Under 215.5 at -110 at +258 odds with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, May 28, 2022 at 10 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas
Why is Golden State Up 3-0?
The Warriors have dominated this series, winning Game 1 by 25 and Games 2 and 3 by nine.
They withstood Dallas' spectacular shooting in Game 2 and they remained unphased by a 40-point Luka Doncic effort in Game 3.
Dallas has given them their best basketball. The Mavs are arguably at their best when they're making threes, when Doncic is in his best form, and defense is also a strength of the team.
Golden State has withstood exhibitions of the Mavericks' best basketball.
Still, to say that the Mavericks have played their best would probably be condescending to a team that handled Utah before upending the defending Western Conference champs.
But the reason why Dallas hasn't played its best -- more precisely, Dallas hasn't played its best basketball for long enough periods to justify the claim that it has played its best basketball -- generates a bleak outlook for tonight's game.
I don't like the Mavericks tonight because they seem tired.
After all, they did have to play six games against Utah before playing seven against the Suns.
Plus, they don't have a lot of reliable players to occupy the court.
Roster Limitations
One reason why nothing will change in Game 4 is that Dallas' roster is limited.
The Mavericks cannot go out and make the changes to their roster that they need to make and that they will surely try to make during the offseason.
They are favored tonight despite helplessly having a deficient roster.
Relying on Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock for 40+ minutes does not exactly seem ideal.
But what other options do they have?
In Game 3, Maxi Kleber played 25 minutes and Spencer Dinwiddie played 32 minutes.
These are typical backups who are being asked to contribute serious amounts of minutes.
Trying to play Davis Bertans, who is averaging 2.7 points this series, and Frank Ntilikina, who remains scoreless this series, does not provide a solution because both players are embarrassed when they're on the court.
Compare this with Golden State. Outside of its star players, the Warriors ask Jordan Poole to contribute a lot of minutes.
Poole famously stepped up in Curry's absence during the regular season, evolving into a serious scoring threat, into someone who can always shoot a lot of threes but also be productive at all three levels.
Then, there's Andrew Wiggins, a former top pick who is likewise efficient from deep but also efficient inside the arc, and he's averaging 20.7 points in this series.
Star players aside, the Mavericks don't have nearly the same level of support from other players.
What Other Roster Limitations Exist?
The Warriors do also rely on some lesser-talented guys to give a lot of minutes.
Center is a well-known weak spot for them. Kevon Looney has never made an All-Star Game and he probably never will.
However, Looney enjoys the perfect matchup in this series because he faces a Maverick team that itself lacks a quality center and that seriously lacks rim protection.
Is Steph Curry Just A Shooter?
Not just Looney is scoring inside -- he's averaging 13.3 points per game -- but even Steph Curry is thriving at the basket.
In this series, Curry's eFG% on attempts from fewer than 10 feet is 64.7.
Golden State's offensive style is magnifying these personnel advantages.
The constant cutting and other forms of movement of Warrior players are allowing them to take strong advantage of Dallas' defensive deficiency in the interior.
Golden State's offense is so attractive in this series because it is scoring in droves outside of the ways in which one typically expects them to.
One thinks of the Warriors as a three-point shooting team.
The Warriors can obviously be such a team.
Including the regular season, they rank fourth in three-point percentage. In this series, they flexed their shooting prowess especially in Game 2.
However, they also have sundry inside scoring options, such as Looney, Wiggins, and even Curry.
Can Dallas Shoot As Well?
Dallas' reliance on three-point shooting is problematic because its shots are not falling as much as they need to.
The Mavericks lack Golden State's versatility. Whereas guys like Steph and increasingly Poole can flourish inside, Mav players like Finney-Smith and Kleber are more reliant on scoring from deep.
Whereas Poole, for example, scored 19 points in Game 1 with only one made three, Finney-Smith is averaging eight points in this series despite converting 41.1 percent of his three-point opportunities.
Besides more versatile scorers, Dallas needs more creativity. Not enough guys can create for others.
Not enough good shooting is happening, also, because of all the energy that these players have to invest in limiting Golden State's potent offense.
On top of everything else, Dallas is outmatched on the glass.
Parlay Verdict
Dallas is finished: it is tired, deficient in terms of personnel, and Golden State's scheme is magnifying Dallas' problems.
In this game, expect a Warrior victory and a lower-scoring game.
The one "over" in this series required strong shooting from deep, which has felt like an exception in this series and which will remain an exception given Dallas' tired legs and the Mavs' inability to push Golden State's offense.
Best Bet: Parlay Warriors +1 at -114 & Under 215.5 at -110 at +258 odds with BetOnline
