Golden State @ Tor. NBA Finals Gm. 2 - thoughts

Stew Baker

Pretty much a regular
Is there enough love for Toronto now? The "elite" team who now is everybody's darling? The team whose backers moved the line from the opener of G.S. -1 to Tor. -2 juiced?

A sizable portion of this move is the reaction to Iguodala coming down on his left leg after a rebound attempt, and limping away late in the 4th qtr. A lot of this reaction though looks like hysteria. My impression after reading the available info and quotes is that Iggy will be serviceable in Gm. 2 AT THE VERY LEAST. Granted, I'm putting a lot of weight on my impression, but I'm calling it like I see it.

Another factor contributing to the move, I believe, was Durant being officially confirmed out for game 2. However, anybody paying attention practically knew that anyway. Golden State held out the possibility that he would play in Gm. 3, but this was not a favorite. They were (and still are) targeting his return for Gm. 4. So, a lot points to the move on this game being an overreaction, which lends some value to Golden State. Then, a lot of the prosperity Toronto enjoyed in Gm. 1 resulted from their success double and triple teaming Curry. The adjustments made to this will swing the value more to Golden State. Also, Cousins will be a little better, now with some playing time under his belt and with the practices which will follow, and he'll see a few more, and better minutes.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Siakam is going to hit 78% of his shots in Gm. 2. And hey, as CTG member javin alluded to in another post, its very plausible that Golden State, whose offense relies on shooting and ball movement, would have been adversely affected by their 9 days off going into Gm. 1, They won't be subject. in Gm. 2, to the rust they may have been feeling in Gm. 1.

Little things add up. I think its an error to judge a matchup on the basis of one game with its own unique set of circumstances. I have to go against the sentiment here. I think there's enough in favor of Golden State to merit a play at +2 -05. And while you're at it, throw a little on the series at -120.
 
Series is -150 at my book for GS ‍♂️
Consensus is holding around -125. The books which have the series price in that range (4 major books that I'm looking at) have Warriors at +2 -05 for GM. 2. What spread does your book have on the Gm. 2?

I would have no interest in betting the series at the inflated price that you have.
 
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Consensus is holding around -125. The books which have the series price in that range (4 major books that I'm looking at) have Warriors at +2 -05 for GM. 2. What spread does your book have on the Gm. 2?

I would have no interest in betting the series at the inflated price that you have.
Warriors +2
 
The consensus series price has crept up to -135 since you posted 7 hrs. ago. Still, your -150 series price is out of whack with the spread of +2 for Gm. 2. Just about everybody would tell you you'd be better off with more than one book.
Lol thanks...it doesn't matter because I'm not betting the series price.
 
I could be wrong, but I don't think Siakam is going to hit 78% of his shots in Gm. 2.

Important point here.
 
Thanks for the shout out. Haha.

Before G1, I told myself to bet TOR on G1 and then GSW on G2. As it turns out, GSW was a bit sloppy with rust and Cousins disrupted the overall chemistry for a bit en route to a TOR win in G1. After seeing the game, it feels difficult to bet on GSW on G2 with Kawhi/Lowry struggling but seeing your post reminded me to go with the original plan.

GSW it is on G2.

If GSW do win, we might expect an inflated line for G3. I'm really hoping KD does try to come back which might set up a TOR cover. Let's see if the stars will fall into place.
 
Warriors shot well from 3 and Leonard was limited. Plenty of things that could make up for Siakam not shooting 80% again.
 
Warriors shot well from 3 and Leonard was limited. Plenty of things that could make up for Siakam not shooting 80% again.
Toronto will need a lot to repeat the result of Game 1. It can happen, but don't see any value on Raptors as favorites...
 
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