Cafa
Well-Known Member
Pick taken from my website:
As I already said, this is some paper-scissors-rock where GSW is scissors and DAL is paper. GSW has sweeped the Mavericks in the regular season, and did a similar thing the season before that, 3-1. People say, Dallas is #1, they have good defense, well - where was that defense and power in the regular season? Against the Warriors? Is it a coincidence and a bunch of bad days? When it was 1-0 for GSW, it was a coincidence. 3-1? Coincidence. 6-1? Coincidence. I don't think so.
Don Nelson spent 10 seasons coaching Dallas, and taught Avery Johnson everything he, as a coach, needs to know. We all know offense wins games and defense wins championships. Why is that? Because, in regular season, not too much tactics is involved as games are played too often. Tactics become a weapon only in playoff games. Now, everyone says Dallas is a playoff team. But, Golden State has the edge in tactics in this matchup. Avery Johnson is limited, while Don Nelson knows everything. He's an excellent coach, and if there's a team against which he has the biggest tactical advantage, it's the Mavericks. His own baby.
Golden State had to go 9-1 in order to qualify for the playoffs. That's how bad their season was, but their spirit is high and they have a winning atmosphere. Unlike them, Dallas rested their key players in the last few games, and I think they lost a part of their team chemistry. They'll get it back soon enough, but don't count on them having the same team chemistry at the moment when this game starts. It's too bad that the first game is played in Dallas, it really limits our betting options. However, Golden State is #1 team when it comes to difference in scoring in 1st and 2nd half. They score 11 points more in 1st half, which is not seen anywhere else in NBA.
When we add all these facts together, the bet is obvious. Golden State + points, 1st half. The odds for this game are very strange. Odds on Dallas are 1.16, and yet we see a small spread of -9.5. Bookies are confused. Still, the over/under line offers value also and it's a huge mistake by the bookies. This is how it is - if Golden State scores over 105, they win. If they score less than 100, they lose. And odds on them losing are 1.16. So? How many points do you expect from Dallas (season average - 100 scored, 93 conceded)? Dallas would be crazy to accept the run'n'gun style, it would jeopardize their chances to win. The line is overinflated and we'll take a teaser to make sure.
Just one more thing to add, I am proud of Nowitzki and his comment. "It will be fun to see who can impose his will". Spoken like a true sportsman.
Golden State +6.0 (first half), 1.90, 2/10. Pinnacle.
Under 220.0 points, 1.46, 5/10. Bet365.
GL!
As I already said, this is some paper-scissors-rock where GSW is scissors and DAL is paper. GSW has sweeped the Mavericks in the regular season, and did a similar thing the season before that, 3-1. People say, Dallas is #1, they have good defense, well - where was that defense and power in the regular season? Against the Warriors? Is it a coincidence and a bunch of bad days? When it was 1-0 for GSW, it was a coincidence. 3-1? Coincidence. 6-1? Coincidence. I don't think so.
Don Nelson spent 10 seasons coaching Dallas, and taught Avery Johnson everything he, as a coach, needs to know. We all know offense wins games and defense wins championships. Why is that? Because, in regular season, not too much tactics is involved as games are played too often. Tactics become a weapon only in playoff games. Now, everyone says Dallas is a playoff team. But, Golden State has the edge in tactics in this matchup. Avery Johnson is limited, while Don Nelson knows everything. He's an excellent coach, and if there's a team against which he has the biggest tactical advantage, it's the Mavericks. His own baby.
Golden State had to go 9-1 in order to qualify for the playoffs. That's how bad their season was, but their spirit is high and they have a winning atmosphere. Unlike them, Dallas rested their key players in the last few games, and I think they lost a part of their team chemistry. They'll get it back soon enough, but don't count on them having the same team chemistry at the moment when this game starts. It's too bad that the first game is played in Dallas, it really limits our betting options. However, Golden State is #1 team when it comes to difference in scoring in 1st and 2nd half. They score 11 points more in 1st half, which is not seen anywhere else in NBA.
When we add all these facts together, the bet is obvious. Golden State + points, 1st half. The odds for this game are very strange. Odds on Dallas are 1.16, and yet we see a small spread of -9.5. Bookies are confused. Still, the over/under line offers value also and it's a huge mistake by the bookies. This is how it is - if Golden State scores over 105, they win. If they score less than 100, they lose. And odds on them losing are 1.16. So? How many points do you expect from Dallas (season average - 100 scored, 93 conceded)? Dallas would be crazy to accept the run'n'gun style, it would jeopardize their chances to win. The line is overinflated and we'll take a teaser to make sure.
Just one more thing to add, I am proud of Nowitzki and his comment. "It will be fun to see who can impose his will". Spoken like a true sportsman.
Golden State +6.0 (first half), 1.90, 2/10. Pinnacle.
Under 220.0 points, 1.46, 5/10. Bet365.
GL!
:shake:
illow: 
. 
